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Buyer demand moves off the floor in mining regions

The flow-on effect of a commodity price slump a few years back saw property prices crash in most of Australia’s mining towns, leaving investors high and dry as prices and rents slumped by as much as 60% in certain markets. map location area suburb geography place land

In the CoreLogic Property Pulse this week, research takes a look at how, down the track, some of these major mining regions are faring.

According to research, there’s some good news on the horizon with many of mining towns seeing sales volumes lift in some regions and where there are signs that the rate of decline in house prices are starting to slow.

Could this mean that the worst of the price falls in these areas are now in the past? 
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History shows that mining booms don’t last forever and it would be difficult to find anyone that could suggest the house prices in many of these towns were sustainable during the boom.

At the time, prices were being driven higher by a temporary influx of residents on high incomes and therefore, creating greater housing demand at a time in which supply which was largely irresponsive which drove prices to record high levels.

As the demand subsided supply was beginning to increase which led to substantial falls in both prices and sales.

Below we highlight some of the key statistics for house prices in the selected mining and resource related regions of Australia.

Gladstone – 578 sales over the past year at a median price of $323,875.

Sales volumes are 68% lower than their July 2007 peak and median prices are 32% lower than their September 2012 peak.

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Mackay – 1,216 sales over the past year at a median price of $335,000.

Sales volumes are 63% lower than their April 2004 peak and median prices are 23% lower than their June 2013 peak.

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Isaac – 198 sales over the past year at a median price of $140,000.

Sales volumes are 70% lower than their March 2012 peak and median prices are 77% lower than their November 2012 peak.

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Port Hedland – 204 sales over the past year at a median price of $300,000.

Sales volumes are 49% lower than their July 2006 peak and median prices are 67% lower than their June 2013 peak.

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Karratha – 289 sales over the past year at a median price of $285,000.

Sales volumes are 44% lower than their March 2005 peak and median prices are 65% lower than their October 2010 peak.

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Roxby Downs – 31 sales over the past year at a median price of $225,000.

Sales volumes are 83% lower than their December 2003 peak and median prices are 55% lower than their October 2013 peak.

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While each of these markets has recorded a significant fall in sales and selling prices over recent years, more recently each market has started to see sales rise.

While this result is unlikely to represent demand substantial enough to drive prices higher, it may be enough to slow or stop the declines in prices in the short to longer term. property data

It’s also important to remember that it’s not as if there is no demand for housing in these towns, it’s just substantially lower than it was during the mining boom.

Anyone looking to purchase now is securing a property at a substantial discount from previous highs however, these towns also continue to achieve some of the best rental returns based on current pricing and rents.

There’s very little prospects for capital growth over the coming years, investors looking for a passive income may be becoming more attracted to these markets which could explain the recent uptick in sales.



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About

Cameron Kusher is Corelogic RP Data’s senior research analyst. Cameron has a thorough understanding of the fundamentals such as demographics, trends & economics. Visit www.corelogic.com.au


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