Much of the Australian economy is being kept on temporary life support either by federal government schemes or through bank relief.
These assistance measures are slated to end after 6 months, but clearly the coronavirus crisis won’t be over by then, and unemployment probably won’t return to normal levels for a few years.
People are wondering what’s going to happen to house prices, unemployment, and our economy once these protections are taken away, and there are lots of forecasts coming up.
That’s one of the things I want to talk to John Lindeman about today.
Many of the upcoming predictions are bound to be wrong, so we’re going to have a chat about what you should be looking for when you’re looking at forecasts, and he’s also going to share a great analogy with you about a plane flight and our property markets to help you understand where we are in the market at the moment, and how to pick the turning points.
And then, in my mindset moment, I’m going to show you 11 ways to fail.
You may not want to fail but knowing how to fail can actually help you to succeed in life.
Highlights from my chat with John Lindeman
- How predictions often combine different types of property together
- Predictions tend to lump different types of housing together, like apartments and houses
- They also combine large geographic areas, when in actuality, coastal areas, outer suburbs, and inner rings of cities may perform very differently.
- Predictions that lump too many different factors, geographic areas, or types of housing together are largely useless
- The difference between expectations and predictions
- Expectations are based on knowledge of what has happened in the past and extrapolating from that what will likely happen in the future
- Predictions are more specifically aimed and therefore less likely to be accurate
- How to time the turnaround
- Signs that things are starting to look up.
Links and Resources:
Some of our favourite quotes from the show:
“I see a big difference between an expectation and a forecast.” – Michael Yardney
“Those who are happy and successful don’t necessarily have a more blessed or lucky life than the other mob.” – Michael Yardney
“Cynicism requires a lot less work than belief in something.” – Michael Yardney
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