Key takeaways
The Reserve Bank of Australia updated its forecasts and kept the cash rate on hold at 4.35% for August. The money markets are suggesting interest rates may fall sooner than Christmas, with the first cut likely to occur as early as November this year.
Focus on buying investment-grade properties because they hold their value better and perform better at all stages of the property cycle.
Buyers look for safety and security at times of uncertainty and change, meaning a flight to quality.
There are fresh predictions of an impending cash rate cut in Australia, which could cause widespread implications for Australian property investors which are both positive and negative.
After announcing it had decided to keep the cash rate on hold at 4.35% for August, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) updated its forecasts.
Right now, the RBA expects inflation, now at 3.8%, to be in the 2%-3% target range by the end of next year.
While RBA governor Michelle Bullock suggested not expecting an interest rate cut before Christmas, the money markets are suggesting rates may fall sooner.
Economists at Australia’s big four banks predict that we’ve seen the peak of the most recent round of rate rises, with rate cuts expected to happen as early as November this year.
CommBank predicts that the first cut is likely to occur around November, with rates eventually dropping to around 3.10% by the end of 2025.
ANZ predicts the first cuts will start a little later, around February of next year, with rates dropping to a level of around 3.60% by the end of 2025.
Meanwhile, NAB economists predict the first cut to occur around May of 2025, with rates reducing to 3.60% by the end of 2025.
Incoming interest rate cuts. What does this mean for investors?
An impending cash rate cut by the RBA can have several significant implications for Australian property investors, both positive and negative.
Positive impacts of lower interest rates for property investors
- Lower mortgage rates: A cash rate cut typically leads to lower interest rates on mortgages which reduces the cost of borrowing, making it cheaper for property investors to finance new purchases or refinance existing loans.
- Increased property demand: Lower borrowing costs can increase demand for property as more people are able to afford mortgages. This can lead to higher property prices and increased capital gains for investors.
- Higher rental yields: With lower interest rates, the cost of servicing a mortgage decreases, potentially leading to higher net rental yields. This is especially beneficial for investors who rely on rental income.
- Improved cash flow: Reduced mortgage repayments can improve cash flow for property investors, providing more funds for maintenance, renovations, or additional investments.
- Property value appreciation: Increased demand for property often results in higher property values. Investors can benefit from capital appreciation over time.
Negative impacts of lower interest rates for property investors
- Increased competition: Lower interest rates can attract more investors and homebuyers into the market, increasing competition for properties. This can make it harder to find good deals.
- Potentially lower rental demand: Australia’s rental market is red hot, with demand far outstripping supply. But if the cash rate cut significantly stimulates home buying, some renters might opt to purchase homes instead, taking some pressure off demand.
- Variable rate risks: While initial mortgage costs may be lower, investors with variable rate mortgages are exposed to the risk of future interest rate increases, which could raise their repayment costs.
- Economic dependency: The property market’s health becomes more closely tied to the interest rate environment. If rates rise again, the market could face downward pressure.
So, how should investors prepare for an interest rate cut?
If the money market and the big banks are correct and the RBA lowers the cash rate in late 2024 or early 2025, here’s how investors can ensure they don’t get caught out.
- Focus on investment-grade properties
This isn’t a tip that is exclusive to impending-rate-cut-times, but it's more important than ever when change is afoot.
Always focus on buying investment-grade properties because these types of properties hold their value and perform better at all stages of the property cycle.
Demand for quality means an investment-grade property will always have a depth of buyers wanting to buy it regardless of market conditions.
And remember, at times when there is uncertainty and change, buyers look for safety and security - they're not prepared to speculate, meaning there is a flight to quality.
These types of properties, therefore, make the best investments because they will withstand market volatility the best and generate the best capital growth.
2. Focus on A-grade location
As I always say, location does 80% of the heavy lifting of a property’s capital gain.
Similarly to investment-grade properties, investors should focus on A-grade locations.
These are areas with strong rental demand and potential for capital growth, such as those with good infrastructure, employment opportunities and amenities.
Properties in these areas will be able to withstand change better than other parts of the market and deliver more stable capital growth.
3. Evaluate your cash flow
This is a time when investors should carefully assess the cash flow implications of any new property investments to ensure that they are able to cover mortgage repayments and other expenses.
4. Monitor the market
Investors should keep a close eye on market trends and economic indicators and keep abreast of changes ahead.
5. Manufacture your own capital growth
Property renovations ahead of refinancing to a better rate can help free up additional equity.
Even simple touch-ups such as painting, decluttering, kitchen or bathroom updates and minor landscaping can generate higher rental income if demand cools from prospective tenants and may make a difference when it comes to assessing your property’s value.
6. Think about holding off on plans to refinance
Property investors who have owned a property for several years are probably sitting on a lot of equity, and while it might be tempting to refinance or pull out some equity, think carefully about the timing.
Holding off might save you money with rates due to tumble in 2025.
But, of course, you will have to balance this against the loss of opportunity because, as I always say, time in the market is more important than timing the market.
7. Diversity your portfolio
Diversifying investments across different types of properties (residential, commercial, industrial) and locations is a good way to spread risk ahead of interest rate cuts.
Once the rate cuts do come, some parts of the market will fare better than others.
A final word…
With rate cuts due in Australia as early as late 2024 and the potential for more down the line, there are significant implications for investors, both good and bad.
However, a well-positioned investor who holds investment-grade properties in an A-grade location will be able to reap the reward of lower rates without suffering from a lack of demand and dented capital growth.
While it’s true that we don’t really know what the future of Australia’s interest rates will bring, investors who are able to get all their ducks in a row ahead of time will be the ones who benefit the most.
