Key takeaways
Crises feel catastrophic in the moment, but rarely cause lasting damage. History shows markets recover and often grow stronger after wars, recessions, and global shocks.
Short-term volatility is not the same as long-term loss. Selling in panic turns temporary declines into permanent mistakes.
Australia’s economy is more resilient than headlines suggest. Strong commodity exports, population growth, and key industries continue to underpin long-term strength.
Property markets typically slow in activity, not fall in value. Low supply, strong demand, and owner-occupier dominance protect housing from sharp downturns.
Uncertainty creates opportunity for strategic investors. Less competition and better buying conditions reward those who stay calm, prepared, and long-term focused.
Imagine you had sold all your property and investments during the 2003 Iraq War.
Or when the GFC hit in 2008. Or when COVID-19 locked the world down in 2020.
Each time, the headlines were apocalyptic. Each time, the pundits predicted catastrophe.
And each time, the doomsayers were proven spectacularly wrong.
Right now, another crisis is testing our resolve.
The US and Israel have launched a military campaign against Iran. Oil prices have spiked above US$119 a barrel. The RBA has hiked rates again. Australia’s share market lost more than $100 billion in a single session.
And the headlines are, once again, screaming disaster.
But before you sell, pause, or panic, please read my thoughts below carefully.
Because if history is any guide, what feels like a catastrophe today is often the very moment the foundations of tomorrow’s wealth are being quietly laid.
What’s actually happening right now
On 28 February 2026, US and Israeli forces struck Iran. The conflict escalated quickly, with Iran threatening to restrict the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20–25% of the world’s daily oil and gas supply flows.
Here is what we know:
- Oil prices surged above US$119 per barrel before pulling back below US$90.
- The ASX shed more than $100 billion in a single session before a partial recovery.
- The RBA hiked the cash rate to 4.1%, citing inflation fuelled partly by energy costs.
- Treasury is modelling inflation reaching the “mid to high fours” if the conflict drags on.
- National Cabinet met in emergency session on fuel security and economic resilience.
None of this is trivial, but the critical point too many investors miss is that there is an enormous difference between short-term pain and long-term structural damage.
Confusing the two is one of the most expensive mistakes an investor can make.
Australia’s economy: more resilient than you think
Australia’s economic model rests on four durable pillars - mining and resources, agriculture, tourism, and international education.
I know that some critics call it unsophisticated, but these four pillars don’t go anywhere.
They are tied to structural global trends that only strengthen over time: a world that keeps urbanising, a population that keeps growing, and a middle class that keeps seeking education and travel.
And here is something that most people miss: when global energy prices spike, Australia doesn’t just suffer.
As a major LNG and coal exporter, surging commodity prices lift our export revenues too. In fact, the government is talking about increasing taxes on these.
The national income picture is far more positive than the “oil prices are bad” headlines suggest. Yes, consumers feel it at the bowser, and higher fuel costs cascade through transport, food, and construction.
But the structural foundations of our economy remain formidable.
Let’s zoom out and look at history.
Across 80+ years of geopolitical shocks, the pattern is remarkably consistent: stock markets dip sharply, sentiment turns negative, and then - usually faster than anyone expects - they recover. Often to new highs.
| Crisis / Conflict | Initial ASX Drop | 12-Month Outcome | Property Response |
| Gulf War (1990–91) | ~5–8% | Full recovery within 12 months | Prices rose in most capitals |
| 9/11 Attacks (2001) | ~8–12% | Above pre-crisis within 2 years | Unaffected — continued rising |
| GFC (2008–09) | ~55% | Multi-year recovery; RBA cut rates | Brief dip, then stimulus surge |
| COVID-19 Crash (2020) | ~37% | Record highs within 12 months | Fastest rises in 50 years |
| Iran War / ASX 200 (Mar 2026) | $100B+ in one session | History suggests recovery likely | Fundamentals unchanged |
Historical ASX and Australian property market responses to major global crises. Sources: Owen Analytics, CoreLogic.
The COVID crash is the most instructive example.
Stock markets fell 37% in weeks and property pessimists forecast a 20–30% housing crash.
Instead, the ASX hit new highs within 12 months, and property recorded some of the fastest price rises in fifty years.
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
— Warren Buffett
Note: Volatility is not permanent loss. Short-term market volatility feels catastrophic when you’re living through it. But unless you sell, it remains unrealised. Every major geopolitical shock has eventually been followed by recovery — often with above-average returns in the years that follow.
Interest rates and consumer confidence: watch both
Higher oil prices raise the cost of transport and logistics, which feeds into almost every good in the economy, meaning inflation will stay elevated.
The Big Four banks now forecast at least one more 25bp RBA hike before any easing cycle begins.
Shane Oliver, AMP’s chief economist, estimates that oil stabilising around US$100 per barrel could push Australian inflation to approximately 4.6%.
What this means for borrowers
Every 25bp hike adds roughly $75–$80 per month on a $500,000 mortgage.
An additional hike to 4.35% is manageable for most, given wages growth of 3.4% year-on-year.
Maintain your buffers, review your fixed/variable split, and avoid over-leveraging. But remember: interest rates are a cycle, not a permanent state.
When the conflict resolves and inflation eases, the RBA will cut — and property markets respond strongly when rate cycles turn.
