Here’s a quick summary of the Australian economy (well the one that really matters). Let’s call it 10 Things Economic. 1. Working longer hours for less pay per hour. 2. Stuff all wage growth, which is unlikely to change – digital stuff, automation, the internet of things, baton change to service industries and importantly low/declining productivity. 3. Many already underemployed, with…
There is a lot of new construction going on. We have been experiencing a building boom and are now getting set for a surge in new infrastructure. Both are largely influenced by government pump-priming — high levels of migration; low interest rates; loose foreign ownership/investment rules and debt. True, that without this, our rate of economic…
So much is written about housing prices these days that it makes my head spin. And it’s so easy to get distracted by the distortion. After 30 years of doing this stuff I can tell you that it is somewhat easy to understand what is happening when it comes to housing prices. Whilst housing prices…
The ABS annual regional population dataset now includes details about population growth type. A change in population is dependent on three things: 1. Natural increase — in short, births versus deaths. 2. Net internal migration — this means movements within the country, including interstate moves but also movements within the same state or territory. 3. Net overseas…
This Missive I want to cover Queensland’s improving population growth and its potential impact of property values. There are four charts this post to help me explain to you what I think is going on. But before we get into them lets quickly summarise where things are at when it comes to population growth. Australia’s…
Here are some facts on capital city house price growth over the last decade Two tables this missive. The first looks at median detached house values by capital city and the second looks at house values by general location within our five major capitals. Capital cities Capital city Median house values % change (pa) House…
Here are four charts about the likely direction of house prices. I update these four charts about this time each year. I have found that these four indicators are good bellwethers when it comes to future house price movement. My thesis is a simple one: 1. If more people have a full-time job then more households…
The International Monetary Fund believes that the Australia economy is likely to grow between 2.5% and 3.0% per annum over the next five years. This is less optimistic than the current budget papers. The IMF believe that there is no mining boom on the horizon and dwelling construction’s contribution to economic growth is likely to…
Today I want to cover economic growth. Not the big yawn that we had to put up with over the last week or so – GDP this, chain volume measure that – but some simple stuff, like where does economic growth take place and in what places is it growing or contracting. To me this important…
Much has been written of late about Australia’s rate of population growth. Some say high migration is needed, others it is a Ponzi scheme. A few are suggesting a plebiscite to set an annual target. This week we will look at past population growth and the current projections. 4 Key Urban Trends If I was…
