Key takeaways
The population is rapidly approaching 30 million, with strong net overseas migration being the primary driver. In 2024, over 400,000 migrants have arrived, making up nearly two-thirds of the population increase. This growth is concentrated in major cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane.
Migration, particularly through skilled programs, is critical to addressing labour shortages, especially in healthcare, construction, and technology sectors. Migration also helps offset the economic strain of an aging population by contributing to tax revenue and supporting sectors with workforce shortages.
Australia's birth rate is declining, with births barely outpacing deaths. A declining fertility rate presents challenges for maintaining a stable working-age population, increasing reliance on migration to sustain economic growth.
Population growth boosts demand for housing, services, and infrastructure but puts significant pressure on already-stressed urban areas, leading to rising property prices and rental rates. Governments need to improve urban planning and infrastructure to accommodate this growth.
Regional areas have seen increased growth due to factors like remote work and the high cost of living in cities. However, there are concerns about whether these regions have the infrastructure to support sustained growth.
The key to managing population growth lies in smart urban planning, sustainable migration policies, and regional development. Investments in infrastructure and inclusivity efforts are crucial to ensuring that population growth benefits the entire nation without compromising future prosperity.
Australia’s population growth has long been a defining factor in shaping the nation's economic, social, and cultural landscapes.
Believe it or not, our population is now almost 27.5 million, and we’re fast heading to 30 million people with…
- One birth every 1 minute and 48 seconds.
- One death every 2 minutes and 48 seconds.
- One person arrives to live in Australia every 0 minutes and 44 seconds.
- One Australian resident leaves to live overseas every 2 minutes and 16 seconds.
- An overall total population increase of one person every 0 minutes and 54 seconds.
While this growth is often seen as a sign of prosperity, I want to delve into the key aspects of Australia’s current population trends, the drivers behind these changes, and their potential long-term impacts, focusing on both opportunities and challenges.
A population on the rise
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the country experienced its highest population growth rate in over a decade, fuelled by a resurgence in net overseas migration.
In 2024 alone, more than 400,000 migrants have arrived in Australia, contributing to nearly two-thirds of the country’s overall population growth.
This growth is largely concentrated in the major capital cities, with Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane seeing the highest inflows of new residents.
Melbourne, in particular, has been the biggest beneficiary, edging closer to becoming Australia’s largest city.
At the same time, regional areas are experiencing a slower but noticeable population increase, driven in part by internal migration as Australians seek more affordable living options outside the bustling metropolitan areas.
Migration: the primary growth engine
Migration has always played a critical role in Australia’s demographic story.
In 2024, this is even more pronounced, as skilled migration programs are designed to fill labour shortages across sectors like healthcare, construction, and technology.
As Australia faces an aging population, the influx of younger, working-age migrants helps to stabilize the economy by contributing to tax revenue, boosting demand for housing, and supporting sectors that require a large labour force.
Skilled migration programs aim to address the chronic labour shortages that have plagued many industries in Australia.
From construction workers to engineers and IT specialists, the demand for skills continues to grow.
Australia’s migration policy has been relatively welcoming, prioritizing migrants who can make an immediate economic impact.
This isn’t just an economic move but also a demographic necessity, with a large portion of Australia's population nearing retirement age.
Without migration, the balance between working-age individuals and dependents would tip unfavourably, potentially straining the economy.
However, it's important to note that while migrants contribute to population growth and economic development, they also put pressure on infrastructure and housing.
This has led to increased concerns about housing affordability, particularly in already stressed urban areas.
Natural population growth: a declining factor
While migration is ramping up, Australia’s natural population growth—births minus deaths—has been on a steady decline.
In 2024, for the first time in history, births barely outpaced deaths.
There were 286,998 births registered in Australia in 2023, resulting in a total fertility rate of 1.50 babies per woman, according to the latest data released from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
This mirrors trends seen in other developed nations, where lifestyle changes, economic pressures, and shifting cultural attitudes toward family life have resulted in fewer children per household.
This reduction in natural growth creates an interesting challenge for policymakers.
