By Michael Yardney January 22, 2025

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Demographic Trends for 2025: What to Expect This Year – Part 3

Michael Yardney's Commentary
Demographic Trends for 2025: What to Expect This Year – Part 3

Key takeaways

Inflation is likely to return to the RBA's target range, paving the way for potential interest rate cuts in 2025. Borrowing costs will decrease but remain higher than pre-pandemic levels due to sustained demand-driven pressures. Investors should prepare for "relatively expensive money" and focus on investment fundamentals instead of timing the market.

Key industries (mining, agriculture, tourism, international education) remain strong despite global challenges. Tourism and education exports are rebounding, with international borders fully open and demand surging. Population growth from immigration continues to support economic stability and housing market fundamentals.

Millennials are reshaping spending habits, favouring convenience, community, and lifestyle-focused products. Baby boomers remain active spenders, rewriting retirement norms.

Shopping centres are evolving into community hubs, while "third spaces" like play centres and co-working facilities gain popularity. Retailers focusing on eco-friendly, family-oriented, and subscription-based products are poised for growth.

The pay gap is closing among non-parents under 50, driven by women’s educational gains and more inclusive workplace policies. Companies that champion gender diversity and flexibility will attract top talent.

Rising mental health challenges, especially among young women, underscore the need for supportive corporate cultures and public initiatives. Businesses that prioritise wellness programs and flexible work arrangements will benefit from improved engagement and retention.

Vaping’s health risks and environmental impacts are under scrutiny, with stricter regulations expected. Public campaigns and consumer education will likely mirror the success of anti-smoking initiatives.

The trends shaping 2025 present both challenges and opportunities. From navigating economic shifts to capitalising on demographic and societal changes, staying informed is key. Strategic planning and adaptability will allow businesses and investors to thrive in this dynamic environment.

2025 is already shaping up to be an “interesting” year.

It’s clear that the demographic and economic landscape is shifting in ways that will redefine how we live, work, and invest.

Understanding these trends isn't just academic—it's a roadmap for thriving in a rapidly evolving environment, especially for property investors in business people.

Over the last 2 weeks, Simon Kuestenmacher and I have a series of episodes where we highlight the demographic trends we expect will shape the year ahead.

If you haven’t watched these episodes or read our commentary, you can catch up with Part 1 here and Part 2 here.

In this final instalment, we will outline even more demographic and economic trends to watch out for in 2025 and what they mean for you.

Inside Australia’s Future: Trends That Will Impact Every Generation in 2025

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Inflation and interest rates: what lies ahead

After several years of elevated inflation, 2025 is set to bring some relief.

In fact, inflation is likely to settle back within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range, setting the stage for potential interest rate cuts in the first half of this year.

What does this mean for you?

Interest rate dynamics: Rate cuts will lower borrowing costs, but don’t expect a return to the near-zero rates we enjoyed over COVID-19 or the relatively low interest rates we experienced in the decade before that. With millennials being the largest generation hitting their peak spending years, and baby boomers continuing to spend actively, demand-driven pressures are likely to keep rates moderately high in the long term as the RBA attempts to keep inflation under control.
Investment strategy: For property investors and business owners, this means planning for an environment of “relatively expensive money.” If you’re holding out for bargain-basement interest rates to make your next big move, think again. The best strategy is to focus on the fundamentals of good investment opportunities rather than trying to time the market.

Australia’s economic resilience: built on solid foundations

Despite all the geopolitical problems around the world and global disruptions, Australia’s economy is likely to remain robust in the year ahead, supported by its well-established pillars: mining, agriculture, tourism, and international education.

These industries are not just surviving but thriving, underpinning long-term economic stability.

Tourism rebound: With international borders fully reopened and pent-up demand driving a surge in inbound travel, Australia’s tourism industry is experiencing a golden period. This benefits not only traditional tourist hotspots but also regional areas.
Education exports: International education continues to be a strong contributor to the economy, with Australian universities and vocational institutions attracting record numbers of students from Asia and beyond.
Mining and agriculture exports are likely to remain strong in the coming year but may slow down a little from previous highs due to a falling Australian dollar and overseas economic challenges

These economic pillars create job stability and with continuing strong population growth underpinned by immigration, the fundamentals for our housing markets remain strong.

Changing consumption patterns: new opportunities for businesses

Millennials, now in their 40s, are driving significant changes in how and where we spend our money as a nation.

At the same time, baby boomers are rewriting the narrative of retirement by continuing to spend freely -which is very different to the way their parents managed their golden years.

Shopping and third spaces: Shopping centres are thriving as they evolve into community and entertainment hubs. Millennials, living in smaller homes and balancing work-from-home arrangements, are driving the popularity of “third spaces” like indoor play centres and childcare facilities. These spaces provide convenience and community while addressing the practicalities of modern family life.
Retail resilience: Retailers focused on home improvement, lifestyle products, and family needs are poised for success. Businesses that align with millennial spending habits like subscription services, eco-friendly products, and family-oriented activities will see strong growth.

Narrowing the gender pay gap: a generational shift

The gender pay gap will continue to shrink, particularly among non-parents under 50.

However, the gap is likely to persist among primary caregivers, reflecting the disproportionate burden of childcare on women.

Here’s why Simon Kuestenmacher believes the future is brighter:

Educational gains: Women now outperform men in education, a key driver of their future income. This shift is reshaping household dynamics, with more women becoming the primary earners and influencing workplace policies around flexibility and childcare.
Generational leadership: Gen X and millennials, with their focus on gender equality, are moving into leadership positions, ensuring that workplaces become more inclusive and equitable.
What this means for business: Companies that support gender diversity and offer flexible work arrangements will not only attract top talent but also align with societal shifts.

Mental health: challenges and opportunities

One of the more sobering trends that Simon Kuestenmacher is expecting for the coming year is the rise in mental health issues, particularly among young Australians.

While greater awareness and reduced stigma are positive developments, the data also reflects the growing pressures of modern life.

Key demographics: Women in their early 20s now report the highest levels of poor mental health. This raises questions about how these challenges will evolve over their lifecycle and what interventions are needed.
Corporate and public roles: Businesses that prioritise mental health through wellness programs, flexible work options, and supportive cultures will see stronger employee engagement and retention. Public initiatives to address loneliness and stress will also grow, creating opportunities for innovation in mental health services.

Vaping: the next frontier in public health

Simon Kuestenmacher believes that Australia’s anti-smoking campaigns are a global success story, but vaping has emerged as a new challenge.

With its health risks and environmental impacts, vaping is under increasing scrutiny.

Regulation on the horizon: The current lack of oversight regarding vaping is alarming, with many vaping products mislabeled and containing harmful chemicals. Stricter regulations are inevitable, and businesses in health advocacy or sustainable product development have an opportunity to make an impact.
Consumer awareness: Public education campaigns will likely target vaping with the same intensity as anti-smoking efforts, shifting perceptions and behaviours over the coming years.

Conclusion: thriving in 2025 and beyond

The trends shaping 2025 reflect a mix of challenges and opportunities.

As we often say, demographics may not be destiny, but they provide a roadmap to the future.

From shifting interest rates and evolving consumption patterns to societal changes like the narrowing gender pay gap and rising mental health awareness, the year ahead offers plenty to navigate and capitalise on.

By doing so, you can turn the trends of 2025 into opportunities for your own growth and success.