Selling conditions weaken as inventories rise and buyer activity fades

As dwelling values and transactions decline and stock for sale mounts properties are taking longer to sell across most regions of the country.

The median days on market figure is calculated by measuring how long it takes from when a property is initially listed for sale until when it goes under contract, excluding properties sold by auction. A lower days on market means a quicker rate of sale and vice versa.

Over the three months to October 2018, properties nationally had a median time on market of 53 days.

As the first chart shows there has been a clear increase in days on market of late, up from 42 days a year ago and a recent low of 38 days in December 2017. 

Across the combined capital cities, the median days on market sat at 46 days over the three months to October 2018 compared to 61 days across the combined regional markets.

Across each of these broad regions the days on market figure was higher than during the previous year when it was recorded at 35 days and 55 days respectively.

The capital city days on market figure is now the highest it’s been since March 2016 and across the combined capital cities it is the highest since October 2016.

Although the median days on market in Sydney and regional NSW has edged slightly lower over recent months, across both regions, days on market is higher than a year ago.

In Sydney, the median days on market was 31 days a year ago and has increased to 50 days currently which is much higher than the recent low of 24 days in April 2017.

Across regional NSW, days on market currently sits at 64 days compared to 52 days a year ago and a recent low of 48 days in May 2017.

In Melbourne, the median time on market is currently recorded at 38 days and in regional Vic it is recorded at 41 days. 

In Melbourne, the days on market is trending higher, it is much higher than the 23 days a year ago and the highest it has been since March 2016.

In regional Vic the days on market figure has been trending lower and is down from 49 days a year ago, highlighting the strengthening of housing market conditions in regional Vic as the Melbourne housing market slows.

Throughout Queensland, properties are taking longer to sell than they were a year ago. In Brisbane, the median days on market is currently recorded at 53 days which is the longest it has taken since February 2013 and has increased from 37 days a year ago.

In regional Qld it is typically taking 69 days to sell a home, up from 55 days a year ago with the 69 days the longest it has taken to sell since February 2016.

As at October 2018, the median time on market for Adelaide was recorded at 42 days and in regional SA it was recorded at 93 days.

As the chart shows, the days on market figure for Adelaide is trending lower and is down from 55 days a year ago.

In regional SA, days on market has begun to trend higher over recent months however, it is lower than the 102 days it was typically taking a year ago.

Perth properties were typically taking 63 days to sell over the three months to October 2018.

The days on market figure for the city is trending higher and is up from 56 days over the same period in 2017.

In regional WA, the days on market figure has been trending higher over recent months however, it is unchanged from a year ago with the median currently recorded at 82 days.

Properties that transact in Hobart are continuing to sell quickly however, there has been a fairly steep rise in days on market over recent months.

Properties in Hobart took 25 days to sell over the past three months, up from just 10 days a year ago and a recent low of 9 days during a number of months over the past year.

Properties are taking much longer to sell in regional Tas at 45 days however, the days on market figure has fallen from 53 days a year ago.

With the ongoing weak housing market conditions properties take a long time to sell across NT.

The small volume of sales also creates volatility in the days on market figure.

In Darwin, it currently takes 90 days to sell a property compared to 100 days a year ago.

In regional NT, it was taking 66 days a year ago which was a shorter days on market than the 74 days currently.

Over the three months to October 2018, the median days on market for a Canberra property was 43 days.

The days on market for the city was higher than the 37 days it took at the same time last year.

Across the nation, the data shows that the trend is towards properties typically taking longer to sell. 

This is reflective of the weaker housing market conditions whereby dwelling values are falling with growth slowing in most regions, transaction volumes are lower and the overall stock available for sale continues to climb which provides buyers with more choice and less urgency.

With credit conditions much tighter than they have been over recent years accessing finance is tougher which is a major contributor to weaker overall conditions.

As a result of these trends, it is expected that the median days on market figure will continue to trend higher over the coming months as vendors of ’stale’ inventory eventually adjust their price expectations lower or withdraw their property from the market.

About Cameron Kusher Cameron Kusher is Corelogic RP Data’s senior research analyst. Cameron has a thorough understanding of the fundamentals such as demographics, trends & economics. Visit www.corelogic.com.au