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Australians are split on whether 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017

How do you feel about 2018?

Will it be better or worse than 2017?

It’s a little confusing isn’t it, however a Roy Morgan Survey taken in mid-November shows only 31% of Australians think 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017, while 39% say 2018 will be ‘the same’ and 30% say 2018 will be ‘worse’. past-future1

Of concern is that 31% is the lowest figure ever recorded for Australians expecting next year to be ‘better’ and the 2017 results have the lowest net positive rating since 1990 when more Australians expected 1991 to be ‘worse’ (49%) than ‘better’ (33%).

This is the first time in the history of this survey conducted since 1980 that no answer has reached the 40% mark.

Australians are clearly less optimistic than their counterparts in New Zealand with a majority of New Zealanders (53%) saying 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 compared to only 26% that say 2018 will be ‘worse’.

The high level of optimism in New Zealand follows the rapid ascension of New Zealand Labour Leader Jacinda Ardern to become New Zealand’s new Prime Minister in October and the high level of optimism in New Zealand is driven by supporters of the new Government. See here for more details on New Zealand results.

This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,458 Australians aged 18+.

Next Year – Better or Worse? (Australia)

Roy Morgan Australia - Next Year - 'Better' or 'Worse' - Long-term Trend - November 2017

Source: Roy Morgan telephone & SMS surveys in Australia 1980-2017 with an average of 1,000 Australians aged 18+ interviewed each year. Question: “As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”

Next Year – Better or Worse? (Australia)

“As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
% % % % % % % % % % %
Better 42 43 32 57 57 52 36 39 47 43 33
Same 33 26 22 24 25 24 23 21 22 22 18
Worse 25 31 46 19 18 24 41 40 31 35 49
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996* 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
% % % % % % % % % % %
Better 54 42 60 65 53 n/a 50 55 49 46 53
Same 20 22 22 19 29 n/a 28 25 30 33 21
Worse 26 36 18 16 18 n/a 22 20 21 21 26
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

*This survey wasn’t conducted in 1996.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2017
% % % % % % % % %
Better 51 68 61 49 47 53 49 66 31
Same 16 17 22 22 25 24 17 18 39
Worse 33 15 17 29 28 23 34 16 30
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Analysis by Age & Gender – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Roy Morgan Australia - Next Year - 'Better' or 'Worse' - Analysis by Age & Gender - November 2017

Source: This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,458 Australians aged 18+.

Slightly more men (33%) than women (29%) expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017, although there are also more men (31%) that say 2018 will be ‘worse’ than 2017 than women (29%).

Analysing by age group shows the usual trend with younger people more optimistic about 2018 than older people.

46% of 18-24 year olds expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017 – and this figure drops for each subsequent age group: 37% of 25-34yr olds, 31% of 35-49yr olds, 26% of 50-64yr olds and 20% of those aged 65+ say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017.

Total

Australia

Gender Age Total

NZ

Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+
% % % % % % % % %
Better 31 33 29 46 37 31 26 20 53
Same 39 36 42 30 40 38 43 42 21
Worse 30 31 29 24 23 31 31 38 26
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Analysis by States & Regions – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Roy Morgan Australia - Next Year - 'Better' or 'Worse' - Analysis by States - November 2017Source: This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,458 Australians aged 18+.

Analysing by States shows Victorians are most optimistic about 2018 with 33% expecting 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017 closely followed by West Australians (32%) and Queenslanders (31%).

These are the only three States in which there are more optimistic respondents than pessimistic.

In the other three States more respondents expect 2018 to be ‘worse’ than 2017 led by South Australia (36% say worse) and joined by New South Wales respondents (33%) and Tasmanians (29%).

  States City/ Country  
Total

Australia

NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS City Country Total

NZ

% % % % % % % % % %
Better 31 28 33 31 32 28 28 29 33 53
Same 39 39 35 43 46 36 43 40 38 21
Worse 30 33 32 26 22 36 29 31 29 26
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Analysing responses by federal voting intention shows slightly more L-NP supporters (31%) than ALP supporters (29%) expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017 and 30% of supporters of both parties say 2018 will be ‘worse’.

However it is Greens supporters who are most optimistic about 2018 – 34% of Greens supporters say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 compared to 33% who say it will be ‘worse’.

Total

Australia

Electors L-NP Labour Greens Other Can’t say Non electors Total

NZ

  % % % % % % % % %
Better 31 31 31 29 34 30 37 31 53
Same 39 38 39 41 33 33 53 42 21
Worse 30 31 30 30 33 37 10 27 26
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Australians are split three-ways on their views for 2018 with only 31% of Australians saying 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 only slightly more than the 30% that say 2018 will be ‘worse’ than 2017 and a further 39% that expect 2018 will be ‘the same’ as 2017. 

1-percent

“Analysing these results closely shows that slightly more men (33%) than women (29%) expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017 while Victoria (33%), Western Australia (32%) and Queensland (31%) are slightly more optimistic about the future than New South Wales, South Australia and Tasmania – only 28% of respondents in these three States say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017.

“Analysing these results by age group show that younger Australians are far more optimistic about 2018 than older Australians – 46% of 18-24yr olds and 37% of 25-34yr olds say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 whereas only 31% of 35-49yr olds, 26% of 50-64yr olds and just 20% of those aged 65+ say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017.

“However, it is when comparing the results in Australia with those across the ditch in New Zealand that the Turnbull Government should be concerned. While only 31% of Australians are optimistic about 2018, a clear majority of 53% of New Zealanders say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 led by supporters of the new Labour-led Government of Jacinda Ardern.”

Finding No. 7416 – This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,458 Australians on November 13-15, 2017. They were asked “Do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”



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Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and his opinions are regularly featured in the media. Visit Metropole.com.au


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