Here is how demographics is affecting our property markets

While Australia’s population continues to grow quite rapidly, the rate of growth has slowed.

It was estimated that at the end of the June 2018 quarter, the national population was 24,992,369 persons.

Australia’s population increased by 1.6% or 390,509 persons over the 12 months to June 2018.

The 390,509 annual person increase in the national population was slightly higher than the previous quarter but well down on the 410,953 person increase the previous year.

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Net overseas migration is slowing as an increasing number of Australians move abroad

Population growth nationally is comprised of net overseas migration as well as the natural increase in the population (births minus deaths).

MigrationState based migration also includes net interstate migration which cancels out at a national level.

Net overseas migration was recorded at 236,734 persons over the 12 months to June 2018 which was -10.1% lower than at the same time in 2017 due to fewer overseas arrivals and a relatively high number of overseas departures.

Net overseas migration over the year was the lowest it has been since September 2016.

Natural increase rose by 4.2% over the year and was recorded at 153,775 persons.

With the federal government scaling back migration levels and further falls possible in the lead-up to the next election it is likely that while net overseas migration will remain elevated it is likely to be lower over the coming quarters.

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Victoria remains the population growth powerhouse of the nation

The population of New South Wales increased by 1.5% or 119,328 persons over the 12 months to June 2018.

The 1.5% growth the largest annual in three quarters.

Victoria’s population increased by a nation-leading 2.2% over the 12 months to June 2018 with the population increasing by 138,159 residents over the year.

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Although the increase in population was substantial it was the smallest annual change since December 2015.

With an increase of 84,547 persons over the year to June 2018, Queensland’s population increased by 1.7% over the year.

The 84,547 person increase in population the greatest annual increase since March 2013 and 2.5% higher than the previous year.

South Australia’s population increased by 12,466 persons over the 12 months to June 2018 resulting in a population growth rate of 0.7%.

The 12,466 person increase in population was 12.5% higher than over the previous year.

The population of Western Australia increased by 21,684 persons or 0.8% over the past year.

The annual change in population rose 5.2% over the quarter and 19.0% over the year to be the greatest it has been since June 2015.

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Tasmania’s population increased by 5,687 persons or 1.1% over the 12 months to June 2018.

The population change was the greatest it has been since June 2009 and 4.5% higher over the quarter and 16.2% higher over the year.

Northern Territory’s population declined by 236 persons over the 12 months to June 2017, a year earlier, the population had increased by 1,839 persons.

In the Australian Capital Territory, the rate of population growth was recorded at 2.2% over the past year resulting in an increase in population of 8,877 persons.

Net overseas migration has eased but most of the migration continues to occur in NSW and Vic

Most of those people immigrating to Australia continue to choose to settle in either NSW or Vic with the two sates combining to account for 73.1% of net overseas migration over the past year.

MigrationNSW accounted for 37.5% of net overseas migration nationally and Vic accounted for 35.5%.

If you add in the 12.5% in Queensland, the three most populous states accounted for 85.6% of national net overseas migration.

Although NSW had net overseas migration of 88,836 persons over the past year, net overseas migration was -15.8% lower than the previous year and the lowest it had been since June 2016.

Over the 12 months to June 2018, there was net overseas migration of 84,143 persons in Vic which was -7.8% lower over the year and the lowest annual figure since December 2016.

Qld’s net overseas migration was recorded at 29,628 persons over the past year which was -13.1% lower than over the previous year but slightly higher than the figure over the previous two quarters.

Over the past year there were 12,642 net overseas migrants to SA which was 3.8% higher than the number a year earlier and the greatest it has been since June 2010.

 

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Net overseas migration to WA is well below historic peaks however, the 13,494 net migrants to the state over the past year was 12.4% higher than over the previous year and has trended now for five quarters.

Net overseas migration for Tasmania was recorded at 2,475 persons which was 5.6% higher than a year earlier.

The 800 net overseas migrants to the NT over the past year was -56.6% lower than the number over the previous year and the fewest since June 2004.

The ACT had net overseas migration of 4,737 persons over the past year which was 14.2% higher than the number over the previous year and the highest on record.

Source: Corelogic Quarterly Economic Review – released February 2019

NOW READ:  Future Population Growth and it’s effect on our Property Markets

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Tim Lawless

About

Tim heads up the Core Logic RP Data research and analytics team, analysing real estate markets, demographics and economic trends across Australia. Visit www.corelogic.com.au


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