The ABS has recently released new data on the size of Australia's overseas born communities.
At June 2020, there were 7.65 million people in Australia who were born overseas, comprising 29.8% of the population.
Where were these people born?
What are the fastest-growing communities?
What is their age structure?
How does this relate to the 2021 Census? Read on to find out.
Main birthplaces of the overseas-born community
The table below shows the overseas-born communities in Australia that have a population of at least 100,000 persons in 2020.
Comparisons are made to the 2016 population, as this roughly coincides with the last Census.
There are 17 countries in this list, headed by England with a population of 980,360.
This was followed by India (721,050) and China (650,640).
Since 2016, the Indian born population has increased by almost half, and now comprise 2.8% of the total population.
In contrast, the population born in England has declined slightly since 2016.
At that time, there were just over 1 million England born in Australia, but the numbers declined by 2.2% to reach 980,360 in 2020.
This is despite strong overseas migration numbers, particularly skilled migrants since that time.The England born community has an older age profile with a median age of 57.7 years.
There has been a long tradition of migration to Australia from that country and the number of younger migrants from England are not sufficient to offset the ageing of this community.
When all countries that comprise the United Kingdom are considered, the trend is the same.
In 2016, there were 1.202 million persons born in the United Kingdom, but this had declined by almost 3% to reach 1.173 million in 2020.
Scottish born persons recorded the largest decline between 2016 and 2020.
Only the islands of Jersey and Guernsey had larger populations in 2020 compared to 2016, but these populations are very small and therefore had little impact on the overall numbers.
Of the major overseas-born communities, Italy and Greece recorded the largest decline between 2016 and 2020 (-9.2% and -8.6% respectively).
This is a continuing trend as these communities continue to age.
Most Italian and Greek-born people arrived in Australia during the 1950s and 1960s, and in 2020 they have a median age in excess of 70 years.
As such, their numbers are declining in line with rising mortality.
However as I've shown in previous blogs, measuring the size of a community is more than just a birthplace - language and ancestry are other considerations.
Age structures tell a story
In many ways, the age structure of overseas-born communities reflects the history of migration to Australia from individual countries.
The graph below shows the age structure of the Indian born and the England born communities at 2020.
These are the two largest overseas-born communities in Australia, but their age structures are very different.
Clearly, the England born community is much older, with almost 18% of the population aged 75 years and over.
This compares with just 2.4% of the Indian born community.
England has always been an important source of migrants to Australia, reflecting the strong social and economic ties over two centuries.
The median age has increased over the last two decades, from 50.9 in 2000, to 57.7 in 2020.
But importantly, the number of people aged 25-54 has declined, whereas those at the upper end of the age spectrum have increased.
Some of this relates to the ageing in place process, but it may also reflect a shift to temporary visas such as working holiday and skilled visas.
Today's English migrants to Australia may not view a move as permanent as their older counterparts did.
In a globalised world, they may move elsewhere, or back home, after a few years in Australia.
The Indian born community is much younger, with a median age of 34.68 years.
The wave of recent migration is reflected in a large proportion (almost 60%) of the population aged 25-44 years. One in three of the Indian born population are aged in their 30s.
Many Indian born people come to Australia as permanent settlers rather than temporary entrants.
In contrast to the England born community, all age cohorts born in India increased in size over the period 2000-2020.
But interestingly, the median age declined.
It was 41.2 years in 2000, but declined to just 29.7 years in 2009, but has increased to 34.7 years since then.
Like England, there is a long history of migration from India.
The number of arrivals from India increased in the late 1960s and early 1970s, before declining again in the 1980s.
However, the more recent wave of migration from India has dwarfed those numbers and changed the demography of this community.
Should these trends continue ie the rapid growth of the Indian born community, a declining and ageing England born community, it's possible that India will become the largest overseas-born community in Australia by the end of the 2020s.
Of course, COVID-19 and the international border closure have changed the game considerably, but the momentum is there.
What might the 2021 Census show?
A key attribute of this ABS data release is that it provides more recent information on the size of the overseas-born population and how it has changed since the last Census.
It also provides a preview of what we might expect when the 2021 Census is conducted later this year.
Although the closure of Australia's international border has all but stopped migration, the momentum of the years prior to that will still be apparent in the statistics.
For example, England, India, China and New Zealand will remain the major overseas-born communities.
Those with older age profiles such as Italy and Greece will continue to decline.
But perhaps of greater interest are the growing overseas-born communities.
Of these, the Nepalese born has recorded the largest increase since 2016.
Their numbers have more than doubled, from around 59,000 in 2016 to 131,830 in 2020.
Nepalese migration to Australia is very much a 21st-century phenomenon.
Many arrive as international students and remain in the country afterwards.
In 2000, there were only 2000 Nepalese born persons in Australia, but their numbers increased rapidly from around 2006.
In 2020, they were the third-largest source country for international students behind India and China.
Despite the increase in the size of the Nepalese born community, there is currently no further breakdown of their spatial pattern of residence.
This is one reason why Census data is so important - the fine-grained spatial perspectives are critical for planning services for multicultural communities.
2016 Census data shows that more than half of the Nepalese community lived in Sydney, particularly in the middle ring of western and southwestern suburbs.
More recent data from the Dept of Home Affairs indicates that the majority of Nepalese born people settle in NSW, so it's likely that the spatial pattern will be similar when the 2021 Census is held.
Other countries to record large increases in their communities were Bhutan (99%, ie basically doubled), Syria (86%) and Colombia (74%).
Interestingly, Adelaide and Perth were home to around half of the Bhutan born population in 2016.
More recent data indicates that Western Australia is still the main destination for migrants from Bhutan.
Summary
Overseas born people comprise almost 30% of the population and number 7.65 million.
The main countries of birth are England, India and China.
Persons born in England have a median age of 57.7 years, and their overall numbers have declined slightly since 2016.
Conversely, the Indian born population increased by more than half between 2016 and 2020.
The age structure is much younger, with a median age of 34.7 years.
Of the major overseas-born communities in Australia, Nepal has recorded the largest increase since 2016, whereas the Italian and Greek-born populations have declined in line with rising mortality.
The 2021 Census will reveal much more than overall numbers, including spatial patterns of residence and other socio-economic characteristics.
