What is going to happen to overseas migration post Coronavirus?

Chart 1 tells me that net overseas migration has lifted substantially when compared to a generation ago.

Like interstate migration, net overseas migration is also a cyclical occurrence.

Table 1 tells me the New South Wales and Victoria – read Sydney and Melbourne – receive the lion’s share of net overseas migration to Australia.

Table 2 outlines the top 25 local authority areas across Australia ranked by total net overseas migration during fiscal 2019.

Most of these areas are in either Sydney or Melbourne and most occupy inner-city or middle-ring locations.

In many instances, net overseas migration is the only reason these areas are experiencing an increasing headcount.

My comments

There has been considerable debate in recent weeks if overseas migration will fall as a result of the coronavirus.

I think that in the short term – over the next 12 to 24 months – that is very likely, if for no other reasons than limitations on international travel and overseas student intakes.

But once these things become unrestrained – and they will - it is reasonable to accept that the recent high levels of overseas migration will resume.

In fact, I will go further and say that the net levels of overseas migration to Australia are very likely to rise, and maybe substantially, over the decades to come.

The median age of a recent overseas migrant to Australia is 26 years old, whilst that number for an Australian citizen is just under 40.

More telling is that 61% of overseas arrivals to Australia are currently aged between 18 and 34 years, whilst this segment holds just 27% of the overall Australian population.

In short, Australia will need their tax dollars – and most likely lower wage costs too – in order to pay for, and recover from, our current largesse.

Here's one chart and two tables to explain this.

Chart 1 tells me that population movements between states and territories was on a rapid ascent before COVID-19.

The chart also shows that interstate population movements are cyclical.

Moves are influenced by the economy, demographics and also perception.

Also, the chart shows that when things get hard, economically, interstate movements slow down as we assumingly bunker down until things monetary wise improve.

Chart 1 also shows that the bounce back is often as steep the previous decline.

Table 1. Australia: Population growth by state/territory

State/Territory	Total population	Annual population growth
State/Territory	Total population	Total population growth	Net interstate migration
New South Wales	8,089,817	109,649	-22,063
Victoria	6,596,039	134,020	12,198
Queensland	5,094,510	85,086	22,831
South Australia	1,751,963	15,436	-3,958
Western Australia	2,621,509	27,328	-6,451
Tasmania	534,457	6,159	2,008
Northern Territory	245,929	-1,129	-4,371
ACT	426,704	6,325	-194
Australia	25,365,571	382,883	0
Matusik + ABS. Fiscal 2019.

Table 1 tells me that Queensland, Victoria and Tasmania currently attract more interstate arrivals than departures, whilst in the other states and territories more people leave than arrive.

Table 2: Top 25 Australian LGAs ranked by total internal population growth

Local Authority Area, State and Rank			Annual population growth
Local Authority Area, State and Rank			Total growth	Internal migration	% total growth
1	Wyndham (C)	Vic	15,120	6,392	42%
2	Sunshine Coast (R)	Qld	8,591	6,047	70%
3	Casey (C)	Vic	13,429	5,766	43%
4	Camden (A)	NSW	7,408	5,573	75%
5	Gold Coast (C)	Qld	13,990	5,329	38%
6	Ipswich (C)	Qld	8,739	5,317	61%
7	Moreton Bay (R)	Qld	10,009	5,186	52%
8	Melton (C)	Vic	8,177	4,849	59%
9	Greater Geelong (C)	Vic	6,705	3,796	57%
10	Cardinia (S)	Vic	5,042	3,204	64%
11	Hume (C)	Vic	9,048	3,129	35%
12	The Hills Shire (A)	NSW	5,630	3,048	54%
13	Logan (C)	Qld	7,864	2,549	32%
14	Swan (C)	WA	4,020	1,808	45%
15	Armadale (C)	WA	3,190	1,616	51%
16	Whittlesea (C)	Vic	6,891	1,556	23%
17	Port Macquarie-Hastings (A)	NSW	1,463	1,418	97%
18	Brisbane (C)	Qld	23,044	1,354	6%
19	Wanneroo (C)	WA	4,628	1,326	29%
20	Maitland (C)	NSW	2,062	1,222	59%
21	Fraser Coast (R)	Qld	1,264	1,198	95%
22	Mitchell (S)	Vic	1,784	1,197	67%
23	Ballarat (C)	Vic	2,181	1,187	54%
24	Serpentine-Jarrahdale (S)	WA	1,635	1,126	69%
25	Shoalhaven (C)	NSW	1,380	1,071	78%
Matusik + ABS. Fiscal 2019.

Table 2 outlines the top 25 local authority areas across Australia ranked by total net internal population growth during fiscal 2019.

Many of these areas either hug the coastline and/or in the outer conurbations of our four largest cities.

Only a couple are inland regional towns.

My comments

Once the current restrictions are lifted it is reasonable to accept that movements between states and territories will continue.

It is also rational to assume that – and if the household has the means – the want to live in a more desirable location has risen over recent weeks.

This might be more impulse or reaction rather than a sustainable trend, but such action could add further momentum to the recent escalation shown in chart 1.

It is also fair to accept that any continuance regarding interstate migration will follow the same established settlement patterns as shown in tables 1 and 2.

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