Key takeaways
National house and unit prices fell over the January quarter, reflecting seasonal holiday effects and affordability pressures.
The national median house price declined 0.2% over the quarter but remains 6.7% higher annually.
Unit prices dropped 0.7% over the quarter but are still 5.6% higher year-on-year.
House prices are expected to rise again in 2025, albeit at a slower pace than in 2024.
Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide are likely to continue outperforming, while Melbourne lags behind, awaiting a confidence boost. Sydney should see steady gains, but affordability constraints may temper growth.
The housing market has softened at the start of 2025, but long-term fundamentals remain strong. Migration, low unemployment, and potential rate cuts will likely support a moderate price rebound later in the year.
National home prices have commenced 2025 lower, with most capitals recording monthly falls for houses although results for units were more positive overall.
The national capital city median house price declined by 0.2% to $1,162,091 over the January quarter compared to the December quarter results, according to the latest data from My Housing Market.
The national quarterly house price has nonetheless increased over 22 of the past 24 months, is still higher by 6.7% over the year ending January 2025 and has risen by 15.9% over the past two years.
Brisbane and Perth were the top capital city performers over the quarter with house prices higher by 0.8% and 0.6% respectively followed by Canberra up 0.2%.
All other capitals reported falls in house prices with Melbourne down 0.3%, Sydney falling 0.4%, Adelaide lower by 1.2%, Darwin down 1.7% and Hobart falling 2.3%.
House prices however have increased significantly in a number of capitals over the year ending the January quarter 2025, with Perth the top performer up by 21.8% followed by Brisbane up 13.1%, Adelaide higher by 12.5% and Sydney up 5.4%. Darwin annual house prices increased by 1.1%, with Canberra up 0.4% however Melbourne and Hobart fell by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively over the year.
| Quarterly Median House Prices January 2025 | ||||
| Median | Month | 1 Year | 2 Year | |
| Sydney | $1,647,395 | -0.4% | 5.4% | 16.3% |
| Melbourne | $1,047,464 | -0.3% | -0.7% | 2.1% |
| Brisbane | $1,011,959 | 0.8% | 13.1% | 28.9% |
| Adelaide | $962,399 | -1.2% | 12.5% | 24.9% |
| Perth | $975,062 | 0.6% | 21.8% | 42.8% |
| Hobart | $668,041 | -2.3% | -0.9% | -6.2% |
| Darwin | $616,956 | -1.7% | 1.1% | -6.1% |
| Canberra | $956,268 | 0.2% | 0.4% | -0.7% |
| National | $1,162,091 | -0.2% | 6.7% | 15.9% |
Apartment / unit prices
National unit prices were also lower over the January quarter compared to the previous December quarter, falling by 0.7% to $657,337 but remained 5.6% higher than the January quarter 2024 result.
Volatile Hobart was the top performer over January with unit prices rising by 7.2% followed by Brisbane up 1.8%, Canberra up 1.2%, Adelaide higher by 1.1%, Perth up 0.2% and Darwin steady.
Sydney and Melbourne unit prices however fell by 1.1% and 1.5% respectively.
| Quarterly Median Unit Prices January 2025 | ||||
| Median | Month | 1 Year | 2 Year | |
| Sydney | $767,482 | -1.1% | 3.6% | 8.3% |
| Melbourne | $552,944 | -1.5% | -1.1% | 1.8% |
| Brisbane | $584,689 | 1.8% | 24.9% | 43.7% |
| Adelaide | $532,131 | 1.1% | 19.4% | 36.7% |
| Perth | $513,600 | 0.2% | 23.5% | 38.0% |
| Hobart | $551,164 | 7.2% | 18.1% | -0.7% |
| Darwin | $368,080 | 0.0% | 3.3% | -0.8% |
| Canberra | $506,498 | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| National | $657,337 | -0.7% | 5.6% | 11.1% |
Similar to houses, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide have recorded clearly the highest annual unit price growth over the year ending the January quarter 2025, up by 24.9%, 23.5% and 19.4% respectively.
Hobart annual unit prices are now higher by 18.1% with Sydney, Darwin and Canberra up by 3.6%, 3.3% and 0.3% respectively.
The Melbourne annual unit price however is down 1.1%.
Comment
Capital city housing markets have again produced generally weaker results over the January 2025 quarter compared to the previous December quarter results.
Annual home prices however continue to report positive growth although outcomes are mixed between the capitals.
- Also read:Perth housing market update | February 2025
- Also read:Sydney housing market update | February 2025
- Also read:Melbourne housing market update | February 2025
- Also read:Latest property price forecasts for 2025 revealed. What’s ahead in our housing markets in the next year or two?
- Also read:Australian housing market update [CoreLogic’s video] | February 2025
Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have remained clearly the top performers with each maintaining remarkable growth in home prices over the past year.
Sydney continues to record solid increases for both house and unit prices, with Melbourne however remaining a clear underperformer compared to the other major capitals.
Darwin and Canberra's annual house price growth continued at a modest pace with Hobart slightly lower.
Unit prices were higher over the past year for all the smaller capitals although Canberra was up marginally by 0.1%.
The 2025 housing market has commenced with lower home prices over the January quarter that, similar to the relatively subdued December 2024 quarter results, reflect the usual seasonal effects of holiday distractions resulting in significantly reduced buyer and seller activity, particularly in higher-priced market segments.
Solidly rising prices through 2023 and 2024 have predictably increased affordability barriers that are also impacting price outcomes and flattening market cycles.
2025 will likely continue to produce robust results in the boom-time markets of Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth although prices growth is set to be lower than the heady results of 2024.
Sydney is set to continue to report solid results with the Melbourne market likely to remain in the doldrums overall and clearly awaiting a lift in confidence - particularly in the inner-suburban prestige markets that have continued as clear local regional under performers.
Underlying drivers will continue to support housing market activity generally, with the increasing prospect of a rate cut earlier rather than later in 2025 if realised, will act to refuel housing market activity and generate higher home prices.
The national economy remains strong with continuing low jobless rates and surging jobs growth driving solid wage increases – and will be enhanced by lower interest rates if and when they are implemented.
Continued higher levels of migration over the shorter term will add to current chronic housing undersupply supporting high rents and low vacancy rates generally in capital city rental markets - although recent signs of rising rental supply through reduced tenant demand are now consolidating with rental growth easing.
High rents and higher prices generally however continue to provide clear incentives for first-home buyers and investors chasing solid investment returns.
Capital city housing markets generally recorded higher house and unit prices over 2003 and 2024 but have predictably commenced 2025 with more subdued results consistent with holiday period markets and falling affordability.
National home prices are however set to record positive growth again over 2025 although likely lower than the 2024 results but enhanced by the growing likelihood of lower interest rates and supported by ongoing solid to strong results from Brisbane and Perth.
