There is a clear relationship — a causation not a correlation — between the annual change in housing finance (when brought forward by six months) and the annual movement in house prices. These two charts help explain the short-term future direction of Australian house prices. Chart 1 suggests that house prices are likely to surge…
Want to know how Australian property values have performed over the last 140 years? Earlier this year I wrote a missive titled Bust? That post held a long-range chart that I cut and pasted from an academic study by Nigel David Stapledon from the Australian Business School of Economics at the University of New South…
The top end of town just keeps getting stronger, if table 1 is any indication. The Covid19 pandemic, along with the current monetary, fiscal, and tax settings in Australia, has been kind to those who own property and especially many in the baby boomer cohort. Many of these wealthy baby boomers are looking for a better housing…
The latest federal budget suggests that positive net overseas migration is forecast to return in fiscal 2023. Chart 1 shows past net immigration trends and current federal treasury forecasts.: The current net immigration forecast is as follows: 2020-2021 -96,600 2021-2022 -77,400 2022-2023 95,900 2023-2024 201,100 2024-2025 235,000 It is interesting that the federal bean counters…
At its core, real estate is about demand and supply. When demand exceeds supply, then values often rise. When supply is greater than demand, values either plateau or fall. The degree of rise or fall often relates to the magnitude of the demand and supply imbalance. I have included six charts this post – three…
I knew that I would be writing about internal migration several times this year as I expected that there would be a lot of talk about Covid’s impact on domestic population movements. Well, that talk is happening and much of it is noise. So, please bear with me. Synopsis If you believe the media one…
We know that much of the housing market’s current heat is being driven by cheap money, easy finance, and recent government incentives. Owner residents and especially first home buyers have led the charge, with investors now joining the fray. New construction has been the big winner and, in this space, detached houses are beating attached…
Apparently, there are some 290,000 job vacancies across Australia. Chart 1 shows that the number of jobs available have skyrocketed since the middle of last year. These days I spend one week in five away from my home office. I have travelled to several states already this year and tripped interstate for seven weeks last…
The federal government advised last week that over 121,000 people had applied for grants under its $2.5 billion HomeBuilder scheme, which closed at the end of March. It is estimated that around 80% or just under 100,000 of these grants we issued for new builds. The government has now given builders until 30th September 2022…
I am showing my age but when I read about rapidly rising house prices, I think here we go again, more BS about a housing bubble. In recent months house price rises have paralleled those that occurred in the late 1980s – the monthly rise of 2.8% in March was the strongest jump in house…
