Five Rings, Two Fingers

Every time the Olympic torch gets passed to a new city, the property cheerleaders wheel out the same playbook: values will soar, suburbs near venues will boom, investors will make a fortune.

It’s an easy story to sell because it mixes infrastructure spending, global attention, and a convenient deadline.

But history tells us that the story is far messier – and for Brisbane, downright dangerous to take at face value.

Four things

First, let’s deal with the comparisons.

The boosters love to point to Sydney’s growth leading up to the 2000 Olympics.

But Sydney property prices surged in that era because of broader economic settings – low inflation, credit deregulation, and a demographic upswing in demand, which importantly including the acceleration of the trend towards a two income household becoming the norm.

In short the 2000 Olympics didn’t create that; they happened already.

London 2012? Again, prices rose – but London prices always rise.

Overlay the Games with the city’s chronic undersupply, its role as a global safe-haven, and the impact of post-GFC monetary stimulus.

Hard to credit the Games as the magic wand.

As for Paris, pointing to one year of “30% growth” around transport hubs is cherry-picking at best, ignoring that most of Paris has barely kept pace with inflation.

Rio? Prices trebled pre-Games, then fell into a ditch for years.

Tokyo? The pandemic scrambled everything.

Second, there’s the Brisbane context.

In the past five years, house values have already risen 92% according to the media report.

My work suggest a 86% rise since 2020, but that’s being just petty!

Regardless, if it is 86% or 92%, that’s the strongest run of any capital city in the country.

Moreover, to blithely suggest they’ll rise another 70% by 2032 ignores the basics: affordability is already shot, mortgage stress is mounting and buyers are starting to question if the current price points offer ‘value’.

And where did the magic 70% forecast come from?

Well, between 1993 and 2000 Sydney’s median house values rose by 67.5%. So maybe it is rinse and repeat.

In 1993 the Sydney median was $160,000. By August 2000 it was $268,000. That’s a $108,000 lift in seven years – about $15,500 per annum.

Importantly, in late 1993 Sydney’s median house value was just 1.2 times the region’s gross household income.

By the 2000 Games, despite the nearly 70% price hike, the $268,000 median was still only 2.2 times local household income. Still very affordable.

Now fast forward to Brisbane today – in this case the Brisbane City Council area.

The median house price sits at $1.325 million, already 6.1 times the area’s gross household income. That’s firmly in “severely unaffordable” territory.

If the 70% promise plays out, that would mean a $925,000 lift in the median house over the next seven years to $2.25 million. That’s an extra $132,000 a year! And if the past seven years repeat – with gross median household income rising just 8.2% between 2018 and 2025 – this projected $2.25 million median would be 9.6 times household income.

Is that even remotely feasible?

Third, the Olympics doesn’t actually create housing demand.

It creates demand for hotel rooms, temporary rentals, and infrastructure.

If anything, it soaks up labour and materials that could otherwise be building homes.

Olympic works are already set to tighten the construction labour pool and lift wages – pushing up costs for homebuilders and worsening the supply crunch. That’s not a recipe for sustained, broad-based property price growth. That’s a recipe for a bottleneck.

Fourth, the “international profile” argument is wildly overstated.

Brisbane is not suddenly going to become a global city because of a two-week sporting event.

Ask Athens. Ask Rio. Ask Montreal.

These places got the debt, the white elephants, and the hangovers.

The idea that cashed-up foreigners will flood into Brisbane real estate in 2033 because they saw the cauldron lighting on TV is fanciful.

My outlook

Yes, prices could still rise – but more likely because of the sheer tightness of housing supply rather than Olympic hype.

Brisbane has been consistently undersupplying new homes relative to population growth. That imbalance alone could drive another 20%, maybe 25% increase between now and 2032.

But that’s a long way from 70%.

And here’s the rub: for mine, Brisbane already looks overvalued.

More likely than not, we are heading for a post-Olympics bust.

History is littered with cities that borrowed big, built fast, and then endured the comedown once the closing ceremony fireworks fizzled.

Add in Queensland’s ballooning state debt and you have the makings of a very sobering hangover.

End note

So let’s cut through the Olympic sugar-hit myth.

Brisbane’s housing market will be shaped by population flows, interest rates, wage growth, and above all supply.

Not fireworks, mascots, or corporate hospitality tents.

The Games may help spruce up the city, but they won’t magically make property values defy gravity.

For homeowners and investors, the real risk is mistaking a one-off event for a structural trend.

History suggests the hangover often lasts longer than the party.

About Michael Matusik Michael is director of independent property advisory Matusik Property Insights. He is independent, perceptive and to the point; has helped over 550 new residential developments come to fruition and writes his insightful Matusik Missive