A 1,000 increase in Australia’s population equals another 800 more vehicles on the road

Much is written about population growth and its positive impact on most things economic.

But there is also a sting in that tale.

Despite the intelligentsia telling us the opposite, the number of vehicles per capita, is on the rise in Australia.

It is currently 794 vehicles per 1,000 bodies.

It was 777 just before Covid hit our shores and just 646 a generation ago.

See chart 1.

Gentrification, urbanisation, uberisation plus all those other trendy urban movements haven’t yet had an impact on our car use and especially the number of cars on our streets.

Even Covid has had little impact.

There are just over 21 million registered vehicles in Australia, which is up 403,300 more vehicles per annum between 2019 and 2023.

Australia’s resident population lifted by 328,500, on average, each year over the same five-year period.

Pity our road and parking capacity hasn’t increased anything like that volume over the same time frame.

It is no surprise that traffic congestion has become much worse and many of our streets are now parking lots.

Even the Queensland Premier is bemoaning its negative impact, calling for a decline in Australia’s population growth while tossing around 50 cent pieces so that more Queenslanders might catch public transport.

Good luck with that given that Queensland has one of the highest ratios of cars per population – at 842 cars and/or trucks per 1,000 people - and has seen the largest increase in vehicles since 2019 - see chart 2 - with the biggest lift in cars per capita too.

The Olympics and other big-ticket government projects might have something to do with that. 

Earlier this month, whilst driving around the southeast corner of the state, I saw a lot of tradies driving utes with interstate licence plates. 

Furthermore, some 80% of people living in southeast Queensland use their car as the main means to travel. 

This is much higher than in Sydney and Melbourne.

A lot of folks – especially the pollies and, it seems, town planners and even traffic engineers, don’t really understand how people commute around Australian cities.

Go here to revisit my urban commutes post.

I have updated it in parts, and it remains relevant, in fact, more so since COVID-19.

Back to cars, some capitals and other major urban regions do have a lower ratio of cars per capita.

There appear to be several reasons why including a more decentralised workforce; more medium-density infill housing across the middle and outer suburbs; a large range of effective public transport options and/or a strong culture of public transport use.

Yet when you hear all the positives about population growth – and I do believe that Australia does need to grow its population base, but we need to spend money on the right infrastructure (not white elephants) in concert with smarter urban and housing governance before we put more bums on seats - remember 1,000 additional people means nearly 800 more cars across Australia, and closer to 850 more cars, in Queensland.

An end note

Maybe GoGet and other car-sharing schemes might reduce this trend.

However, I am not that convinced.

For mine, the key is to get people working closer to where they live and to provide housing closer to where they work.

Yet, despite COVID-19’s impact, most councils and state governments still have planning schemes and policies that do the opposite.

Editor's Note: this article was originally published last year, but has been republished for the benefit of our many new subscribers.

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About Michael Matusik Michael is director of independent property advisory Matusik Property Insights. He is independent, perceptive and to the point; has helped over 550 new residential developments come to fruition and writes his insightful Matusik Missive