This is what is going to shape the future of our cities

What is going to shape the future of our cities?

Property PredictionsWhat factors are going to make some locations and certain properties outperform the averages in the future?

Now these are important questions for home owners and particularly for property investors who will want to own the type of properties that are going to grow at wealth producing rates of return in the future.

Now I know many commentators are suggesting that we can’t have the same sort of capital growth in the next 10 years as we had in the last decade or so.

In fact, some are still suggesting it just isn’t possible for property values to keep going up much more at all.

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Now I agree that the current era of lower inflation, lower wages growth and lower interest rates, is not conducive to overall double-digit capital growth like we enjoyed a few years ago.

But rather than trying to predict exactly what future capital growth rates are going to be, what I’m going to suggest is to that as an investor you should be looking for a investment grade properties that are going to outperform the averages with regards to capital growth.

Just to give you some background…

There’s no doubt that the significant property price growth that we’ve enjoyed over the last couple of decades, particularly in our big capital cities, have come about because of two major factors.

1. Lower Interest Rates

Firstly, interest rates dropped considerably over the last decade. Ten years ago, at the time of the Global Financial Crisis the average mortgage interest rate was around 10%.

Interest Rates Are Low

I remember the good old days when I was thrilled if my home mortgage was less than 10%.

What this means is that even if people’s income didn’t increase – the fact that interest rates dropped significantly increased their ability to service their loans allowing them to afford more expensive properties.

2. More two income households

Over the last couple of decades, we have had more two income households.

This again increased household affordability.

Especially since at the time there was more competition amongst banks keen to lend home buyers and investors money.

So, what’s ahead for the future?

Let’s now look at some trends that will shape the future of our property markets.

1. Lower Interest Rates

Income

I see a long period of low interest rates. In fact, this is likely to be the case for up to a decade.

Of course, if interest rates were to rise I’d be thrilled.

That’s because the RBA will only increase interest rates if our economy flourishes, productivity increases, inflation rises and the value of our properties boom, so they want to slow things down by raising the cost of money

2. Lower Wages Growth

Wages growth is likely to remain low in the coming years, despite strong job creation and despite our world class low unemployment levels.

This is just something that’s been happening around the world where in general, despite high employment and jobs growth wages is minimal.

Wage gap concept for feminism

What this means is the average Australia is not going to be taking more money home in their pay packet and despite us being told that inflation is low, most people are not getting as much bang for their buck.

It seems that after paying higher petrol prices, higher energy prices and the increased cost of living, they just don’t have as much money left over.

Major changes to the workplace ahead

I also see some major workplace changes ahead with fewer higher paying jobs and more lower paying jobs.

That’s because many currently existing jobs will often be done better by fewer people in the future.

Automation and artificial intelligence will take the place of many workers while offshoring of manufacturing will mean the jobs of many others will be made redundant.

Automation

A recent US study showed that 47% of existing jobs could be obsolete by 2030 and the demand for some 40% of the other remaining jobs are likely be halved over the next decade.

Most of these job losses are expected in the higher and especially middle-income wage brackets.

Similarly, in Australia research by StartupAUS suggests that technology “will kill 40% of Aussie jobs by 2030.”

Jobs in the hospitality and tourism, transport, retail and administration sectors in Australia are most at risk from technology and automation over the next 10 to 15 years, potentially putting the jobs of nearly five million workers on the chopping block.

A1

What will happen to the middle class?

This means we’re going to get a further hollowing out of the middle class which is well explained in the following table from Michael Matusik which outlines Australian jobs by major household income segments.

The past stats are facts, whilst the forecasts are those of Matusik based on his research of emerging trends.

Distribution of Australian jobs by income segment

Income segmentLast 25 yearsTodayNext 25 years
High30%25%20%
Middle50%40%30%
Low20%35%50%
Total100%100%100%

Matusik believes that looking forward, the jobs that will grow in demand will be those than cannot be done better and/or more cost efficiently by an algorithm.

What does this mean for property?

So where are property values going to increase at above average rates of capital growth in the future.

Growth Of WageClearly that’s going to be in locations where people’s wages are growing faster than the average, meaning their disposable income should be higher than average.

Now every 4 years the Census dissects every municipality by many statistics and one of them is income growth.

