1.9 million fewer people in Australia


id Demographers forecast that Australia’s population will have 1.9 million fewer people in 20 years’ time than it would have had if COVID-19 never reached our shores.

To give a sense of the scale of change, id Demographers are forecasting by 2041, there will be just under 2 million fewer people living here (31,500,000 people instead of 33,300,000 )

This will mean:

  • 466,000 fewer primary school-age children,
  • 322,000 fewer secondary school-age children, and…
  • a significant impact on the number of homes built (162,000 fewer homes needed in Melbourne alone)

Since is 2005, overseas migration has been the main driver of population growth in Australia, stimulated by federal government policies designed to bolster the tertiary education sector, attract a skilled workforce, and balance Australia’s aging population. Population

In the decade 2009 to 2019, overseas migration accounted for an average of 218,000 people being added to our population each year.

At the peak times, we added as many as 300,000 people through migration.

id Demographers report that in the current financial year (2020 – 2021) they anticipated Australia will experience the net overseas migration loss of 71,600 people.

This means more people will be moving to live overseas than people moving overseas to live in Australia.

They expect a further loss of 21,600 people in 2022, followed by a gradual return to around 200,000 population growth per year.

Fewer births

id suggest that one consequence of reduced immigration will be if you were both in Australia.

They say that as most overseas migrants are young adults in family formation age, we will have a decline in the number of future children born in Australia.

They also assume that some women will delay having children because of the uncertainty associated with COVID-19.

Which areas miss out?

Over the past decade, Australia’s popularion grew faster than we could build houses, but the decrease in population growth means fewer households will be formed and we will require fewer houses moving forward.

id believe in the short-term the reduction in demand will be most evident in the inner city areas and the university districts that are normally home to student populations

The following map shows the impact ID expects COVID-19 to have on the population of each Australian state and territory by 2041.

decreased population

Source: id Demographers- How close borders will impact the future demand for services.


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