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Falling Home Prices Accelerate Over June | Latest stats from Dr. Andrew Wilson

key takeaways

Key takeaways

Capital city home prices have continued to fall over June with the monthly rate of decline generally accelerating.

The national capital city median house price fell by 0.9% over the June quarter to $1,274,503 compared to the May quarter, according to the latest data from My Housing Market.

National unit prices have also continued to decline over the June quarter compared to the May quarter, down by just 0.2% to $722,270 – but have increased by 5.9% compared to the May quarter 2025 result.

Most capitals again reported lower or flat unit prices over the month with Darwin, Hobart Perth and Brisbane the exceptions with increases of 1.6%, 1.5%, 0.1% and 0.1% respectively.

Capital city home prices have continued to fall over June with the monthly rate of decline generally accelerating.

The national capital city median house price fell by 0.9% over the June quarter to $1,274,503 compared to the May quarter, according to the latest data from My Housing Market.

The June result was the second consecutive decline in national house prices and the sharpest fall since August 2022.

Annual national house prices however remain higher by 6.2%.

National Quarterly Median House Price

Most capitals again reported lower house price over the month with Darwin the only capital to report growth – up by 1.4% and Perth steady.

Hobart house prices fell by 0.2%, Adelaide and Brisbane were each down 0.6%, Sydney fell 1.1%, Melbourne down 1.4% and Canberra prices were lower over the month by 1.9%.

Quarterly Median House Prices June 2026

Median Month This Year 1 Year 2 Year
Sydney $1,725,934 -1.1% -2.7% 1.5% 6.3%
Melbourne $1,071,880 -1.4% -4.4% -0.8% 1.4%
Brisbane $1,215,690 -0.6% 4.3% 16.6% 27.1%
Adelaide $1,125,032 -0.6% 2.4% 10.9% 21.8%
Perth $1,212,448 0.0% 8.4% 21.6% 35.5%
Hobart $774,167 -0.2% 3.2% 10.3% 17.0%
Darwin $795,525 1.3% 4.6% 19.3% 27.5%
Canberra $978,536 -1.9% -2.9% 1.7% 1.2%
National $1,274,503 -0.9% -0.3% 6.2% 12.3%

National unit prices were also lower

National unit prices have also continued to decline over the June quarter compared to the May quarter, down by just 0.2% to $722,270 – but have increased by 5.9% compared to the May quarter 2025 result.

Although still falling, the unit market continues to clearly outperform the house price market

National Quarterly Median Unit Price

Most capitals again reported lower or flat unit prices over the month with Darwin, Hobart Perth and Brisbane the exceptions with increases of 1.6%, 1.5%, 0.1% and 0.1% respectively.

Quarterly Median Unit Prices June 2026

Median Month This Year 1 Year 2 Year
Sydney $805,810 -0.4% -0.4% 1.5% 3.6%
Melbourne $587,825 0.0% -1.7% 3.3% 2.8%
Brisbane $776,391 0.1% 9.3% 25.2% 45.4%
Adelaide $627,327 -0.2% -0.4% 11.6% 25.8%
Perth $690,099 0.1% 11.3% 25.5% 44.8%
Hobart $585,747 1.5% 9.2% 6.2% 18.2%
Darwin $465,193 1.6% 8.3% 21.7% 29.2%
Canberra $516,689 -1.1% 1.8% 2.6% 0.2%
National $722,270 -0.2% 1.1% 5.9% 9.8%

Similar to houses, Perth, Brisbane, Darwin and Adelaide continue to record the highest annual unit price growth to June 2026, up by 25.5%, 25.2%, 21.7% and 11.6% respectively.

Comment

Capital city housing markets are now generally in decline and are set to remain in that state at least over winter – particularly houses.

Reduced buyer and seller activity predictably reflects the impact on affordability and confidence of consecutive official interest rate increases in February, March and May.

Increased uncertainty over the economic outlook and significant changes to federal property taxes have also impacted market activity.

The outlook for home prices through 2026 is now increasingly problematic although the likelihood of further near-term interest rate increases is diminishing with the recent sharp fall in international oil prices – if sustained.

The economy however currently remains reasonably strong with a lower jobless rate following the previous months highest level reported in 6 years - that still provides a warning sign to the RBA that may act to moderate higher rate decisions in the shorter-term.

Housing demand continues to outpace low and diminishing housing supply and although high post-COVID migration levels have clearly eased recently, numbers remain solid and will add to chronic housing undersupply supporting high rents and low vacancy rates generally in capital city rental markets.

Following a period of easing rental growth, the latest data continues to report extraordinarily low home rental vacancy rates and predictable signs that rents are on the rise again.

Recently announced changes to property taxes designed to reduce investor activity will likely place further upward pressure on rents.

Capital city housing markets generally recorded higher house and unit prices over 2023, 2024 and surged over 2025 fuelled by rising buyer and seller confidence through sharp cuts to interest rates.

2026 is now likely to report lower home price outcomes compared to the previous three years with uncertainty remaining over the near-term future for interest rates and easing economic activity that will generally continue to dampen buyer and seller confidence and undermine housing affordability - at least over the typically distracted and quieter winter period.

 

Andrew Wilson
About Dr. Andrew Wilson Dr Andrew Wilson, Chief Economist of www.MyHousingMarket.com.au is widely regarded as Australia’s leading property economist.
42 comments

"Falling Home Prices Accelerate Over June | Latest stats from Dr. Andrew Wilson" I pointed this out back in April 2026 this was happening and that Dr Wilson was way out of touch but your were all in denial. And I can tell you now the situation now ...Read full version

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"Falling Home Prices Accelerate Over June | Latest stats from Dr. Andrew Wilson" So Micheal. Do you finally concede that I have been correct all along about the failing auction results and the declining prices over the last 2 months? You havent re ...Read full version

1 reply

"Home Prices Now Falling Following Rate Rises " Well congratulations on catching up with whats actually happening on the ground right now. Ive been sayingfor last 2 months that auction clearance rates have collapsed and prices are falling. Real es ...Read full version

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