How will Australia change in the next 40 years?


How will Australia change over the next 40 years?

That’s one of the many questions answered in last week’s Intergenerational Report.

It’s projections should help government, businesses and investors plan for the future.


Overall the news is good – Australians are living longer and their incomes are rising.

The nation is in its 24th year of consecutive economic growth.

More money continues to be spent on health and education, and the job of budget repair is heading in the right direction.

Pete Wargent summarised his thoughts in this great blog – What’s ahead for investors over the next 40 years.

The Sydney Morning Herald  put some interesting graphics around the report  as follows:


Population in 2055:  39.7 million

Life expectancy in 2055:

Males 95.5 years up from 91.1 years today.

Females 96.6 years up from 93.6 years today.

40,000 people to be aged 100 and over, up from about 5000 today and 122 in 1975.

Number of people aged 15-64 for every person aged 65 and over:

2.7 in 2055

4.5 in 2015

7.3 in 1975

Annual income:

$117,300 up from $66,400


Labour force participation: 62.4% from 64.6% today.

Aged workforce participation (those 65+) to rise to 17.3% from 12.9% today.

Economic growth will average 2.8 per cent a year for next 40 years (compared with 3.1 per cent for the past 40 years).

Productivity growth to average 1.5 per cent (average of last three decades).


(under the government’s proposed trajectory)

Healthcare: $2830 per person in 2015 to $6460 per person in 2055 (4.2% of GDP to 5.5% of GDP).

Aged care: $620 per person in 2015 to $2000 per person in 2055 (0.9% of GDP to 1.7% of GDP).

Age and other pensions: $2000 in 2015 to $3200 in 2055 (2.9% of GDP to 2.7% of GDP).


Other welfare (ie disability pensions and family tax benefits)

$3100 per person in 2015 to $3700 per person in 2055 (4.5% of GDP to 3.2% of GDP).


$1200 per person in 2015 to $1200 in 2055 (1.7% of GDP to 1% of GDP).

National Disability Insurance Scheme

$20 per person in 2015 to $1000 per person in 2055 (0% of GDP to 0.9% of GDP).


$1200 per person in 2015 to $2300 per person in 2055 (1.8% of GDP to 2% of GDP).

Read more at the Sydney Morning Herald



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