Australians are split on whether 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017

How do you feel about 2018?

Will it be better or worse than 2017?

It's a little confusing isn't it, however a Roy Morgan Survey taken in mid-November shows only 31% of Australians think 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017, while 39% say 2018 will be ‘the same’ and 30% say 2018 will be ‘worse’. 

Of concern is that 31% is the lowest figure ever recorded for Australians expecting next year to be ‘better’ and the 2017 results have the lowest net positive rating since 1990 when more Australians expected 1991 to be ‘worse’ (49%) than ‘better’ (33%).

This is the first time in the history of this survey conducted since 1980 that no answer has reached the 40% mark.

Australians are clearly less optimistic than their counterparts in New Zealand with a majority of New Zealanders (53%) saying 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 compared to only 26% that say 2018 will be ‘worse’.

The high level of optimism in New Zealand follows the rapid ascension of New Zealand Labour Leader Jacinda Ardern to become New Zealand’s new Prime Minister in October and the high level of optimism in New Zealand is driven by supporters of the new Government. See here for more details on New Zealand results.

This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,458 Australians aged 18+.

Next Year – Better or Worse? (Australia)

Source: Roy Morgan telephone & SMS surveys in Australia 1980-2017 with an average of 1,000 Australians aged 18+ interviewed each year. Question: “As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”

Next Year – Better or Worse? (Australia)

“As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”

	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Better	42	43	32	57	57	52	36	39	47	43	33
Same	33	26	22	24	25	24	23	21	22	22	18
Worse	25	31	46	19	18	24	41	40	31	35	49
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

 

	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996*	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Better	54	42	60	65	53	n/a	50	55	49	46	53
Same	20	22	22	19	29	n/a	28	25	30	33	21
Worse	26	36	18	16	18	n/a	22	20	21	21	26
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*This survey wasn’t conducted in 1996.

	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2017
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Better	51	68	61	49	47	53	49	66	31
Same	16	17	22	22	25	24	17	18	39
Worse	33	15	17	29	28	23	34	16	30
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Analysis by Age & Gender – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Source: This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,458 Australians aged 18+.

Slightly more men (33%) than women (29%) expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017, although there are also more men (31%) that say 2018 will be ‘worse’ than 2017 than women (29%).

Analysing by age group shows the usual trend with younger people more optimistic about 2018 than older people.

46% of 18-24 year olds expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017 – and this figure drops for each subsequent age group: 37% of 25-34yr olds, 31% of 35-49yr olds, 26% of 50-64yr olds and 20% of those aged 65+ say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017.

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	Total Australia	Gender		Age					Total NZ
		Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Better	31	33	29	46	37	31	26	20	53
Same	39	36	42	30	40	38	43	42	21
Worse	30	31	29	24	23	31	31	38	26
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Analysis by States & Regions – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Source: This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,458 Australians aged 18+.

Analysing by States shows Victorians are most optimistic about 2018 with 33% expecting 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017 closely followed by West Australians (32%) and Queenslanders (31%).

These are the only three States in which there are more optimistic respondents than pessimistic.

In the other three States more respondents expect 2018 to be ‘worse’ than 2017 led by South Australia (36% say worse) and joined by New South Wales respondents (33%) and Tasmanians (29%).

		States						City/ Country
	Total Australia	NSW	VIC	QLD	WA	SA	TAS	City	Country	Total NZ
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Better	31	28	33	31	32	28	28	29	33	53
Same	39	39	35	43	46	36	43	40	38	21
Worse	30	33	32	26	22	36	29	31	29	26
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Analysing responses by federal voting intention shows slightly more L-NP supporters (31%) than ALP supporters (29%) expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017 and 30% of supporters of both parties say 2018 will be ‘worse’.

However it is Greens supporters who are most optimistic about 2018 – 34% of Greens supporters say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 compared to 33% who say it will be ‘worse’.

	Total Australia	Electors	L-NP	Labour	Greens	Other	Can’t say	Non electors	Total NZ
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Better	31	31	31	29	34	30	37	31	53
Same	39	38	39	41	33	33	53	42	21
Worse	30	31	30	30	33	37	10	27	26
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Australians are split three-ways on their views for 2018 with only 31% of Australians saying 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 only slightly more than the 30% that say 2018 will be ‘worse’ than 2017 and a further 39% that expect 2018 will be ‘the same’ as 2017. 

“Analysing these results closely shows that slightly more men (33%) than women (29%) expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017 while Victoria (33%), Western Australia (32%) and Queensland (31%) are slightly more optimistic about the future than New South Wales, South Australia and Tasmania – only 28% of respondents in these three States say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017.

“Analysing these results by age group show that younger Australians are far more optimistic about 2018 than older Australians – 46% of 18-24yr olds and 37% of 25-34yr olds say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 whereas only 31% of 35-49yr olds, 26% of 50-64yr olds and just 20% of those aged 65+ say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017.

“However, it is when comparing the results in Australia with those across the ditch in New Zealand that the Turnbull Government should be concerned. While only 31% of Australians are optimistic about 2018, a clear majority of 53% of New Zealanders say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 led by supporters of the new Labour-led Government of Jacinda Ardern.”

Finding No. 7416 – This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,458 Australians on November 13-15, 2017. They were asked “Do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”