Well, it’s the beginning of the New Year, in fact, the beginning of a new decade.
It wasn’t that long ago I remember the turn-of-the-century when we were all worried about the Y2K bug.
All those predictions of mayhem that didn’t occur.
In fact, we are now 20% through the 21st century – that’s a scary thought isn’t it.
So, what’s ahead for the new decade?
I’m sure there will be lots of scary predictions, and my first prediction is that most predictions will be wrong.
But to get an idea of what might remain the same over the next decade and what might be different let’s have a chat with Australia’s leading housing economist Dr. Andrew Wilson and chief economist of myhousingmarket.com.au
What will stay the same:
- Australia’s population will keep growing and adding around 400,000 people per annum
- Net migration will account for over half this increase
- The population growth will remain concentrated in Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane
- We’ll have the requirement for 170 -190,000 new dwellings each year
- Property prices will continue to increase because Australians including the hundreds of thousands of new migrants will continue to aspire to homeownership.
- Property investment will remain the way many Australia’s secure their financial futures and more Australian’s will turn to property investment as the returns for other asset classes dwindle.
- The property pessimists will still be out there telling us our property markets are going to crash
- Property spruikers and get rich quick artists will still be there taking money from naïve property investors looking to get rich quick
- More of us will move to medium and high-density living – apartments and townhouses – the dream of owning a quarter acre block will be nearly gone
- The younger generations will continue to leave regional Australia for the big smoke
What will be different:
- Low interest rate, low inflation, low wages growth environment
- Cycles may be flatter because of the above
- Most Baby Boomers will have retired and Gen X will be coming up to retirement age
- Pension system won’t be able to cope, and superannuation won’t be enough to support your longer life
- 30-40% of the jobs we know could disappear in the next decade
Links and Resources:
Some of our favourite quotes from the show:
“If we want to decentralize, there’s going to have to be some different policies.” – Michael Yardney
“People are going to trade backyards for balconies and courtyards, they’re going to want, as our cities become bigger, be in closer proximity to amenities, to lifestyle, to public transport.” – Michael Yardney
“Owner-occupiers go into the market with very different headspace than investors. So, it’s lovely to be able to invest in a market that’s not dominated by investors.” – Michael Yardney
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