By Michael Yardney April 22, 2023

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Australia’s population could soar to 50 million – and that’s good for property

Michael Yardney's Commentary
Australia’s population could soar to 50 million – and that’s good for property

Key takeaways

Australia's population is expected to increase from 25.7 million on June 30 2021, to 29.9 million by June 30, 2033.

The government's baseline case is for our population to then grow to 39.2 million by 2060-61.

However, a high migration scenario would see Australia's population almost doubling to close to 50 million by 2060.

Our median age is also projected to increase, from 38.4 years in 2020-21 to 40.1 years by 2032-33.

Australia's population is going to be smaller and older than expected due to COVID-19 restrictions halting migration.

But we're still going to be growing faster than almost every other developing country.

The government's baseline case is for our population to then grow to 39.2 million by 2060-61.

However, a high migration scenario would see Australia's population almost doubling to close to 50 million by 2060.

These latest forecasts come from the federal government's Centre for Population which suggests the nation's rate of population growth will remain steady over the next decade, rising from around 26 million now to nearly 30 million people by 2032–33.

However there is a sting in the tail for taxpayers as the closure of the international border to migrants for two years means Australia will be older and have fewer workers compared to projections if COVID-19 had not hit our shores.

Meaning fewer taxpayers to pay for a larger ageing population and all the health care and pension costs that go with this.

In my mind, the government has two options:

Tax Australian workers more (not a politically palatable option) or..
Increase migration

In the federal government’s Centre for Population report reveals:

“As the population ages, there will be a larger percentage of older Australians relative to the people of working age....

This presents long-term economic and fiscal challenges similar to those faced in most comparable countries.”

Note: The share of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 16.8 per cent in 2020-21 to 19.9 per cent in 2032–33, and 23.1 per cent in 2060-61, with corresponding decreases in the share of young Australians.

The report effectively makes the case for a high immigration scenario to reduce the median age, and to tackle the ratio of working-age people to those aged over 65.

The report's baseline migration scenario would see Australia's population increasing to 39.2 million by 2060.

However, the high migration scenario would see Australia's population almost doubling to close to 50 million by 2060.

Either way, this huge growth in our population and the fact that it is mainly going to occur in our capital cities will underpin continual house price growth.

Victoria

You'd have to be living under a rock not to realise how Victoria's 260 days of lockdown hit Melbourne harder than any other Australian city during the pandemic.

Melbourne's population fell by 1.6% in 2020–21 as overseas migration ground ceased and thousands of residents moved interstate - mainly to Queensland.

On the other hand regional Victoria enjoyed a period of population growth through the pandemic.

However, Melbourne is still on track to overtake Sydney as the nation's largest city by 2031-32 and reach 6.1 million the following year.

Overall, Victoria's population is set to climb from around 6.6 million now to 7.8 million by 2032-33.

New South Wales

The Centre for Population report suggests Sydney's population will be just over 6 million by 2032–33, making it the second-biggest Australian city, behind Melbourne at 6.1 million.

A return in overseas migration is expected to fuel much of the population growth over the next decade.

Queensland

During the pandemic Queensland's population continued to grow due to interstate migration to the Sunshine State.

Queensland's population is expected to rise from 5.3 million now to around 6.2 million by 2032–33.

Unlike other states where the majority live in capital cities, in Queensland the population is roughly split in half between Brisbane and the regions.

Tasmania

Like Queensland, Tasmania's capital city of Hobart is not home to the bulk of the state's population.

By 2033, Hobart's population is likely to near 300,000, with around 350,000 people living in other parts of the state.

Western Australia

Following the the mining booms of the 2000s and 2010s Western Australia experienced a number of years of negative interstate migration, but this trend reversed during the pandemic, with a surge in interstate migration as more Australians decided to try life on the west coast.

According to the Centre for Population over the next decade Western Australia's population will rise from around 2.8 million now to 3.2 million by 2032–33.

And Perth's population is expected to reach 2.6 million by 2032–33.

South Australia

South Australia's population is projected to increase its population from 1.82 million now to 2 million by 2032-33.

Adelaide's population is expected to rise from 1.42 million now to nearly 1.6 million by 2032–33.

The Centre for Population noted that Adelaide had an older age structure than other states.

Northern Territory

The population in the Northern Territory is expected to slowly increase from around 249,000 now to 293,000 by 2032–33.

Australian Capital Territory

The Centre for Population analysis expects population growth in the ACT's to climb from around 460,000 now to 550,000 by 2032–33.

Source of interactive charts: ABC News

About Michael Yardney Michael is the founder of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and one of Australia's 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media.