- Also read:This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State March 17th 2026
- Also read:Melbourne property market forecast for 2026 | Is it a good time to invest in Melbourne?
- Also read:Latest Property Price Forecasts Revealed. Australian Property Market Outlook 2026: Where To Now After The Rate Rise.
- Also read:Brisbane Property Market Forecast [2026] – What’s Ahead & Where to Invest
- Also read:Sydney property market forecast for 2026. Is it a good time to invest in Sydney?
There is also a psychological dimension worth watching.
When global tensions rise, people feel less optimistic, and they hesitate.
Buyers step back and delay property purchases, auction clearance rates fall and days on market blow out.
But a slowdown in transaction activity is not a crash in values.
When buyers pull back, sellers do too.
History shows Australian housing markets absorb uncertainty through lower volumes, not lower prices.
Why Australia’s housing market has barely blinked, and won’t
Go back through five decades of Australian property data and look at what happened to prices during every major global crisis.
The answer, more often than not: not much. And in the years following those crises, prices accelerated.
| Period | Global Crisis | Housing Price Growth | Key Driver |
| 1973–76 | OPEC Oil Crisis | +34–83% (capitals) | Inflation surge; tight supply |
| 2000–03 | Dot-com bust + 9/11 | +33–67% (capitals) | Rate cuts; investor demand |
| 2008–11 | Global Financial Crisis | +6–12% (capitals) | Stimulus; record-low rates |
| 2020–23 | COVID-19 Pandemic | +14–52% (capitals) | Ultra-low rates; migration rebound |
Australian capital city house price performance during major global crises. Sources: CoreLogic, ABS, RBA.
Five structural reasons explain this resilience:
- Illiquidity as protection: You can’t sell property in a panic in thirty seconds. Transaction costs and timeframes create a natural circuit-breaker.
- Owner-occupiers dominate: Two-thirds of buyers purchase to live in their dwellings, and their decisions are driven by life, not daily headlines.
- Supply remains chronically short: Australia has under-built for years. Vacancy rates are at historic lows. A Middle East conflict doesn’t fix our planning system.
- Population growth continues: Over 300,000 people are added to Australia’s population annually. That demand doesn’t pause for geopolitical events, in fact, we are seen as a secure place to live.
- In a crisis, Australians buy property: There is a deep cultural instinct to move capital toward bricks and mortar when the world feels uncertain. This flight-to-safety behaviour has characterised every major crisis period on record.
Note: “In times of crisis, Australians tend to gravitate toward property. It’s a deep-seated cultural instinct backed by decades of data.”
The opportunity in the chaos
For well-capitalised, long-term property investors, periods of uncertainty like this one are not to be feared. They are to be prepared for.
When buyer confidence softens, competition reduces.
Vendors who need to sell become more willing to negotiate.
The frothy, FOMO-driven conditions that make markets dangerous to buy into give way to a more measured environment where smart, patient capital can move strategically.
The investors who built generational wealth in Australian property were not the ones who waited for perfect certainty. They were the ones who understood that perfect certainty never comes, and that the cost of waiting is usually higher than the cost of acting with conviction.
What smart investors are doing right now
Reviewing buffers and stress-testing repayments at 4.5%+ rates.
Focusing on markets with genuine supply constraints and strong population growth.
Maintaining long-term strategy and tuning out daily noise.
Keeping dry powder available for compelling opportunities. And above all, not selling quality assets out of fear.
The bottom line: don’t stop believing in Australia
Wars end. Oil prices normalise. Central banks cut rates. Share markets recover - they always have.
And through it all, well-located Australian property has done what it has done for fifty years: risen in value over the long term.
The fundamental case for Australian residential property - built on population growth, housing undersupply, cultural preference for home ownership, and long-term economic resilience - has not changed. A conflict thousands of kilometres away does not change those foundations.
Tip: “Don’t stop believing in the Australian business model. This is a good and successful corner of the globe.”
The noise is loud. The headlines are alarming. But the fundamentals of this country remain absolutely intact.
The investors who will look back on 2026 with great satisfaction are the ones who read the data carefully, kept their nerve, and focused on what really matters.
Stay strategic. Stay calm. Stay invested. The long game belongs to those who play it.
Ready to turn uncertainty into opportunity?
Knowing what’s happening in the world is one thing. Knowing exactly what to do about it for your specific situation is another.
At Metropole, our Wealth Strategists work with investors every day, not just in calm markets, but especially in moments like this one.
Because it is precisely in periods of uncertainty that the decisions you make (and the mistakes you avoid) have the greatest long-term impact on your financial future.
A conversation with a Metropole Wealth Strategist will help you:
- Understand exactly how the current conflict and rising interest rates affect your specific portfolio
- Identify genuine opportunities emerging in a softer, less competitive market
- Stress-test your financial position for a higher-for-longer rate environment
- Build a clear, written strategy so you’re moving with purpose, not reacting to headlines
- Protect what you’ve already built while positioning for the growth that follows periods like this
The investors who come out of this period ahead won’t be the ones who got lucky. They’ll be the ones who had a plan and the right people in their corner.
Get the clarity and confidence you need. Click here now and organise a complimentary chat with a Metropole Wealth Strategist.
Times like these separate strategic investors from everyone else.
