A valid point is raised here by fund manager roger: there’s an awful lot of focus on population growth in Australian property market analysis, and not nearly enough on trends in household formation. The comment was posted in relation to another finely balanced article on roger’s blog, entitled “PREPARE TO LOSE ENORMOUS [PROPERTY] WEALTH”.=…
The 2016 Census showed that Australia still has an ageing population, and the number of deaths continues to rise to record highs, in turn meaning that the natural increase in the population has been slowing. The ageing of the population has been combated through the immigration programme, which is largely – if not exclusively -…
Employment growth shattered expectations with an 11th consecutive monthly gain, tearing up by +54,200 in August, including another +40,100 surge in full-time employment. It’s a case of choose your favourite statistic here: more than quarter a million jobs created in six months would have to be one of the most impressive, while annual full-time employment…
Let me say out the outset that I have a great deal of respect for banking giant UBS. In fact, I have to say that, as I’m speaking at their flagship European Conference in London in November, on the subject of household debt no less. UBS Global Research put out a report this week stating…
The ABS released its household incomes and wealth figures for the 2016 financial year. I’m going to keep this post very simple today – you could spend hours torturing these numbers to fit a preconceived viewpoint, and, alas, I’ve got better things to do. Instead, just three observations. 1. Firstly, mean gross household incomes, after…
There are several possible risks facing Australia’s housing markets: a change in sentiment leading people to stop buying homes, the crackdown on investor lending, rising interest rates, and a glut of new homes to be absorbed. I heard Tapas Strickland of NAB note that he just can’t see a meaningful housing correction coming looking at…
A quick look at how land prices have risen across each of the main capital cities over the past half decade. Melbourne’s land prices were flat for years, but are now ripping higher on supply shortages and rapid population growth. Sydney has seen by far the greatest land price inflation in its median vacant lot…
The photo below right was taken at the men’s 100 metres final at the Seoul Olympics in 1988. I can’t quite recall what happened to the poor ailing chap in lane two, but with arm outstretched, Canada’s Ben Johnson has raised his finger aloft to the heavens to signify that he is just about to…
Credit growth eases The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reported credit growth of +5.3 per cent over the year to July 2017, a fair bit slower than the +6.6 per cent seen a year earlier. The slowdown has partly been a reflection of business credit growth ambling along at an annual rate of +4.2 per…
Another day, another property bust article from me old mucker Roger Montgomery, this time in Professional Planner: Usually when writing financial articles or documents there’s an internal checking process that goes something like this: “Does this make sense? No, this does not make sense.” – but for some reason this doesn’t seem to apply when…