Unprecedented population surge: fueling a housing boom across Australia’s top states

Record population growth will increase housing demand, both to buy and rent.

Australia’s population growth has bounced back big time after the Covid restrictions and the country’s annual increase is currently close to 625,000.

This likens to a 12,000 increase in the country’s population per week.

This is twice the annual average population increase over the past decade.

The big winner – when comparing 2023’s population increase with the past decade annual average – is New South Wales and Victoria.

This is because these states attract the lion's share of Australia’s immigration.

Queensland and Western Australia also attract a high level of overseas migrants.

These states also attracted all of the net interstate migration – that is internal population movements within Australia – during 2023.

So, in summary, Victoria increased by 182,000 new residents last year; New South Wales up by 172,500 people; Queensland by 138,500 and Western Australia by 86,750.

This equates to 3,500 people per week in Victoria; 3,350 in New South Wales; 2,650 in Queensland and 1,650 in Western Australia.

These four states captured 92% of Australia’s population growth during 2023.

Looking forward

The latest estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggest that Australia’s population is expected to increase by 390,000 new people per annum over the next decade and this is 10% higher than the annual increase (excluding the Covid period) than the previous ten years.

Yet when looking at the next five years the annual average population across Australia is expected to be 395,000.

It must be borne in mind that 2023 was a catch-up year, after the population movement restrictions resulting from the Covid pandemic.

Net immigration and overall population growth in Australia were much higher than anticipated last year.

Last year’s high level of population growth cannot be sustained.

So, between now and 2027, Australia’s population is expected to grow by 2.3 million more residents, lifting the total population from 26.6 million to 28.9 million.

We will need to build the equivalent of another Perth – in terms of population size – to accommodate this projected growth.

There will be the need to build some 1.2 million new dwellings – 240,000 each year – over the next five years to accommodate this expected increase in people.

Some 80% of this growth is expected to settle in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland.

When including Western Australia these four states will likely hold some 90% of the population increase between now and 2029.

About Michael Matusik Michael is director of independent property advisory Matusik Property Insights. He is independent, perceptive and to the point; has helped over 550 new residential developments come to fruition and writes his insightful Matusik Missive