The first few weeks of 2019 have already brought many interesting predictions and forecasts for property.
In today’s show, I’m going to share 5 property market predictions that will definitely happen in 2019.
I also have a chat with John Lindeman.
We’re going to find out what his research suggests about how long this property downturn is going to last.
The next boom might be closer than you think.
5 Property market predictions guaranteed to happen in 2019
Around this time each year, it’s customary for those of us in the property industry to peer into the future in an attempt to predict what’s ahead for our housing markets in the coming year and beyond.
Making property predictions is not an exact science, but I can safely make five predictions that I am certain will be true for 2019.
- Most predictions will be wrong!
My first prediction for the year is that it will be a bad year for those in the prediction business.
I’m sure this will be correct as most of the economic and property experts get it wrong despite being armed with all the research available in today’s information.
- Many things won’t happen, and others will.
Many of the predictions for 2019 won’t happen and a lot of things will happen this year that no forecaster thought to include in their predictions because market movements are far from an exact science.
- Some forecasts will be right
I predict that a small number of the many economic and property forecasts for 2019 will accidentally come true and those who randomly predicted them will claim to be experts, despite the fact that it was the first time they got one of their hundreds of forecasts right and that they adjusted their forecasts over the year.
- I believe that most property investors will get it wrong this year.
This one is simple –they always do!
And I’m not talking about those who fail to take action this year, those who don’t even get into the market, even though that will be a big mistake this year.
- Those who get it right will do very well.
And my last prediction is that those property investors who get it right will do very well out of real estate this year and set themselves up for the years ahead.
Those who saw previous property downturns as a countercyclical opportunity have consistently done well for themselves. They recognise the slower market as a chance to invest when others are too afraid to buy and when there are more willing sellers in the market than purchasers.
A few more property predictions for 2019.
The big factors that will affect our property markets this year will be :
- The availability of finance,
- Consumer confidence and
- The result of the Federal election.
If our property markets slump further this year the RBA has the ability to lower interest rates as it has often done in the past, or APRA can loosen the screws and allow investors and home buyers borrow more freely.
I can’t see any indication of a rate rise in 2019 – if anything they should fall, but the RBA doesn’t like to fiddle with rates in the months leading up to an election.
Of course, any fallout from the Haynes Royal Commission into Nanking will further affect the bank’s willingness to lend and possibly their need to lift rates out of cycle.
This means there will be further moderate price falls especially in Melbourne and Sydney and there are likely to be significant price falls for new and off the plan apartments.
In the meantime, other markets including Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart will keep rising in value.
So, our real estate markets will remain fragmented, but there won’t be a crash.
Despite all the doom and gloom we hear in the media, things will not fall in a heap.
Why am I so confident about this?
Because history is a great teacher!
And history tells us that over time, the value of well-located properties always go up and investors who stay in the game for the long term always do well.
Why the next property boom is not far away
- Despite the warnings from property pessimists who expect a continuing and significant downturn in our property markets, history suggests that this is unlikely. There have only been three such significant downturns in the property market between 1901 and today:
- During the Great Depression, when the property prices fell 26% over 6 years
- During the credit squeeze in the 1960s when property prices fell by about 18% between 1960 and 1967
- In the fallout from the Global Financial Crisis, when property market prices fell by 8-10% between 2008 and 2012
- In each previous case, price crashes were precipitated by a share market crash. That leads to a lack of housing finance, which causes house prices to fall.
- That’s very different from market conditions we’re experiencing today. Currently, we have a growing economy, low unemployment, and low interest rates.
- The difference here is that the credit squeeze is self-induced. It’s not caused by the economy, a share market crash, wages falling or unemployment rising. Banks are responding to possible fallout from the Royal Commission on Banking by tightening up their lending approval processes.
- The main leading indicator that suggests when the next boom is coming is population growth. Australia has one of the biggest population growth rates in the world, mainly from people arriving from overseas, but also interstate growth.
Links and Resources:
National Property Market and Economic Market Update 1 Day Trainings Coupon Code: podcast
John Lindeman– Lindeman Reports
Some of our favourite quotes from the show:
“Every year there is an X-factor – an unpredicted factor, either locally or from abroad, that impacts our markets – sometimes positively, sometimes negatively.” –Michael Yardney
“As for luck, I’ve always thought that hard work creates good luck.” –Michael Yardney
“The sooner you’re able to recognize and praise greatness, the better chance you’re going to have of replicating it.” –Michael Yardney
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