Sydney and Melbourne house prices have just recorded their first monthly rise since April, and I think that’s an important signal for anyone wondering where our property markets are heading as we move towards 2027.
Many commentators had written off our two biggest markets this year, after four interest rate rises, major changes to property taxes and a big cut in migration. 
Yet Melbourne led the nation in October, with house prices up 0.6% over the month, and Hobart and Sydney also moved higher.
Meanwhile Brisbane, one of the stars of the last few years, recorded the biggest monthly fall of any capital city, and Perth and Adelaide also went backwards.
According to Dr. Andrew Wilson's My Housing Market, national house prices are still 3.8% lower than they were a year ago, but the rate of decline has roughly halved in a month as the spring selling season brings buyers and sellers back.
Today Dr Wilson and I look at what’s driving this shift and why national unit prices have just recorded their first annual fall since mid-2023.
We’ll also cover why unemployment at its highest level since COVID could change the RBA’s thinking on rates, and why the government’s new investor tax changes are likely to push rents higher, not lower.
Most importantly, we’ll talk about what all this means for you if you’re thinking of buying, selling or building your portfolio over the next 12 months.
Stick around to hear why this could signal an early recovery, and what it means for buyers and investors.
Takeaways
- Spring selling season lifts sales as buyers return
- Melbourne's three-year slump now offers buyers cheaper entry prices
- Brisbane's boom cools as higher rates push prices down
- Rate rises lose bite as markets adapt
- Rising unemployment pressures the Reserve Bank to hold rates
- Fewer international students raise unit vacancies, flattening rents
- Buyers enjoy lower prices and less competition right now
- Perth still leads year-to-date growth despite higher rates
- Brisbane units slump after a 26.7% two-year surge
- Canberra units rising 1.7% shows pockets of strength
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