Is the RBA’s recent rate hike necessary or a recipe for disaster?

Well, the RBA really does need a broom through the joint.

After a 0.25% lift last Tuesday – making it 11 hikes in just 12 months – on some pretence that doing so will somehow reduce inflation.

Inflation isn’t caused by the consumer but mainly by a range of ill-conceived government policies and actions.

The May Federal Budget will add further fuel to the fire.

If consumer largesse was the main culprit, then why not lift the rate of GST and apply the GST on all transactions, including established real estate?

Australia's employment situation

When you survey Australia’s employment situation correctly – the number of unemployed people across Australia has lifted by 326,000 or 27% since the first interest rate hike this time last year.

The number of under-employed folks is up 178,000 or 15% since May last year.

Overall, some 500,000 Aussies are worst off – job-wise – since the RBA decided that hypocrite was too big a word for them.

Remember no rate rises until 2024!

Before Tuesday's surprise decision, some 10% of Australians were unemployed and another 9% worked but would like more hours.

More, now, will join the jobless queue and work fewer hours in the months ahead.

Looking ahead, the financial markets are betting that official interest rates will fall

Chart 1 shows the yield curve.

It is the difference between the price of long money versus short-term returns.

And it is a great bellwether when it comes to the future direction of official interest rates.

It typically leads by between three and six months.

So, by the end of calendar 2023, we are likely to see the cash rate start to fall.

And just like the overzealous hikes of late, the decline could also be steep.

It will probably need to be, or recession here we come.

And between now and then, confidence – see the chart below – will take a further hit, as will the share market and private business investment.

About Michael Matusik Michael is director of independent property advisory Matusik Property Insights. He is independent, perceptive and to the point; has helped over 550 new residential developments come to fruition and writes his insightful Matusik Missive