For years our research team at Metropole have been following and logging wages growth in the many municipalities around Australia and comparing them to the average for their state.

If the trends I mentioned above occur, it’s very likely that future income growth will be lower in the outer suburbs of our capital cities meaning there will be limited opportunity for people to pay more for their homes there.

And it will be much the same in many parts of regional Australia

Now I’m not talking about investors… I’m talking about the homeowners, who in general drive our property markets and who make up the bulk of purchasers in our outer suburbs and regional Australia.

Wage Growth

Fewer homeowners being able to afford to pay more means properties in those areas are unlikely to significantly increase in value.

On the other hand, in those municipalities where wages growth is considerably higher than average, the local residents will have more disposable income than average.

This means they will have the ability to buy bigger fancier cars, larger televisions and also afford bigger more expensive homes.

Plus, they’ll have the cash to renovate their houses improve increase the value of their properties.

Now this is not a social argument

If what I’m suggesting will actually transpire (and I’m sure it will) it could lead to many social problems. But that’s out of the realm of our discussion today.

The big takeaway is…

Jobs 300x260With many jobs disappearing in the future and generally lower wages growth there will be minimal impetus for property value growth in many suburbs of Australia.

And lowering interest rates won’t help as much this time around – the flow through effect of the low interest rates has all but gone.

Sure, lending more freely by easing serviceability criteria will help, but remember if people’s wages won’t increase much, they just won’t be able to service loans.

So as always…

Demographics will drive our property markets

Those areas where people will have job security, higher wages growth and multiple streams of income will be locations where people will be able to afford and also be prepared to pay more for their properties.

DemographicThese will be the established you inner and middle ring suburbs of our capital cities, and in particular locations close to amenities, public transport and the lifestyle choices these more affluent Australians want to (and can afford to) enjoy

Then of course as an investor you’ll need to select the right properties in those locations — investment grade properties that will appeal to owner occupiers who will push up the value of similar properties.

This is the type of property that will outperform in the future.

So what should you do about this?

If you’re looking for independent advice in to take advantage of the eminent upturn in our property markets, no one can help you quite like the independent property investment strategists at Metropole.

Remember the multi award winning team of property investment strategists at Metropole have no properties to sell, so their advice is unbiased. 

Whether you are a beginner or a seasoned property investor, we would love to help you formulate an investment strategy or do a review of your existing portfolio, and help you take your property investment to the next level.

Please click here to organise a time for a chat. Or call us on 1300 20 30 30

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Michael Yardney

About

Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and his opinions are regularly featured in the media. Visit Metropole.com.au


'This is what is going to shape the future of our cities' have 4 comments

    Avatar

    June 21, 2019 Ravindra Amane

    Hi Michael,

    I read many of your articles – you are always consistent in your message.

    In your view, what constitutes as an outer vs middle vs inner. For Sydney, am I right in saying Doonside, Wentworthville, and Redfern are outer, middle, and inners suburbs respectively? Our would you call Doonside a middle ring suburb?

    Thanks in advice, Michael.

    Ravi

    PS: I am relatively new to AU.

    Reply

      Michael Yardney

      June 21, 2019 Michael Yardney

      Ravindra – I never mention specific suburbs on this site because people then tend to think that that’s where they should invest and in every suburbs there are locations I would avoid making that suburb a poor selection.
      It’s not a straight circle either but inner is around 5km from the CBD and middle (in Sydney) extends to 20km or more from the CBD

      Reply

    Avatar

    June 20, 2019 Rashmi Thakrar

    I do not agree with article conclusion that the outer suburbs and regional area will not perform as well as inner suburbs.

    1 it assumes all technology companies due to automation will be based in the CBD area. In fact more jobs will be automated in the CDB area than outer suburbs.

    2 More technology centres I’ll relocate for better and cheaper premises moving away from the inner suburbs.

    3 Most manufacturing and warehouse facilities are located in the outer suburbs

    So relocating technology hub out of inner suburbs will create jobs in the the outer and not the inner suburbs. So demand for the commercial and the domestic properties will be higher.

    Reply

      Michael Yardney

      June 20, 2019 Michael Yardney

      Thanks for giving us your thoughts Rashmi
      Unfortunately I disagree with you, based on extensive research both here and overseas

      Reply


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