Each major Australian capital city is faced with predicted population growth of millions more people within just the next 25 years.
In Brisbane it’s over 1.5 million more, Sydney will cop another nearly 4 million, and Melbourne over 3 million more people.
Here’s a scary fact: at current rates of cars to people, Brisbane will also have another 1 million more cars, Sydney will have around 3 million more, and Melbourne around 2 million more.
Unless we ban personal ownership of cars, what are the future choices we need to be thinking about, now?
Before we run through a list of the various options, first a challenge: whatever the “solution” to an imminent urban congestionastrophe, let’s try to agree that whatever succeeds needs to provide a personalised mobility solution: it needs to be available on demand (there when I need it), offer infinitely variable routes (takes me where I want to go and when I want to go, which differs every day), and can carry my stuff (from groceries to whatever).
Ideally, it’s also expandable (can carry more than one person when I have someone travelling with me) and offers good range and rapid recharge/refuelling.
Sounds a lot like a personal car doesn’t it?
This probably also explains why they have proven so successful in meeting community needs.
But what are the other options in the future?
Here goes…
It’s been touted as something of a solution to car ownership but doesn’t seem to address congestion so much.
Plus, things like Goget (a car-sharing app) have struggled.
Perhaps having one parked in our garage, ready and waiting, is still just too convenient?
Passenger rail
The great hope of many but, in my opinion, never to repeat its historic 19th and 20th century popularity.
The routes are fixed, the overhead wires are fixed, the stations are fixed, and the schedules are fixed.
It struggles to serve the realities of modern life with multiple trips and different routes daily.
It isn’t convenient for carrying our stuff and mostly suits the 9 to 5 centralised office worker market, which is shrinking globally.
The average CBD share of metro-wide jobs for a city in a modern western economy is around 13% - and that was before the ‘work from anywhere’ thing started to take off post-Covid.
It actually carries very few people (just 10% of work trips across capitals in Australia using pre-Covid numbers from 2016 – the 2021 journey to work numbers being Covid affected) and is frightfully expensive – especially underground.
At over $100 million per kilometre on the surface, you’d struggle to find a more expensive and less popular mode of travel.
Worldwide, infrastructure projects with massively blown budgets and underperforming passenger numbers often feature passenger rail (except in China, where everything is different).
Buses
Not as popular as rail (5% of passengers in Australian capitals) but more popular than trains in Brisbane - possibly because they service a wider variety of routes using the road network.
Buses can be re-routed with ease and bus stops are low capital-intensive investments.
But they are still not “on demand” or offer personalised routes, nor are they very convenient for doing the shopping.
They have been around a long time but the mode share has stubbornly not moved much.
Unlikely to do so in the future either.
Metro
Trackless trams or metros are a modern solution that may gain a lot of support.
They don’t require permanent rail or overhead wires, they are electric and potentially autonomous.
They provide a higher level of comfort than buses and can be rerouted using the road network if needed (all of which makes them much cheaper than trains).
They can also turn corners (which trains struggle with) plus in Brisbane they are promised as a high-frequency service (so no need to check a schedule).
Metro stations are more capital intensive than traditional bus stops, and like other public transport modes, aren’t exactly the preferred way to do the groceries, visit the doctor, or get the kids to school. Still, in all likelihood, a big step forward in the future.
Ferries
“Believe me, my young friend, there is nothing – absolutely nothing – half so much worth doing as simply messing about in boats.”
So said Ratty to Mole in Wind in the Willows.
Ratty was right – a more pleasant way to travel is hard to find.
But when it comes to solving congestion by providing a meaningful alternative to cars, ferries aren’t the go-to choice.
They are confined to waterways for starters.
And they don’t usually go near shops or schools.
They are expensive to operate and maintain (ferries need terminals and require a lot of maintenance) on a per-passenger basis.
The lucky few who can make use of these on a regular basis can count themselves very fortunate.
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Cycling & walking
Fun fact: three times as many people walk to work (3.2%) as bicycle (around 1%).
The numbers on active transport are an interesting read.
Active travel works for people when their jobs are close to where they live.
Any more than a few kilometres away though, and walking or cycling drops right down.
Hint to urban planners: don’t segregate future housing from future workplaces and you might see more active travel.
On the downside though, climate (too hot, too cold, too wet, or too unpredictable) are factors difficult to overcome.
It’s also difficult to carry your shopping bags any great distance (unless you steal the supermarket trolley which the visual evidence says happens a lot).
Unlikely to ever make a big dent in urban congestion, however appealing the idea is.
Uber buses
Yet to gain a lot of traction here are Uber buses – a way of tailoring schedules and routes to users.
It’s working overseas and I witnessed a non-tech version in Vanuatu a few years ago (the bus driver asked where you were going and, based on where all passengers were going, worked out the route from there).
The Uber bus is typically a smaller bus that varies routes and schedules around user demand.
Sounds great in theory, provided they don’t cancel on you, or hit you with a surge.
The technology platform that makes this possible ought to be something public transport agencies look into further.
Will it bust congestion?
Unlikely, but with support it could make an impact.
Flying cars & taxis
They’re coming, and I want one!
Brisbane has announced the promise of flying taxis by the time of the 2032 Olympics.
Other cities will follow.
The technology is proven and trials of various personal flying cars are underway with some already available – if you have the cash.
One thing promoters haven’t counted on is Australia’s love of regulation, and I fear that Federal aviation authorities will pose so many constraints on operations in the sky that it will be decades before private users will be buzzing around like George Jetson.
As for parking one at your local shops… yeah, nah – that just takes shopping centre parking to a third dimension!!!
Scooters & e-bikes
Love them or hate them, there’s no denying they’ve been rapidly adopted where they’ve been allowed.
For shorter trips they are brilliant.
But they aren’t cheap to hire, and scooters are useless for carrying anything more than the wallet in your pocket, and have the same climate issues as active transport.
Plus, regulators are introducing so many geofencing limits that their appeal is being limited.
However, privately owned e-bikes that make use of extensive bikeways or active transport networks could potentially see a rise in popularity – shopping baskets included.
Provided the lithium battery doesn’t burn your house down, these could be useful to have in your garage.
Autonomous, electric vehicles
This is a serious proposal, being explored by leading institutions and thinkers including my friend Prof Alan Berger from MIT, and the Toyota Mobility Foundation.
To quote from the Toyota Mobility Foundation:
“Imagine how self-driving vehicles and derived mobility services might impact every aspect of life in the future.
From how and when we move about and how we design cities, to how we enhance environmental sustainability with this technology.
As we approach this new era in urban/suburban planning and transportation, can we develop models and guidance that will help us address issues such as congestion and affordable universal access?”
The beauty of the work that people like Alan Berger are doing is that they realise real solutions involve a lot more than magic wands and glib sayings like “get people out of cars.”
They involve the redesign and retrofit of urban and suburban domains – from housing to work to physical and digital networks.
If you’re genuinely interested in exploring some advanced thinking (it’s not a big club) start with a look at https://www.alanmberger.com/next-generation-suburbs#7 and also https://toyotamobilityfoundation.org/en/research/suburban/.
As for me, I think the maths is undeniable.
Millions more people will mean millions more cars (for now) so it will get a lot worse before it gets better (if it does).
This is why you’ll continue to find me on the one form of transport that’s ready when I am and is able to sneak through traffic snarls while bringing a smile to your dial.
And if it rains?
A small price to pay.
Keep the rubber side down!
