By Brett Warren July 27, 2023

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Housing market recovery gathers momentum with steepest price gain since 2021

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Housing market recovery gathers momentum with steepest price gain since 2021

Key takeaways

Over the June quarter, combined capital house prices rose almost four times faster than the previous quarter to produce the steepest gain since late 2021, and have now recouped roughly half of the value lost in the 2022 downturn.

All capital cities saw house prices rise over the June quarter and have moved into a recovery phase, with Sydney leading the charge. The one exception is Canberra, which is holding steady in a price trough.

Combined capital unit prices increased for the first time since late 2021 and posted the most substantial quarterly gain in two years – a turnaround that follows five consecutive quarters of decline. Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide unit prices rose over the quarter, Darwin held steady, while Canberra, Perth and Hobart saw a decline.

Adelaide and Perth have reached record-high house prices, while Brisbane and Adelaide are the cities with record-high unit prices.

All capital cities saw house prices rise over the June quarter and have moved into a recovery phase, with Sydney leading the charge.

The one exception is Canberra, which is holding steady in a price trough.

According to Domain Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide unit prices rose over the quarter, Darwin held steady, while Canberra, Perth and Hobart saw a decline.

House prices

Capital City	Jun-23	Mar-23	Jun-22	QoQ	YoY
Sydney	$1,538,017	$1,460,391	$1,535,869	+5.3%	+0.1%
Melbourne	$1,027,996	$1,023,755	$1,075,148	+0.4%	-4.4%
Brisbane	$823,272	$816,021	$857,249	+0.9%	-4.0%
Adelaide	$813,842	$791,904	$773,104	+2.8%	+5.3%
Canberra	$1,034,057	$1,034,057	$1,174,373	0.0%	-11.9%
Perth	$690,468	$675,560	$654,962	+2.2%	+5.4%
Hobart	$709,275	$700,545	$762,161	+1.2%	-6.9%
Darwin	$642,212	$630,470	$647,041	+1.9%	-0.7%
Combined Capitals	$1,049,812	$1,022,261	$1,063,110	+2.7%	-1.3%
Combined Regionals	$577,720	$570,646	$566,077	+1.2%	+2.1%

Source: Domain

Unit Prices

Capital City	Jun-23	Mar-23	Jun-22	QoQ	YoY
Sydney	$773,752	$753,997	$779,309	+2.6%	-0.7%
Melbourne	$553,110	$534,275	$585,000	+3.5%	-5.5%
Brisbane	$478,370	$464,018	$453,569	+3.1%	+5.5%
Adelaide	$449,548	$424,053	$390,238	+6.0%	+15.2%
Canberra	$545,347	$550,305	$609,551	-0.9%	-10.5%
Perth	$356,517	$362,310	$374,641	-1.6%	-4.8%
Hobart	$532,676	$543,745	$535,128	-2.0%	-0.5%
Darwin	$361,298	$361,298	$386,678	0.0%	-6.6%
Combined Capitals	$608,898	$593,196	$616,948	+2.6%	-1.3%
Combined Regionals	$440,515	$446,554	$433,727	-1.4%	+1.6%

Source: Domain

Sydney leads the recovery

Dr. Nicola Powell, Domain’s Chief of Research and Economics reports that house prices have now climbed two consecutive quarters, easing the depth of annual decline, while unit prices increased for the first time in over a year.

Since reaching a trough in December 2022, house prices across the combined capitals have recouped $35,000 (or 3.4%) of the $60,000 (or -5.6%) value lost during the 2022 downturn — roughly halfway into recovery.

Sydney property continues to lead the recovery and witnessed the greatest acceleration in growth — already roughly two-thirds into recovery.

All capital cities saw house prices rise over the June quarter and have moved into a recovery phase, apart from Canberra, which is holding steady in a price trough.

Combined capital unit prices reached a turning point over the June quarter, increasing for the first time since late 2021 and posting the most substantial quarterly gain in two years – a turnaround that follows five consecutive quarters of decline.

Since reaching a trough in March 2023, combined capital unit prices have recouped $16,000 (or 2.6%) of the $34,000 (or -5.4%) value lost during the 2022-23 downturn — recovering roughly half.

The change in house prices so far this property cycle

Dr Nicola Powell, Domain’s Chief of Research and Economics commented...

“The continued mismatch between supply and demand has been a fundamental contributor to the price recovery currently being experienced in the Australian housing market.

This has been fuelled by an unseasonably weak flow of new listings and rising demand - with the total number of homes for sale 22% below the five-year average for the combined capitals.

However, the tide is gradually changing, as the flow of new listings improves, likely spurred by the persistent pricing recovery or home owners selling due to the higher debt costs.

While new listings remain lower than average, there is noted improvement from the deeper declines we have seen previously.

Some cities are seeing an improvement - in Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra and Darwin, new listings are higher than their five-year average.

As housing confidence improves, and as the mortgage cliff unravels, we could begin to see a slowdown in price growth as listings continue to rise, and those looking to buy have greater choice”

Capital cities' key takeaways

1. Sydney’s housing market recovery gathered significant momentum over the June quarter, with house prices rising four times faster than the previous quarter.

Sydney unit price recovery also gained traction over the June quarter, rising at double the pace of the previous quarter to produce the strongest quarterly gain in two years.

2. Melbourne’s housing market is rising again, with house and unit prices increasing over the June quarter.

It is the first quarterly increase in a year-and-a-half for houses.

While after declining for three consecutive quarters, unit prices increased over the June quarter.

3. Brisbane house prices continued to recover, rising for a second consecutive quarter to produce the steepest quarterly gain in a year.

Brisbane was also one of only two capital cities to see unit prices reach a record high over the June quarter.

Unit prices have outperformed house prices for five consecutive quarters, narrowing the price gap between property types to a two-year low.

4. Adelaide house prices soared to another new record high to surpass $800,000 for the first time.

House price growth accelerated over the June quarter to produce the strongest quarterly gain since early 2022.

Adelaide became Australia's best-performing capital city unit market, with the steepest quarterly surge the city has seen since 2007, reversing the previous quarter's decline.

5. Stability has returned to Canberra’s housing market as house prices flatlined over the June quarter.

This is the best quarterly outcome in a year.

Despite the stability, house prices experienced the steepest annual decline the city has ever experienced.

Unit prices declined over the June quarter.

For the first time since March 2022, Melbourne has overtaken Canberra as the second most expensive capital city in which to purchase a unit.

6. Perth house prices increased over the June quarter to an all-time high.

Unit prices declined over the June quarter, pushing annual declines the steepest in three-and-a-half years.

Perth is the only capital city with a record price gap between property types after house prices outperformed unit prices for nine consecutive quarters.

7. Hobart’s housing market is rising again, with house prices increasing over the June quarter.

It is the first quarterly increase since early 2022 — a turnaround that follows four consecutive quarters of decline.

Unit prices declined over the quarter to erase most of the previous quarter’s gain.

Despite the fluctuations, unit prices are modestly lower than a year ago.

8. Darwin’s housing market is on the rise, with house prices increasing over the June quarter to regain most of last quarter’s loss.

Despite the fluctuations, Darwin remains Australia’s most affordable city in which to purchase a house.

And while unit prices held steady over the June quarter, it was the steepest annual decline the city had seen in just over three years.

About Brett Warren Brett Warren is National Director of Metropole Properties and uses his two decades of property investment experience to advise clients how to grow, protect and pass on their wealth through strategic property advice.