Much is said about wage growth and the expectation that it will increase once unemployment falls. Many dismal scientists have been claiming a return to half-decent wage growth of yonks, yet it remains lost, allusive at best. I have been writing for some time that wage growth is likely to remain low and many of…
I think it is worth adding some clarity to the regional population growth bumf that has been doing the rounds in recent weeks. Chart 1 below shows two lines. The grey line displays net annual internal population movement away from the combined eight Australian capital city statistical divisions to ‘regional’ Australia according to the most…
The macroprudential regulations are very loose at present. This coupled with record low-interest rates plus HomeBuilder, are the reasons for the housing market’s current heat. I expect that the financial rules will be tightened soon, followed by interest rate rises. Several banks are already starting to lift their medium-term rates. A short period of inflation…
Here are my three tables of base case numbers regarding future housing demand by lifecycle segmentation. Table 1 outlines my segmentation of the Australian population by lifecycle age groups. Table 2 shows the size of the Australian population by lifecycle segment for June 2020 and what is estimated to happen in mid-2025. The actual population…
I have posted several missives in recent months about regional population growth. This communique claimed that the move from the capital cities to regional locales due to Covid-19 is a short-term occurrence and is even overstated when you have a closer look. It seems that others share that view too, with some calling the current…
If 2020 taught us anything at all, it is that some numbers are thrown around as if they are vital yet many of us don’t really know if they are true; actually, important or what they even mean. More often than not, we don’t have a simple set of baseline reference points to help ground…
When you read, hear, or are told something statistical-based it is helpful to have a base case to make a comparison. This base case intel is the ‘bird’s eye’ statistical perspective – a helicopter’s view so to speak – whilst what we mostly hear or are told is from a ‘worm’s eye’ viewpoint or from…
This week in our Stuff Worth Knowing series we cover detached house sales. Tables 1 and 2 outlines the number of detached houses and median values across the eight capital cities and the other top 20 major urban spaces in Australia. Market size is important. Too often real estate conversations are focused on price and,…
There are several cross-currents running through the Australian rental market at present. My inbox is filling up with ‘please explain’ rental-focused emails. Some are confused as to why vacancy rates are falling in many places, yet population growth has dropped, sometimes markedly. Others don’t see how rents can be rising when unemployment and under-employment remain…
This week let’s discuss some things from overseas. Overseas migration Overseas migration, like internal migration, involves a net result, being people arrive from overseas, whilst others leave Australia to live elsewhere. Chart 1 shows that – pre Covid – some 10,000 people each week where arriving from overseas, whilst 6,000 folks were leaving Australia, again…
