Australia’s fertility rate continues to fall

Australia's fertility rate continues to fall according to the recently released annual births data by the ABS

It confirmed the steady decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) in Australia over the past decade.

However, at the same time, the number of births remains at historically high levels.

This juxtaposition is a great example of why numbers and rates provide greater insights into the drivers of population change and the impact on age cohorts.

The annual births data also presents an opportunity to examine trends in smaller geographic regions.

How many births are there in Australia?

In 2019, there were 305,832 births registered in Australia, a 3% decline from the 315,147 births registered in 2018.

Although most births are registered the year in which they occur, there are occasions when processing lags impact the data.

The ABS explains that births in NSW were higher in 2018 due to processing lags and other measures, which may have artificially inflated the figure for that year.

Birth registrations have topped 300,000 since 2008, with the exception of 2014 when the number just fell short (299,697).

What is the fertility rate?

Despite the high number of births in Australia, the TFR has recorded a steady decline over the past decade.

The figure stood at 1.66 in 2019, the lowest on record.

The TFR can be explained as the number of children each woman can expect to have during her lifetime and is a critical social indicator.

The TFR differs by state and region.

Victoria and the ACT recorded the lowest rates in 2019 (1.53 and 1.57 respectively), whereas the Northern Territory (NT) recorded the highest (1.84).

The NT typically records the highest TFR in Australia, partly on account of its larger Indigenous Australian population.

Until recently, the TFR in the NT was above 2.1 ie above replacement level.

Fertility trends in Victoria

The map below shows the 2019 TFR for LGAs in Victoria.

As mentioned above, Victoria recorded a TFR of just 1.53 in 2019.

This was well below the 21st century peak of around 1.8-1.9 recorded between 2007 and 2009.

In 2019, there were 77,220 births registered in Victoria, compared to 78,488 in 2018.

About Simone Alexander Simone Alexander is a demographic consultant with more than 20 years of experience working in both the public and private sectors. She uses her expertise to blog about demographic trends, housing and planning issues in Australia’s cities and regions.
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