Australians are split on whether 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017

By:

How do you feel about 2018?

Will it be better or worse than 2017?

It’s a little confusing isn’t it, however a Roy Morgan Survey taken in mid-November shows only 31% of Australians think 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017, while 39% say 2018 will be ‘the same’ and 30% say 2018 will be ‘worse’. past-future1

Of concern is that 31% is the lowest figure ever recorded for Australians expecting next year to be ‘better’ and the 2017 results have the lowest net positive rating since 1990 when more Australians expected 1991 to be ‘worse’ (49%) than ‘better’ (33%).

This is the first time in the history of this survey conducted since 1980 that no answer has reached the 40% mark.

Australians are clearly less optimistic than their counterparts in New Zealand with a majority of New Zealanders (53%) saying 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 compared to only 26% that say 2018 will be ‘worse’.

The high level of optimism in New Zealand follows the rapid ascension of New Zealand Labour Leader Jacinda Ardern to become New Zealand’s new Prime Minister in October and the high level of optimism in New Zealand is driven by supporters of the new Government. See here for more details on New Zealand results.

This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,458 Australians aged 18+.

Next Year – Better or Worse? (Australia)

Roy Morgan Australia - Next Year - 'Better' or 'Worse' - Long-term Trend - November 2017

Source: Roy Morgan telephone & SMS surveys in Australia 1980-2017 with an average of 1,000 Australians aged 18+ interviewed each year. Question: “As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”

Next Year – Better or Worse? (Australia)

“As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”

19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990
%%%%%%%%%%%
Better4243325757523639474333
Same3326222425242321222218
Worse2531461918244140313549
TOTAL100100100100100100100100100100100

 

199119921993199419951996*19971998199920002001
%%%%%%%%%%%
Better5442606553n/a5055494653
Same2022221929n/a2825303321
Worse2636181618n/a2220212126
TOTAL100100100100100100100100100100100

*This survey wasn’t conducted in 1996.

200220032004200520062007200820092017
%%%%%%%%%
Better516861494753496631
Same161722222524171839
Worse331517292823341630
TOTAL100100100100100100100100100

Analysis by Age & Gender – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Roy Morgan Australia - Next Year - 'Better' or 'Worse' - Analysis by Age & Gender - November 2017

Source: This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,458 Australians aged 18+.

Slightly more men (33%) than women (29%) expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017, although there are also more men (31%) that say 2018 will be ‘worse’ than 2017 than women (29%).

Analysing by age group shows the usual trend with younger people more optimistic about 2018 than older people.

46% of 18-24 year olds expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017 – and this figure drops for each subsequent age group: 37% of 25-34yr olds, 31% of 35-49yr olds, 26% of 50-64yr olds and 20% of those aged 65+ say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017.

Total

Australia

GenderAgeTotal

NZ

MenWomen18-2425-3435-4950-6465+
%%%%%%%%%
Better313329463731262053
Same393642304038434221
Worse303129242331313826
TOTAL100100100100100100100100100

Analysis by States & Regions – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Roy Morgan Australia - Next Year - 'Better' or 'Worse' - Analysis by States - November 2017Source: This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,458 Australians aged 18+.

Analysing by States shows Victorians are most optimistic about 2018 with 33% expecting 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017 closely followed by West Australians (32%) and Queenslanders (31%).

These are the only three States in which there are more optimistic respondents than pessimistic.

In the other three States more respondents expect 2018 to be ‘worse’ than 2017 led by South Australia (36% say worse) and joined by New South Wales respondents (33%) and Tasmanians (29%).

 StatesCity/ Country 
Total

Australia

NSWVICQLDWASATASCityCountryTotal

NZ

%%%%%%%%%%
Better31283331322828293353
Same39393543463643403821
Worse30333226223629312926
TOTAL100100100100100100100100100100

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Analysing responses by federal voting intention shows slightly more L-NP supporters (31%) than ALP supporters (29%) expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017 and 30% of supporters of both parties say 2018 will be ‘worse’.

However it is Greens supporters who are most optimistic about 2018 – 34% of Greens supporters say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 compared to 33% who say it will be ‘worse’.

Total

Australia

ElectorsL-NPLabourGreensOtherCan’t sayNon electorsTotal

NZ

 %%%%%%%%%
Better313131293430373153
Same393839413333534221
Worse303130303337102726
TOTAL100100100100100100100100100

Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Australians are split three-ways on their views for 2018 with only 31% of Australians saying 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 only slightly more than the 30% that say 2018 will be ‘worse’ than 2017 and a further 39% that expect 2018 will be ‘the same’ as 2017. 

“Analysing these results closely shows that slightly more men (33%) than women (29%) expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017 while Victoria (33%), Western Australia (32%) and Queensland (31%) are slightly more optimistic about the future than New South Wales, South Australia and Tasmania – only 28% of respondents in these three States say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017.

“Analysing these results by age group show that younger Australians are far more optimistic about 2018 than older Australians – 46% of 18-24yr olds and 37% of 25-34yr olds say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 whereas only 31% of 35-49yr olds, 26% of 50-64yr olds and just 20% of those aged 65+ say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017.

“However, it is when comparing the results in Australia with those across the ditch in New Zealand that the Turnbull Government should be concerned. While only 31% of Australians are optimistic about 2018, a clear majority of 53% of New Zealanders say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 led by supporters of the new Labour-led Government of Jacinda Ardern.”

Finding No. 7416 – This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,458 Australians on November 13-15, 2017. They were asked “Do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”

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Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and one of Australia's 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media. Visit Metropole.com.au


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