The latest federal budget suggests that positive net overseas migration is forecast to return in fiscal 2023. Chart 1 shows past net immigration trends and current federal treasury forecasts.: The current net immigration forecast is as follows: 2020-2021 -96,600 2021-2022 -77,400 2022-2023 95,900 2023-2024 201,100 2024-2025 235,000 It is interesting that the federal bean counters…
At its core, real estate is about demand and supply. When demand exceeds supply, then values often rise. When supply is greater than demand, values either plateau or fall. The degree of rise or fall often relates to the magnitude of the demand and supply imbalance. I have included six charts this post – three…
I knew that I would be writing about internal migration several times this year as I expected that there would be a lot of talk about Covid’s impact on domestic population movements. Well, that talk is happening and much of it is noise. So, please bear with me. Synopsis If you believe the media one…
We know that much of the housing market’s current heat is being driven by cheap money, easy finance, and recent government incentives. Owner residents and especially first home buyers have led the charge, with investors now joining the fray. New construction has been the big winner and, in this space, detached houses are beating attached…
Apparently, there are some 290,000 job vacancies across Australia. Chart 1 shows that the number of jobs available have skyrocketed since the middle of last year. These days I spend one week in five away from my home office. I have travelled to several states already this year and tripped interstate for seven weeks last…
The federal government advised last week that over 121,000 people had applied for grants under its $2.5 billion HomeBuilder scheme, which closed at the end of March. It is estimated that around 80% or just under 100,000 of these grants we issued for new builds. The government has now given builders until 30th September 2022…
I am showing my age but when I read about rapidly rising house prices, I think here we go again, more BS about a housing bubble. In recent months house price rises have paralleled those that occurred in the late 1980s – the monthly rise of 2.8% in March was the strongest jump in house…
Much is said about wage growth and the expectation that it will increase once unemployment falls. Many dismal scientists have been claiming a return to half-decent wage growth of yonks, yet it remains lost, allusive at best. I have been writing for some time that wage growth is likely to remain low and many of…
I think it is worth adding some clarity to the regional population growth bumf that has been doing the rounds in recent weeks. Chart 1 below shows two lines. The grey line displays net annual internal population movement away from the combined eight Australian capital city statistical divisions to ‘regional’ Australia according to the most…
The macroprudential regulations are very loose at present. This coupled with record low-interest rates plus HomeBuilder, are the reasons for the housing market’s current heat. I expect that the financial rules will be tightened soon, followed by interest rate rises. Several banks are already starting to lift their medium-term rates. A short period of inflation…
