Melbourne Apartments: Where You Can Still Buy at 2015 Prices

If you’ve been watching Melbourne’s property market closely, you’ll know it’s been a two-speed market in recent years.

While established houses in gentrified inner- and middle-ring suburbs have pulled ahead, many apartments have been stuck in reverse gear.

But something’s shifting.

However, new PropTrack data reveals there are still 13 Melbourne suburbs where apartment prices remain below 2015 levels.

That’s right, some units are effectively selling at decade-old prices.

And yet, ironically, this might not be the “bargain” it appears to be at first glance.

Let’s unpack what’s happening.

And why the Allan government’s plan to inject thousands of new apartments into 50 so-called “activity centres” could be a ticking time bomb for capital growth.

Where you can still buy at 2015 prices

The numbers don’t lie.

In Werribee South, the median unit price today is $402,500—over $100,000 below its 2015 median.

Essendon North, Flemington, Abbotsford, and Prahran are all showing similar declines of 6–20% over the past decade.

That’s a long time for capital growth to stagnate or go backward.

But here’s what’s interesting: many of these areas had a sharp influx of new developments—particularly investor-grade apartments—in the mid-2010s.

Think of it as an oversupply hangover that’s lingered longer than anyone expected.

Yet recently, a few of these suburbs have started to show signs of life.

Docklands, once the poster child for underperformance, has finally clawed its way back into positive territory.

Strathmore and Maribyrnong are also showing improvement.

It seems the worst may be behind us.

But before investors rush in thinking this is the bottom, there’s a major caveat…

The “Activity Centres” Plan: good intentions, poor execution?

The Victorian Government’s plan to concentrate on new apartment development around 50 key “activity centres” is meant to address the housing supply.

But the danger here is that we’re not just repeating the mistakes of the past—we could be amplifying them.

These activity centres are likely to become magnets for high-rise, high-density builds, particularly those aimed at affordability rather than liveability.

And that’s where red flags start waving.

Commentators rightly point out that zoning issues and bank lending criteria could create financing headaches for first-time homebuyers and investors alike.

Properties zoned for mixed-use or dense development are often frowned upon by banks—resulting in lower valuations, tougher lending terms, or outright rejections.

Add in the risk of oversupply, particularly in areas without strong owner-occupier demand or lifestyle appeal, and you’re left with an asset class that may once again underperform.

Why some apartments lose value over time

There’s a fundamental problem with many of the new units built in the last 10–15 years: they’re constructed to a price point, not a quality standard.

The depreciation on these buildings is real and rapid, particularly for investor-grade stock with low land-to-asset ratios.

Take note that when the building ages faster than the land appreciates, the overall value stagnates (or declines).

This is why I always warn investors: not all properties make good investments.

Especially apartments in large complexes, with high body corporate fees, poor natural light, minimal scarcity, and no real point of difference.

Remember, you’re not just buying an address—you’re buying a piece of land with future potential.

With many of these high-density builds, the land component is minimal.

And that’s a growth killer.

So, should you buy units in today’s market?

That depends entirely on your strategy.

If you’re a first homebuyer looking for an affordable entry point, there may still be value in established units in blue-chip suburbs with strong fundamentals.

But steer clear of the newer towers unless you’re getting exceptional value and plan to live there long term.

If you’re an investor, think twice before chasing a “cheap” apartment just because it’s cheaper than it was in 2015.

Ask why it’s still cheap.

If the answer is oversupply or high body corp fees, keep walking.

That said, the outlook for quality apartments is improving.

As  PropTrack economist Anne Flaherty points out, it’s becoming increasingly expensive to build new apartments, thanks to soaring construction costs, planning delays, and tighter developer margins.

That’s likely to constrain future supply, particularly at the affordable end of the market.

We’re already seeing a shift toward higher-end units.

Over 50% of the apartments currently listed on realestate.com.au are priced above $1 million.

That tells you a lot about where developers are heading, and it also creates a vacuum at the more affordable level.

That vacuum could support price growth in well-located, established apartments, provided they offer the right mix of scarcity, land value, and owner-occupier appeal.

The bottom line

There’s no denying that some Melbourne apartments are still selling at “2015 prices.”

But there’s usually a reason they’ve underperformed.

With more high-density development slated for these new activity centres, we may see history repeat itself, at least in the short-to-medium term.

My advice?

Don’t be tempted by price alone.

Focus on quality over quantity.

And if you’re investing, think long-term—look for scarcity, strong local demand, and land value.

About Joseph Ballota Joseph is a Property Coach who put hundreds of people on the road towards wiping away their mortgage in under 5 years through expert Property Investment Plans.