A recent study by CoreLogic using deciles to analyse dwelling value falls for properties at the top end of the market compares growth across the most affordable 10% of properties (1st decile) and the most expensive 10% (10th decile) by splitting the market into 10 even segments.
The research shows that over the past 12 months, dwelling values have fallen by -0.4% nationally.
While most people are aware of differing city-tocity value changes within a geography, properties within different value bands can also see quite different changes in values.
While national dwelling values are -0.4% lower over the past year, the most affordable 10% of properties have seen values rise 1.8% while the most expensive 10% of properties have recorded a fall of -5.0%.
Across the combined capital cities, dwelling values have fallen – 1.1% over the past 12 months.
Looking at the 1st decile, values have increased by 1.3% over the past year while across the 10th decile values have fallen by -5.7%.
Of note is that when values move down over recent years, declines across the most affordable properties have been significantly smaller than the declines across the most expensive properties.
The opposite is generally the case during the growth phase, where the most expensive properties have generally outperformed the broader market.
Combined regional market values increased by 2.2% over the past year with the most affordable properties recording growth of 4.9% and the most expensive recording a rise of 2.1%.
The most affordable 10% of properties have consistently outperformed growth across the median and the 10th decile over recent years.
In fact over the 20 year period shown the most affordable 10% of properties have never recorded an annual decline in values.
Sydney has seen the largest declines of all capital cities over the past year with values -4.2% lower.
Across the 1st decile, values are 1.0% higher while the 10th decile has recorded value falls of – 7.3%.
Over recent downturns, the declines across the most expensive properties have been much greater than those across the most affordable.
For example in the 2008 downturn, the 1st decile recorded peak to trough falls of -2.1% while the 10th decile saw values fall -14.3%.
Similarly in the 2010-12 correction, the 1st decile saw values continue to rise while the 10th decile saw values fall -9.9%.
A surge in first home buyers taking advantage of stamp duty concession is likely helping to keep a floor under housing demand across the more affordable valuation bands which is supporting the stronger conditions across the lower valued end of the market.
Over the past year, Melbourne dwelling values have increased by 2.2% with the 1st decile recording an increase of 10.3% while the 10th decile has seen value fall -3.5%.
Like Sydney in recant downturns the most expensive properties have fallen much more than the most affordable.
During the 2008 downturn, values across the 10th decile fell -17.5% while values in the 1st decile continued to grow.
During the 2010-12 downturn, the 1st decile recorded peak to trough falls of -6.0% compared to a -12.7% decline across the 10th decile.
Similar to Sydney, first home buyers have become more active since July last year, likely supporting stronger housing market conditions at the more affordable price points.
Over the long-term, values of the most affordable properties in Brisbane have increased at a much faster pace than the median and the most expensive 10%.
Over the past year, dwelling values are 0.9% higher however, the 1st decile has recorded an increase of 1.1% compared to a 0.5% increase across the 10th decile.
Like Sydney and Melbourne, during the 2008 downturn, the 1st decile recorded a more moderate decline (-6.6%) than the 10th decile (- 11.5%).
Where Brisbane differs is during the 2010-12 downturn, the 10th decile actually reordered a slightly more moderate fall (- 11.9%) than the 1st decile (-12.6%).
Although Adelaide values are still rising, the 10th decile has actually recorded a decline in values over the past year while 1st decile values have continued to rise.
Over the past 12 months, 1st decile values have increased by 1.1% while 10th decile values have fallen by -1.1%.
Like most other capital cities, in recent downturns the 10th decile has recorded much larger value falls than the 1st decile.
During the 2008 downturn values fell 1.6% across the 1st decile compared to -6.9% across the 10th and in the 2010-12 downturn 1st decile values fell -5.9% compared to a – 12.0% fall across the 10th decile.
Over recent years, values across the 10th decile have typically underperformed in terms of growth compared to the median and compared to the most affordable properties.
The performance has changed somewhat over the past 12 months with the 1st decile recording a fall in values of -2.8% while the 10th decile recorded an increase in values of 2.1%.
The Perth housing market has been consistently weak over recent years, over the past decade, values have fallen by -4.9% with the 1st decile seeing values increasing 12.4% while to 10th decile has seen values fall -14.5%.
Hobart dwelling values are currently rising faster than any other capital city in the country however, values across the 1st decile are rising at a more rapid pace than those across the 10th decile.
Over the past 12 months 1st decile values have increased by 18.4% while 10th decile values have increase by a substantial, but much more moderate rate of 9.4%.
Over the past decade, 1st decile values in Hobart have risen by 53.3% while 10th decile values are up by less than half of that at 21.3%.
Since their peak in May 2014, dwelling values in Darwin have fallen by -21.3%.
Over the past 12 months, values across Darwin’s first decile have fallen by -5.3% compared to a decline of more than double that (13.5%) across the 10th decile.
Outside of a short period in 2016, the 1st decile has consistently recorded stronger value growth than the median and the 10th decile.
Compared to their historic peak, 1st decile values are -24.9% lower whereas 10th decile values are -35.0% lower.
Historically, the 1st decile properties in Canberra have recorded much greater increases in values than the 10th decile.
Over the past year, he said the long-term trend has held true with 1st decile values 2.1% higher and 10th decile values increasing by 2.0%.
Throughout the recent housing market downturns, the 10th decile has typically experienced greater value declines than the 1st decile.
In the 2008 downturn, 1st decile values fell by -2.3% compared to an -8.0% decline across 10th decile values. Similarly in the 2010-12 downturn, falls across the 1st decile were fairly moderate (-2.8%) compared to much greater falls across the 10th decile (-14.5%).
Overwhelmingly, the data shows long-term values at the more affordable end of the housing market increased at a faster pace than the most expensive properties and highlights that when there is a housing market downturn lower-valued properties typically experience much more moderate declines than the higher valued housing stock.
With values now falling in Sydney and Melbourne, much greater value falls are already being experienced at the top-end of the market and this trend is expected to continue as values continue to recede.
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