Monthly inflation…still heading the right way (fuel aside)

As expected by markets, the monthly inflation indicator came in at 5.2 per cent for the year to August.

This was an increase from the very sharp drop to 4.9 per cent last month but below the 5.4 per cent recorded in June.

The increase was mainly driven by rising fuel prices, driven more so by global forces, and rents, which are being pushed higher by record immigration and tight lending conditions.

Excluding volatile items - fuel, fruit and veg, and holiday travel - the indicator rose 5.5 per cent in August, down from 5.9 per cent in July.

Since this was in line with market expectations, the Aussie dollar and bond markets were largely unchanged.

Things are gradually moving in the right direction, but still, a drop in fuel prices would be most welcome!

Job vacancies plunge to earth

Job vacancies dropped another 9 per cent over the 3 months to August, to be 18 per cent below their highs at 390,000.

Job vacancies were up over the quarter in Queensland, but are now dropping away sharply in New South Wales and Victoria.

The number of unemployed persons per job vacancy bottomed out at 1 in August 2022, but has now increased to 1.4...so things are normalising quite quickly now.

In fact as the labour force expands quickly the unemployment rate is already heading to 4½ per cent, and possibly higher in due course.

Retail turnover also continued in a very weak trend, ensuring that the Reserve Bank will keep interest rates on hold to allow the tightening still in the system to work its way through for a bit longer.

Monthly inflation…still heading the right way (fuel aside)

Job vacancies plunge to earth

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