With fewer young Australians entering the workforce in the future, the reliance on migration to maintain population stability becomes more pronounced.
The aging population will increasingly depend on a shrinking base of working-age Australians, which could strain public services like healthcare and pensions.
This demographic shift may also alter societal dynamics.
Fewer young people in the population can lead to a reduction in innovation and productivity growth, as younger generations tend to drive new ideas and technological advancements.
Policymakers need to find ways to balance the effects of an aging population with strategies to encourage both higher fertility rates and continued migration.
By the way… leading demographer Simon Kuestenmacher and I discuss these types of demographic trends in our weekly podcast Demographics Decoded.
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The economic impact of population growth
Population growth is often framed in purely economic terms, and for good reason.
A growing population boosts demand for goods and services, supporting local businesses, increasing tax revenues, and stimulating industries like real estate, retail, and construction.
- Also read:Everything you need to know about the state of Australia’s property markets in 20 charts – November 2024
- Also read:This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State November 19th 2024
- Also read:Melbourne property market forecast for 2025
- Also read:Sydney property market forecast for 2025
- Also read:Brisbane’s property market forecast for 2025
In cities like Sydney and Melbourne, where housing demand is already high, this growth has driven property prices and rents upward.
But there are downsides too.
The influx of new residents puts immense pressure on infrastructure.
Roads, public transport systems, and schools are all under strain, particularly in fast-growing areas.
Housing shortages, in particular, have become a significant issue, exacerbating the already tight rental markets in major cities.
Clearly, Australia’s property markets have struggled to keep up with this demand, resulting in higher costs for homebuyers and renters alike.
For property investors, this population growth presents both an opportunity with rising demand for housing leading to capital growth and rental growth for those holding property in high-demand areas.
But there is no doubt that governments must invest in better urban planning and infrastructure to accommodate our growing population.
Transport links need expansion, affordable housing options need to be considered, and new suburbs must be designed with long-term sustainability in mind.
This will ensure that Australia’s population growth contributes to, rather than detracts from, our nation’s prosperity.
Regional Australia: the next frontier
While Australia’s population boom is concentrated in the capitals, regional areas have seen a noticeable uptick in growth, especially in the wake of the pandemic.
With the advent of remote work and the rising cost of living in major cities, some Aussies are moving to regional towns within an hour or two’s drive from the big smoke but where housing is more affordable, and the quality of life is appealing.
The question is whether these areas are equipped to handle sustained population growth.
Many regional towns have limited infrastructure, from healthcare services to educational facilities, and may struggle to meet the needs of a rapidly expanding population.
On the flip side, regional growth could stimulate local economies, create new jobs, and lead to more equitable population distribution across the country.
The social impact: diversity and identity
I know there have been many complaints about our fast-growing population, but in my mind, Australia's population growth has been not only numerical but also cultural.
Migration has brought with it a richness of diversity that has reshaped the national identity.
Today, more than half of Australians were either born overseas or have at least one parent who was.
This multicultural makeup has influenced everything from food and fashion to political perspectives and social norms.
However, with diversity comes the need for inclusivity.
As Australia becomes more diverse, ensuring social cohesion becomes a priority.
Policy and community efforts to embrace multiculturalism, support migrant integration, and address inequalities will be critical in shaping the future social fabric of the nation.
At the same time, the growing population brings challenges in ensuring equitable access to services.
Language barriers, cultural differences, and economic disparities can create divisions if not managed thoughtfully.
Looking forward: managing growth responsibly
As I see it, Australia’s population growth is both an opportunity and a challenge.
It has the potential to drive economic prosperity, enrich the cultural landscape, and shape a more diverse and dynamic future.
However, it also brings challenges that need to be addressed.
The key to managing this growth lies in forward-thinking policies, investment in infrastructure, and a commitment to creating a society that balances opportunity with equity.
Whether through smart urban planning, sustainable migration policies, or a focus on regional development, Australia has the potential to harness its population growth for the benefit of all.
As we look ahead, the question is not whether Australia will grow, but how we can grow responsibly, ensuring that future generations enjoy the same quality of life and opportunities that have made this country so attractive to millions.
