A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats… BUT

By:

Do you understand the best way to invest in a rising property market?

As it currently stands, our capital and regional cities are primed for growth over the next year or two.

There is no doubt most property markets and properties will do well over this period.

Houses And MoneyBut what happens when the cycle moves on?

Well, it was John F Kennedy who coined the headline phrase back in 1963 in relation to an improving US economy.

But it is perhaps the addition to that phrase, credited to Warren Buffet, that may have helped us with the answer to the question of what happens next.

only when the tide goes out to do you discover who has been swimming naked.

While the next few years may be prosperous for many property investors, it is what happens beyond this cycle that will become crucial.

Here are my thoughts

Short Term Focus

The good thing about getting in at the bottom of another cycle is that your chances of your property growing in value is relatively high.

The problem is that people only focus on the short term and getting into the market, so they receive the benefit of capital growth.

Their investment runway is being cut short as their vision is not extended beyond the next few years.

As a result, they are sucked in by the latest news headline or the next potential “hotspot”.

They look at short-term data like median house prices, auction clearance rates, and vacancy rates or the last 3 years of growth to make their decision.

This data can change from week to week and is not as reliable as longer-term fundamentals like wages growth, incomes, supply and demand, and historical growth.

The problem is many investors chose a property or location first and then search for the data to support their decision.

As we know, you can always find data or an opinion to support your viewpoint by doing a quick search.

So one could argue it is far from analytical research.

What Happens Next?

Property prices will not continue to rise at such a rapid rate.

As a part of any normal property cycle there will also be a downturn in our property markets.

But in a rising market and in the heat of the moment, this can often be forgotten.

Bw1

And this is usually when you discover who has been swimming naked.

The investors who have put the property ahead of any real form of research or critical analysis.

We see who has taken shortcuts, bought emotionally, or purchased on a gut feel rather than prioritising the fundamentals and followed a logical process.

Buy SellIn our bigger capital cities, well-located properties with strong, long-term fundamentals could retract anywhere from 0% – 5%, in superior areas it softens but rarely drops.

Secondary locations including smaller capital cities and regions will usually come back somewhere between 5 – 15%.

While outer locations where I suggest buyers have been more speculators than investors could fall significantly more.

A Tale of Two Cities

Perhaps a great example in recent times to highlight these points is to look at the Perth and Sydney Property markets.

Rewind back to 2007 and a fast-rising tide (mining) was lifting Perth property prices to record levels.

So much so, that at one point in that year, Perth’s median house price was on par with Sydney.

In the latter part of the cycle, there were the usual shortcuts and fear of missing out leading to emotional and careless decisions.

Bw2

It is what happened next that highlighted the importance of sticking to a process and prioritising property fundamentals.

As we now know, Sydney prices went on to double while Perth prices initially fell before trending sideways for the best part of a decade.

It was in the more volatile regions further out though where the real pain was felt.

Speculative areas like the heavily mined Pilbara region saw property prices free-falling from $800,000 to less than $300,000.

Bw3

In Summary

Here we are in the early stages of another rising property market.

The current market tide will certainly lift our property market causing prices to rise.

Property commentators and spruikers are having a field day using irrelevant data to convince investors that a “property” or certain location is the way to go.

Some investors buying on a whim and with emotion buy into this and think that any property will likely do well in the short term.

Buying PropertyThey do very little research and any data they do analyse is more to look for a reason to confirm their already made decision.

These investors do not understand that they are likely making a medium to long term decision based on the immediate short term.

They should be looking to make the decision as part of a structured, longer-term plan to ensure the property moves them closer to their longer-term goal.

Understanding their reason for investing and then understanding longer-term fundamental data should be a priority.

Then, in the downturn phase, your chances of values falling substantially are very low and values will recover quicker to build wealth faster.

Following a process is critical otherwise, you may be caught swimming naked once the tide goes out.

Now is the time to take advantage of the opportunities the current property markets are offering.

Metropole Team

Sure the markets are moving on, but not all properties are going to increase in value. Now, more than ever, correct property selection will be critical.

You can trust the team at Metropole to provide you with direction, guidance, and results.

Whether you’re a beginner or an experienced investor, at times like we are currently experiencing you need an advisor who takes a holistic approach to your wealth creation and that’s exactly what you get from the multi-award-winning team at Metropole.

We help our clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through a range of services including:

  1. Strategic property advice. – Allow us to build a Strategic Property Plan for you and your family.  Planning is bringing the future into the present so you can do something about it now! Click here to learn more
  2. Buyer’s agency – As Australia’s most trusted buyers’ agents we’ve been involved in over $4Billion worth of transactions creating wealth for our clients and we can do the same for you. Our on the ground teams in Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane bring you years of experience and perspective – that’s something money just can’t buy. We’ll help you find your next home or an investment-grade property.  Click here to learn how we can help you.
  3. Wealth Advisory – We can provide you with strategic tailored financial planning and wealth advice. Click here to learn more about we can help you.
  4. Property Management – Our stress-free property management services help you maximise your property returns. Click here to find out why our clients enjoy a vacancy rate considerably below the market average, our tenants stay an average of 3 years, and our properties lease 10 days faster than the market average.
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About

Brett Warren is Director of Metropole Properties Brisbane and uses his 13 plus years property investment experience to advise clients how to grow, protect and pass on their build their wealth through property. Visit: Metropole Brisbane


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