So, will inflation raise its head and lead to higher-than-expected interest rates? Five reasons for low inflation 1. Unionised labour is now a fraction of what it used to be. Large collectively negotiated annual wage increases appear to be a thing of the past. This is turn has led to lower inflation. 2. The world…
Articles by Michael Matusik
Michael is director of independent property advisory Matusik Property Insights. He is independent, perceptive and to the point; has helped over 550 new residential developments come to fruition and writes his insightful Matusik Missive
When thinking about a missive I often ask quiz myself about the topic. ‘Questions to myself’ so to speak. I also think that Q+A webinars and presentations work much better than the typical ‘I deliver, you listen’ approach. Anyhow, here are five questions and my answers to the current APRA move in an attempt to…
There is quite a range of conjecture at present when it comes to the number of people working from home and whether this trend is going to retain some permeance once we return to some form of normality. I wrote about working from home in the early days of Covid and you can revisit that…
This week’s post is about population growth. I usually don’t post about population stuff until December each year as I like to use the stats for the full financial year, but the recent ABS release warrants some commentary as it represents the first full year of Covid-affected population growth. And affected it was. Australia’s population…
There is a clear relationship — a causation not a correlation — between the annual change in housing finance (when brought forward by six months) and the annual movement in house prices. These two charts help explain the short-term future direction of Australian house prices. Chart 1 suggests that house prices are likely to surge…
Want to know how Australian property values have performed over the last 140 years? Earlier this year I wrote a missive titled Bust? That post held a long-range chart that I cut and pasted from an academic study by Nigel David Stapledon from the Australian Business School of Economics at the University of New South…
The top end of town just keeps getting stronger, if table 1 is any indication. The Covid19 pandemic, along with the current monetary, fiscal, and tax settings in Australia, has been kind to those who own property and especially many in the baby boomer cohort. Many of these wealthy baby boomers are looking for a better housing…
The latest federal budget suggests that positive net overseas migration is forecast to return in fiscal 2023. Chart 1 shows past net immigration trends and current federal treasury forecasts.: The current net immigration forecast is as follows: 2020-2021 -96,600 2021-2022 -77,400 2022-2023 95,900 2023-2024 201,100 2024-2025 235,000 It is interesting that the federal bean counters…
At its core, real estate is about demand and supply. When demand exceeds supply, then values often rise. When supply is greater than demand, values either plateau or fall. The degree of rise or fall often relates to the magnitude of the demand and supply imbalance. I have included six charts this post – three…
I knew that I would be writing about internal migration several times this year as I expected that there would be a lot of talk about Covid’s impact on domestic population movements. Well, that talk is happening and much of it is noise. So, please bear with me. Synopsis If you believe the media one…