With the spring listing season only one month away, there is a strong chance property listing numbers will rebound sharply as pent-up vendor demand is unleashed.
The big question is whether buyer demand will rise to meet any surge in listing numbers.
Over the 28 days to 28 July 2019, CoreLogic was tracking 27,848 unique newly listed properties advertised for sale and 207,883 total properties listed for sale.
New listings are properties not previously advertised for sale over the past six months and total listings is the sum of new and ongoing listings.
As the first two national charts show, newly advertised stock for sale is significantly lower relative to recent years and -22.0% lower than a year ago.
Meanwhile, total stock advertised for sale is also at the lowest level in many years and -3.5% lower than a year ago.
The low number of new listings being added to the market is partly seasonal (listings tend to trend lower through winter), but is also reflective of weak vendor sentiment.
The recent improvement in housing market conditions should help to support a rise in vendor confidence as we approach the seasonal upswing in listing numbers through spring and early summer.
In terms of newly advertised properties for sale across the combined capital cities, the decline compared to last year is greater than it is nationally, down -24.7% on a year ago and significantly lower than recent years.
While the total number of properties advertised for sale has fallen -5.1% from a year ago listings remain higher compared with the low stock levels recorded during the recent market growth phase.
Total stock levels are lower than a year ago and lower than the same month in 2012 and 2013 but they are higher than each of the years from 2014 to 2017.
In Sydney, the number of newly advertised properties for sale hasn’t been as low as it is currently any time since CoreLogic began tracking listings in 2007.
As the market starts to stabilise, vendor confidence looks to be turning.
The number of new listings has started to rise slightly however, fresh listing additions are tracking -32.5% lower than a year ago.
The total number of properties advertised for sale is trending lower quite sharply, down-14.7% compared with the same time last year.
Total stock for sale is at similar levels recorded in 2016 and 2017 however, total listings remain much higher than each year from 2013 to 2016 when strong buyer demand was outweighing advertised supply and placing upwards pressure on prices.
Similar to Sydney, the number of newly advertised properties for sale in Melbourne is the lowest on record for this time of year.
Over recent weeks there has been a slight increase in new stock for sale signalling an improvement in vendor sentiment, however, fresh listings are currently -29.3% lower than a year ago.
The total number of properties listed for sale is trending lower, down -2.6% on a year ago.
Although total listings are lower than a number of recent years, advertised stock levels remain higher than each year between 2015 and 2017 when housing prices were rising rapidly.
The number of newly advertised properties for sale in Brisbane is lower than any of the past 12 years and -19.8% lower than a year ago.
We are yet to see any sign that new listings numbers rising across Brisbane, suggesting vendors remain reluctant to test the market.
While new listings continue to trend lower, total listings are unchanged over the past few years, implying a reasonably balanced fit between buyer demand and advertised stock.
As the chart shows total listings have been trending lower over recent months after being much higher than a year ago.
Adelaide Property Listings
In Adelaide, the number of newly advertised properties for sale is -6.7% lower relative to the previous year and currently at the lowest level for this time of the year since CoreLogic listing records commence in 2007.
The total number of properties advertised for sale has been trending lower, in line with the normal seasonal trend, however total stock levels remain are 3.8% higher than a year ago.
Perth Property Listings
The number of newly advertised properties for sale in Perth is currently tracking at the lowest level for this time of the year since at least 2007.
Relative to one year ago, new listing numbers are down -17.5%.
In a positive sign for the market, total properties advertised for sale are trending lower, down – 7.6% compared with a year ago and now lower than they have been at this time of year each year from 2015 onwards.
The consistent reduction in advertised supply should help prices to find a floor, as vendors see reduced competition and buyers have less choice.
Although total stock for sale is down on recent years it remains much higher than between 2012 and 2014 when values were rising.
Hobart property listings
There are few newly advertised properties for sale in Hobart, in fact fresh stock is trending lower, for this time of year, since 2016.
The number of newly advertised properties for sale is currently -14.3% lower than over the previous year.
While new property advertisements are lower, total advertisements are currently 15.5% higher than a year ago and have been tracking higher relative to the prior year throughout 2019.
Although this indicates buyers have more choice and less urgency, total stock levels remain much lower than any year prior to 2018.
With consistently falling home values and weak buyer demand, vendor confidence remains low across Darwin.
Newly advertised listings are currently lower relative to this time any year since at least 2007. Compared to a year ago, new properties listed for sale are -23.4% lower.
The total number of properties advertised for sale in Darwin is -1.4% lower than the previous year.
Darwin dwelling values have been falling since 2014 and although the volume of stock for sale is moderating, advertised supply levels remain much higher than when values were rising prior to early 2014.
Canberra property listings
In Canberra, the number of newly advertised properties for sale is currently -16.7% lower than a year ago.
Unlike most other capital cities, although new stock for sale is lower than last year, fresh listings were slightly below the current levels in 2014 and 2016.
While newly advertised stock for sale is lower over the year, total stock is currently elevated, up 15.2% on last year, reflecting a build-up of unsold listings.
In fact, total stock advertised for sale is currently higher than every year since 2014, which increases the amount of choice for buyers and reduces urgency in the market.
While across most capital cities the volume of newly advertised stock for sale is very low, throughout August we are likely to see an increase in advertised stock levels as the spring season approaches.
Total stock for sale has also been generally reducing however, it is not at historical low levels like new stock is.
With the recent changes to lending and consecutive official interest rate cuts, the market seems to be seeing some more demand for housing.
While demand for housing has increased, it remains much more difficult to get a mortgage than it has in the past despite the low mortgage rates.
The big question from here is if there is a lift in newly advertised stock for sale will there be enough demand to absorb the increase in supply?
We will certainly find this out over the next few months.
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