Understanding how Covid lockdowns have impacted certain individuals and industries, helps to inform us about how quickly the economy and markets may recover. With this in mind, I thought it was useful to share a number of charts published recently by the RBA and banks which provide important and interesting insights. Covid has discriminated against younger workers…
It is my observation that investment-grade apartments in Melbourne have under-performed (from a capital growth perspective) compared to houses over the past 8 to 10 years. That is, apartments have generated very little capital growth (sometimes none), whereas houses have grown in value by between 5% and 8% p.a. over the same period. I have…
The government made an important announcement last week. This change could substantially increase your borrowing capacity in the next year. It is perhaps the most significant change that has occurred in the last decade and will further fuel property price growth. I also wanted to update you on interest rates, particularly in light of recent…
When you visit a financial advisor and receive advice, are they sharing their opinion or facts? Many people think they are relying on a subjective opinion when they seek financial advice. The fact is that you don’t have to take this leap of faith. I can prove why a certain approach or strategy is the…
Investing well is important. However, investing well over long periods of time is most important. Everyone would agree that making a one-time 50% return on an investment is a wonderful outcome. But making a 7% return each year for 40 years is a far better outcome, as it multiplies your initial investment by a factor…
According to the ABS, the number of people refinancing their mortgage increased by over 63% in the year to May 2020. Quite often people think the only reason to refinance is to obtain a lower interest rate. However, this thinking is incorrect. Typically, you don’t need to refinance to obtain a lower interest rate (more about…
Melbourne’s Covid transmission outbreak has been widely publicised by the media. Melbourne’s daily positive test rate is relatively benign by world standards (i.e. 0.5-0.6% versus 7.5% in the USA). However, the reinstated 6-week lockdown of Melbourne is likely to have a negative impact on Australia’s economy. Melbourne is responsible for producing over 19% of Australia’s…
There have been a number of economists and commentators who have predicted that property values will fall anywhere between 10% and 32% this year. It seems like it’s almost become a competition for who can be the most bearish. However, my view is a lot less bearish. I believe property values won’t fall by more…
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CBA Economics stated last week that property price declines are “inevitable”. It has forecast that prices will fall by circa 10% in Melbourne and Sydney over the next 6 months. It cited many reasons for this forecast including higher unemployment, lower economic activity, lower mortgage volumes, falling rents and fewer overseas buyers. I wanted to…
Over the past few years I have observed a strong trend of investment-grade house prices growing a a much faster rate than apartments. It is true that all markets move in cycles and all cycles come to an end, eventually. It’s my thesis that several factors (such as the fall in the volume of new…
