Australia is currently experiencing extremely high volumes of overseas migration.
In 2022-23, the level of net overseas migration was 528,420 - far in excess of previous highs recorded.
Some of this is thought to be "catch-up" migration, as people start to travel again after the restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.
It remains to be seen how long these high levels are sustained into the future.
The rise of China and India
In the last twenty years, the number of arrivals from China and India has risen considerably.
These countries are now among the most common places of birth in the Australian population.
England remains the most common birthplace, but it's clear that this dominance is diminishing.
The graph below shows the population of people born in England, India and China between 1996 and 2023.
The growth in the Indian-born population has been nothing short of phenomenal.
Migration from India to Australia has been occurring since the 1960s, and in 2003, there were 119,430 Indian-born persons in Australia.
In 2023 there were almost 850,000, despite a slight decline in 2021.
This represents a seven-fold increase or about 10% a year over the twenty-year period.
In 2022-23 alone, there was an increase of 92,070 Indian-born persons, the highest on record.
The median age of this population is 35.7 years, younger than the Australian population as a whole.
The Chinese-born population shows a similar trend, but the pace has slowed.
Moreover, there was a sharp decline in the number of Chinese-born people during the pandemic.
The 2023 population was 655,760, which is still below the peak population of 661,460 recorded in 2019.
Over the last decade, however, the Chinese population has increased by around 50%.
The median age is 39.4 years.
At the same time, the population born in England has been relatively stable, numbering some 961,570 in 2023.
This compares with 920,680 in 2003, and a slightly higher figure of 1.013 million in 2013.
This stable trend is replicated amongst all countries in the United Kingdom.
It demonstrates not only how the source countries of migrants have changed but also needs to be viewed in line with their age profile, out-migration and mortality.
Of the three countries analysed here, England has the highest median age (59.2 years) and this has generally been increasing. From a demographic perspective it means that in the absence of strong migration, mortality starts to impact the size of this population.
If the Indian-born population continues to grow at a pace recorded in the five years prior to the pandemic (around 55,000 per annum) it's likely that it will become the most common birthplace in Australia around 2026 ie ahead of England (but not the United Kingdom).
This is my early tip for the 2026 Census!
Emerging communities
Nepal has emerged as one of the major overseas-born communities in Australia over the last decade.
In 2023, there were an estimated 179,050 Nepalese-born people in Australia, a five-fold increase since 2013.
There are now more Nepalese-born people in Australia than Italian-born - the latter is an ageing community that is declining primarily through mortality.
Other overseas-born communities that have more than doubled in size since 2013 include Pakistan, Brazil, Colombia and Syria.
But the rise of Bhutan is worthy of mention.
Although this community currently numbers around 27,810, it compares to 3,980 in 2013, and only 100 in 2003.
This should also be considered in light of the fact that Bhutan itself has a population of around 727,000.
In other words, the Bhutan-born population in Australia is around 4% of Bhutan's actual population.
A large diaspora indeed!
Where does the Indian-born population live?
At the 2021 Census, the Indian-born population comprised 2.6% of the total.
It is primarily an urban-based population, concentrated in parts of our major cities. The table below shows the top ten LGAs for Indian-born persons in Australia.
There are four LGAs where more than 10% of the population are born in India.
This is headed by Wyndham, on Melbourne's western outskirts, with an Indian-born population of more than 50,000.
This represents 17.3% of the population or almost one in five people.
Outside of the cities, the LGA of Griffith in southern NSW had the highest proportion of Indian-born people (7.0%), or around 1,900 people.
Greater Shepparton, in northern Victoria, had a slightly higher number (1,981), but this represented 2.9% of the population.
Where does the Chinese-born population live?
People born in China also tend to live in our major cities, particularly Sydney and Melbourne.
The table below shows that there are ten LGAs where the Chinese-born population comprise more than 11% of the population (approximately one in nine people).
In Burwood LGA, 18.1% of the population were born in China.
This is followed by Georges River (13.9%) and Whitehorse (13.0%). The only LGA in the top ten not located in Sydney or Melbourne was Adelaide, where 12% of the population were born in China.
The proportion of Chinese-born people living in regional areas is relatively low.
Gold Coast LGA recorded the highest proportion (1.4%), or about 8,770 people.
However, the Gold Coast is a large urban area, not a regional area in the traditional sense.
Junee, in central west NSW, also has a Chinese-born population of 1.4%, but this amounted to just 93 people.
Summary
Although England remains the most common overseas-born country in Australia, the numbers have been relatively stable over the last twenty years.
At the same time, the number of Indian and Chinese-born people living in Australia has increased rapidly.
The Indian and Chinese populations tend to live in Australia's major cities, particularly Sydney and Melbourne.
Their numbers are likely to increase given recent migration trends, and it's possible that India will become the most common birthplace in 2026.
