We know that Australia's immigration virtually came to a halt over Covid, but that's changing now.
Our recovery in net migration recovery continued in September.
In fact, September's overseas arrivals and departures data showed a continued normalisation of migration.
Permanent and long-term arrivals were similar to their pre-pandemic levels, while permanent and long-term departures remain a little higher than before the pandemic, but appear to be trending lower after an initial period of catch-up.
Preliminary data for October shows an ongoing, but gradual recovery in total cross boarder movements with both arrivals and departures remaining well.
Total movements were 39% below pre-pandemic October 2019 levels.
Net permanent and long-term arrivals show continued normalisation
Net permanent and long-term arrivals show continued normalisation in net migration even as outbound departures remain a little above the pre-pandemic level.
Mr Taylor Nugent, Markets Economist at NAB said:
"Net permanent and long-term arrivals, which gives a more timely signal of net migration, was +17k in September.
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These data continue to point to ongoing recovery in migration, consistent with official forecasts in the budget for a more rapid recovery in population growth.
The October Budget sees population growth of 1.4% over the year to mid-2023.
Should population growth return to 1.4% by June 2023, this would equate to almost 400k people, similar to what was seen prior to the pandemic.
Note during the pandemic population growth slowed to just 127k in 2021 and 112k in 2020."
Arrivals and departures data are consistent with ongoing pick up in net migration
The recovery in international student inflows continues, but arrivals remained below pre-pandemic levels in September.
Mr Nugent commented:
"There were 36k student arrivals this month, 21.5% lower than September 2019.
Visa approvals data and anecdotes from student accommodation providers points to ongoing recovery in student inflows ahead of the 2023 academic year with one provider expecting to have occupancy near capacity in in QLD, while Sydney and Adelaide are not far behind."
