Articles by Guest Expert

Homeowners will face mortgage rates near 5.5% in a little over a year, according to a survey of 22 leading Australian economists. The Conversation’s 2022-23 forecasting survey predicts an increase in the Reserve Bank’s cash rate from its present 0.85% to a peak of 3.1% by next August. If fully passed on, the series of…

“Stagflation” is an ugly word for an ugly situation – the unpleasant combination of economic stagnation and inflation. The last time the world experienced it was the early 1970s when oil-exporting countries in the Middle East cut supplies to the United States and other supporters of Israel. The “supply shock” of a four-fold increase in…

Imagine today’s high inflation like a car speeding down a hill. In order to slow it down, you need to hit the brakes. In this case, the “brakes” are interest rate hikes intended to slow spending. However, some central banks are hitting the brakes faster than others. This graphic uses data from central banks and…

Since 2001 our research group has asked 2,000 Australians every year how they’re doing. Are they satisfied with their standard of living, their relationships, purpose in life, community connectedness, safety, health and future security? We’ve asked them through good times and bad, through wars and global financial downturns, fires and floods. And now through years…

When Labor leader Anthony Albanese couldn’t quote Australia’s unemployment rate in the first week of the election campaign, many said it didn’t matter. The Australian Bureau of Statistics figure was “meaningless”; “fudged”; “manipulated”; and didn’t count all those who had been registered for JobSeeker. The truth is the official measure of unemployment does what it…

If you’re building or renovating a home and are frustrated with huge delays, you’re not alone. Australia’s builders are struggling to find timber. For items such as laminated veneer lumber – used for frames and beams – they’ve reported waiting up to four months. For trusses – used to build walls and roofs – up…

It is 15 years since Apple released what’s arguably its flagship device: the iPhone. A decade and a half later, there are few products that have managed to reach a similar level of brand recognition. Announced to an eager audience in 2007, the iPhone has revolutionised how we communicate and even how we live day…

The Reserve Bank of Australia is about to be put under the microscope in the first major review of its performance in at least 30 years, and perhaps forever. In research published this month in the Economic Record, Australian Labor member of parliament Andrew Leigh and I analyse how the bank has set interest rates…

How resilient will countries be in 2022? Economies have to contend with commodity shortages related to the Russia-Ukraine war, supply chain issues due to lockdowns in China, and tightening monetary policy as inflation rises. In light of these challenges, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its economic predictions for 2022 and beyond. The IMF…

The world’s biggest nation is about to shrink. China accounts for more than one-sixth of the world’s population. Yet after four extraordinary decades in which China’s population swelled from 660 million to 1.4 billion, its population is on track to turn down this year, for the first time since the great famine of 1959-1961. According…