Is 2026 the year Australia’s housing market splits in two?
We’ve had another interest rate rise. There’s talk of tax reform. Global political instability is back on the radar. And yet, in some cities, entry-level property prices are still surging at double-digit rates. 
So what’s really going on?
Are we heading for a slowdown… or are supply shortages and strong demand about to push prices higher again?
Today I’m joined by Dr Nicola Powell Chief of Research & Economics for Domain, and while we’ll unpack their latest First Home Buyer Report, this conversation goes much further than that.
Because what’s happening to first home buyers is a leading indicator.
It tells us where demand is building, where pressure is intensifying, which cities are reshuffling their affordability rankings, and where mortgage stress is becoming structural rather than cyclical.
We're also going to talk about what's ahead for our property markets this year in light of interest rate and tax changes.
Takeaways
- Domain’s First Home Buyer Report examines future housing market trends in Australia.
- The report shows rising entry-level prices in Brisbane and Perth.
- Saving for deposits is harder as prices outpace wages, notably in Sydney and Brisbane.
- Mortgage stress is increasing across capitals, affecting houses and units.
- The rental market is tight, with modest rent growth expected.
- Policy reforms should focus on supply, with faster approvals and smarter zoning.
- Changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing need a balanced approach.
- Modest price growth is expected, driven by population and migration.
- Victoria is a fast-growing area with high housing demand.
- No housing market crash is expected; markets remain fragmented.
Links and Resources:
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Dr Nicola Powell - Chief of Research & Economics for Domain:
Domain’s First Home Buyers Report here.
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