We know that much of the housing market’s current heat is being driven by cheap money, easy finance, and recent government incentives. Owner residents and especially first home buyers have led the charge, with investors now joining the fray. New construction has been the big winner and, in this space, detached houses are beating attached…
Apparently, there are some 290,000 job vacancies across Australia. Chart 1 shows that the number of jobs available have skyrocketed since the middle of last year. These days I spend one week in five away from my home office. I have travelled to several states already this year and tripped interstate for seven weeks last…
The federal government advised last week that over 121,000 people had applied for grants under its $2.5 billion HomeBuilder scheme, which closed at the end of March. It is estimated that around 80% or just under 100,000 of these grants we issued for new builds. The government has now given builders until 30th September 2022…
I am showing my age but when I read about rapidly rising house prices, I think here we go again, more BS about a housing bubble. In recent months house price rises have paralleled those that occurred in the late 1980s – the monthly rise of 2.8% in March was the strongest jump in house…
Much is said about wage growth and the expectation that it will increase once unemployment falls. Many dismal scientists have been claiming a return to half-decent wage growth of yonks, yet it remains lost, allusive at best. I have been writing for some time that wage growth is likely to remain low and many of…
I think it is worth adding some clarity to the regional population growth bumf that has been doing the rounds in recent weeks. Chart 1 below shows two lines. The grey line displays net annual internal population movement away from the combined eight Australian capital city statistical divisions to ‘regional’ Australia according to the most…
The macroprudential regulations are very loose at present. This coupled with record low-interest rates plus HomeBuilder, are the reasons for the housing market’s current heat. I expect that the financial rules will be tightened soon, followed by interest rate rises. Several banks are already starting to lift their medium-term rates. A short period of inflation…
Here are my three tables of base case numbers regarding future housing demand by lifecycle segmentation. Table 1 outlines my segmentation of the Australian population by lifecycle age groups. Table 2 shows the size of the Australian population by lifecycle segment for June 2020 and what is estimated to happen in mid-2025. The actual population…
I have posted several missives in recent months about regional population growth. This communique claimed that the move from the capital cities to regional locales due to Covid-19 is a short-term occurrence and is even overstated when you have a closer look. It seems that others share that view too, with some calling the current…
If 2020 taught us anything at all, it is that some numbers are thrown around as if they are vital yet many of us don’t really know if they are true; actually, important or what they even mean. More often than not, we don’t have a simple set of baseline reference points to help ground…
