Birth numbers rebound in 2021 – but is it the whole story?

Towards the end of each year, the ABS releases data on the number of births and deaths across the country.

The birth data generates significant interest, and more so this year as the fertility rate increased for the first time in many years.

While the number of births, and the fertility rate, are important social indicators, they don't tell the full story in terms of population change.

This blog looks at natural increase (births minus deaths) in Victoria.

How many births are there in Australia?

In 2021, the number of birth registrations in Australia was just shy of 310,000.

This was a 5.3% increase on the 2020 figure of 294,369.

Since 2008, births have generally exceeded 300,000 each year, but the fertility rate has declined since that time.

It reached a low of 1.59 in 2020, before increasing slightly to 1.70 in 2021.

It's important to recognise that the ABS data is based on registrations and these numbers can be influenced by lags in the process.

This might be parents delaying registration, administrative issues, or in the case of Victoria, delays introduced by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns.

The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare releases data on the actual number of births, which are sourced from the National Perinatal Data Collection.

This data shows that in 2020, there were 295,976 babies born in Australia - a slightly higher number than that published by the ABS.

How many births are there in Victoria?

In 2021, there were 76,414 birth registrations in Victoria, resulting in a fertility rate of 1.53.

Only the ACT recorded a lower fertility rate in 2021 (1.45).

The ABS notes that lockdowns have created higher-than-usual delays in registrations, so it's possible that the number of births is slightly higher.

For instance, 12% of births that occurred in 2020 were registered in 2021, a proportion that was much higher in Victoria than in other states.

Some of these are likely to be births that occurred towards the end of the year, but others will have occurred as a result of delays associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The LGA with the highest number of births registered in 2021 was Casey (5,464) followed by Wyndham (4,825) and Hume (3,767).

These are all large LGAs on Melbourne's urban fringe where growth is driven by a combination of natural increase and net migration.

Outside of Melbourne, the largest number of births was recorded in the regional city of Greater Geelong (3,159), more than double the number in Greater Bendigo (1,459), another LGA focussed on a regional city.

Although Casey recorded the highest number of births, the resulting fertility rate was just 1.87.

The highest fertility rates tend to be recorded in rural LGAs with small populations.

West Wimmera recorded the highest fertility rate in 2021 (2.65) but was based on just 42 births.

In fact, West Wimmera has held this title since 2018, but during that time the number of births has ranged between 40 and 55.

Natural increase

While the number of births is important for planning early years services such as kindergartens (and ultimately schools), populations don't grow and change on births alone.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) and migration are the two components of population change.

When the number of births exceeds the deaths, the population will continue to grow unless the level of out-migration is higher than the difference.

The concept is similar in areas where the number of deaths is higher than the number of births, but migration needs to be at a level to cancel the difference.

The level of natural increase differs significantly across Victoria, as shown in the map below.

The areas shaded green are those that recorded more deaths than births, ie natural decrease.

These are the areas that may record population decline if the level of migration is not high enough to offset the difference between births and deaths.

A total of 26 LGAs recorded a natural decrease, but most of the numbers were quite small.

The highest level of natural decrease was recorded by Mornington Peninsula (-181).

It was the only LGA in metropolitan Melbourne to record more deaths than births.

The age profile is older, which provides the demographic momentum for a higher number of deaths.

The darker shades of purple represent LGAs where the level of natural increase was highest.

They are similar to those that recorded the highest number of births.

As indicated above, population growth in these areas is driven by family households and young couples.

They have large populations and a younger age profile.

Casey and Wyndham recorded the highest levels of natural increase (3,927 and 3,912 respectively).

There were nine LGAs where the level of natural increase exceeded 1,000.

Only one was located in regional Victoria, and this was Greater Geelong (1,034).

In general, LGAs in regional Victoria that recorded higher levels of natural increase were those with large regional centres, or peri-urban LGAs located beyond metropolitan Melbourne.

Summary

Fertility rates are a key social indicator but they don't tell the whole story with regard to population change.

The number of deaths is important, and the difference between births and deaths is termed natural increase.

The way natural increase interacts with the level of migration determines how populations grow and change.

In Victoria, natural increase is highest in LGAs on the metropolitan fringe where growth is driven by young families.

Conversely, areas with older population profiles are more likely to record a natural decrease.

About Simone Alexander Simone Alexander is a demographic consultant with more than 20 years of experience working in both the public and private sectors. She uses her expertise to blog about demographic trends, housing and planning issues in Australia’s cities and regions.
Visit demogblog.blogspot.com