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[Podcast] The Big Picture – economic & property trends you must understand – November 2021 with Pete Wargent

[Podcast] The Big Picture – economic & property trends you must understand – November 2021 with Pete Wargent
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Since Australia’s economy and our property markets don’t operate in isolation, I regularly have a look at the big picture, the macroeconomic factors affecting not just Australia’s economy, but the world economy to help us understand what’s ahead for us, and I do this in these Big Picture Podcasts with Pete Wargent.Michael Pete Wargent

While regular listeners know Pete well, if you’re new to this podcast, firstly welcome, because I see there are thousands of new listeners every month, but the reason I’m keen to discuss these matters with Pete is not because of his academic credentials as a Chartered Accountant, Chartered Secretary or because he has a Financial Planning Diploma.

But I enjoy these chats because of the credible perspective Pete brings on what’s happening around the world.

Since our chat, last month Australia’s circumstances have rapidly evolved, and we’ve got a lot to discuss. Listen in as we discuss the big picture and then I’ll share my mindset message.

The Big Picture

With Covid related restrictions being lifted, life is getting back to a more Covid normal, and the pent-up demand from the last couple of months should ensure our property markets continue to perform strongly moving forward.

Recently Westpac upgraded its forecast for Australian dwelling prices again.

They are now expecting property prices to rise 22% for the full calendar year 2021 (up from its previous forecast of 18%) and they have also lifted their outlook for next year from 5% to 8%.

But how is APRA’s intervention going to interfere with this?

And how are all the world economic challenges including the financial problems of China’s big property developer Evergrande going to affect us here in Australia

There are lots to discuss this month so I’m looking forward to my regular Big Picture podcast with economic analyst Pete Wargent, a lifelong student of and commentator on our economy – hello Pete.

Topics Pete and I Discuss Today:

  • What to look forward to on the other side of lockdowns.
    • As Sydney and Victoria open up, they should see strong boosts to their economies. Recession Australia Note Money Economy Squeeze Tighten Save Saving Budget Cut 300x200
  • The IMF says that the global economic recovery is continuing, even as the pandemic resurges.
    • Vaccine access and early policy support are the principal drivers of the gaps.
  • The global economy is projected to grow 5.9 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022, 0.1 percentage points lower for 2021 than in their July forecast.
  • Chinese property developer Evergrande is going bust
    • The fallout from that looks like the Chinese government is attacking its mega-corporations and has in the process thrown all international bond debt holders under the bus.
  • Household savings are expected to hit at least $200 billion this year, which boosts the economy
    • The economy is also boosted by a lot of construction projects
  • 281,000 Australians lose their jobs because of Delta, but people are starting to gear up for the reopening of their industries
  • The combined value of all residential real estate in Australia is now over $9 trillion, from $8 trillion in April
  • Regulators are aiming to gently apply the brakes to the housing market, rather than slam them on.
  • To invest in property, it’s smart to continue to look for areas that have always performed, rather than the new hotspot.


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Pete Wargent’s new Podcast

Some of our favorite quotes from the show:

“While people think China is a communist country, it really isn’t when you travel there and see how many private enterprises there are.” –Michael Yardney globe-economy-growth-health-world-heart-decline-map

“Unlike previous booms, this one is being driven mainly by owner-occupiers, not investors.” –Michael Yardney

“Wasn’t that long ago, everyone was predicting unemployment in double-digit figures, and property values dropping 10, 15, 20 percent.” –Michael Yardney


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Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and one of Australia's 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media.

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