Where is the next property hotspot?

As our property markets show signs of life again, many investors recognise that this cycle will be different to the last, one of more subdued growth. So in order to outperform the markets one of the common questions asked is “where’s the next hot spot?”

People who ask for my opinion are usually disappointed that I don’t know and that in fact I don’t really care.

I tell them I’m not in the business of speculating; instead I make my investment decisions based on proven long-term performance, rather than shorter term speculation.

Fact is hot spotting – seeking out the “next big boom” location – is speculation and not true property investment. And if you look at the track record of people chasing the next trend, it’s been pretty poor.

On the other hand to “invest” in property requires the intention of generating long-term capital growth that tracks above average long-term price growth for the area.

Now, here’s what I find interesting…
A lot of the “hot spots” predicted by some of Australia’s property analysts turned out correct. Some of the regional areas and mining towns boomed…at least for a while as investors chased up prices.

But unless they got the timing right, chasing the next hotspot turned out disastrous for many investors.

Some are left with properties worth considerably less than they paid, with less rental income than they expected and they are unable to sell their properties today as buyers have now abandoned these markets which have little depth from local demand.

If you’re into investing in short-term trends, being right isn’t what’s important. It’s being right at the right time that counts.

Very few can do that, so the history of investors trying to find the next boom town is littered with people who get the story right and the outcome wrong.

My system for building wealth
Instead I buy in areas that have a proven long-term history of outperforming the average capital growth and are likely to continue to outperform because of the demographics of the people living in the area.  And of course I like buying the property for the right price – below its intrinsic value.

But I’m getting ahead of myself…I’ll explain this a little later on.

Hotspotting is virtually the opposite to this sensible, not-so-sexy, tried and tested system for successfully building a property portfolio.

Let’s have a closer look at a few other reasons why I steer clear of looking for hotspots…

1. Hot spotting is about short-term speculation, not long term wealth creation.
Most property investors are trying to build their asset base so that one day it can replace their personal exertion income. The key to building a substantial property portfolio is to use your first property to leverage into your next property, and then use those two properties to leverage into more investments and so on.

You will only have the ability to do this if you invest in locations that consistently provide long-term capital growth.

By definition, ‘hotspots’ are not these types of areas, because just as quickly as they heat up, property values in these locations can come off the boil and cool very quickly. Just look what happened to many of the mining towns or seas changes locations like Mandurah.

2. Hot spotting often means following the crowd and more often than not, the crowd gets it wrong!
Many trying to buy in the next hot spot get their advice from online reports or “get rich quick” seminars and in the short term some of these predictions are self-fulfilling.

If you suddenly get a diverse group of investors buying up in a small town that usually has little market depth, this tends to push up prices “proving” this area really is a hot spot.

What’s really happening though is that you’re seeing an over-inflated market that’s more often than not unsustainable in the long term. Some of our mining towns, the Gold Cost and Sunshine Coast are great examples of this phenomenon.

On the other hand strategic investors buy counter cyclically, when others are afraid to get into the market.

3. Hot spotting requires accurate timing, yet most investors don’t have the necessary knowledge to know when it’s the best time to buy.
Sure some ‘hotspots’ have excellent potential to generate long term capital growth, but these are rare. For example, there’s the inner-city suburb that’s yet to take off because while it’s on the verge of gentrification and still has an air of industrialisation.

[sam id=37 codes=’true’] While some investors can pick these areas before the market takes off, timing markets like this is difficult.

The real problem is that by the time you find out about the next hotspot, it may be too late to benefit from that substantial early growth, or the opposite could be true – you might end up jumping in too early and not reaping rewards for many years. And in the meantime, your money has been tied up and you’ve missed out on real opportunities in proven areas.

A great example of this is inner western Melbourne suburb of Footscray which has been “going to improve” for the last 35 years – but just hasn’t!

4. Hot spotting is usually based on opinions rather than facts.
When you read articles in the media or hear reports on TV that suggest an area is about to take off as the “next big thing”, in reality you’re simply being given someone’s opinion.

Be careful – are they biased because they have properties to sell and it suits them to be spruiking a certain area?

You’re better off to rely on your own research and due diligence, rather than blindly accepting a so-called expert’s potentially biased advice.

5. Hot spotting can generate short-term inflation in suburbs that can’t sustain a high level of price growth over the long term.
Today’s hotspot could be tomorrow’s over heated market!

For example, when the resources boom hit Western Australia and far north Queensland, thousands of investors jumped on the bandwagon and bought into the many mining towns that sprung up overnight and became a buzz of activity.

But now that the resources sector has cooled off many of these towns have gone from boom to bust as the major industry supporting the local economy came crashing down.

I know of many investors who are still having trouble offloading their under performing properties in these mining towns and regional centres which were yesterday’s hotspots.

My suggestion is avoid the excitement of hotspots. This may make your investment boring, but it allows the rest of your life to be more exciting as you growth your wealth.

So what’s the alternative?
To ensure I buy a property that will outperform the market averages in the long term I use a 4 Stranded Strategic Approach. 

  1. I buy a property below its intrinsic value
  2. In an area that has a long history of strong capital growth and one that will continue to outperform average capital growth because of the demographics of the people living there. I look for affluent areas where people are prepared and can afford to pay a premium to live, or gentrifying areas where a wealthier demographic is moving in and pushing up prices as they improve the area
  3. I look for a property with a twist  – something unique, or special, or different or scarce about the property, and
  4. A property where I can manufacture capital growth through refurbishment, renovations or redevelopment.

By following this approach I minimise my risks and maximise my upside.

Each strand represents a way of making money from property and combining all four is a powerful way of putting the odds in my favour. If one strand lets me down, I have two or three others supporting my property’s performance.

 

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About

Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and his opinions are regularly featured in the media. Visit Metropole.com.au


'Where is the next property hotspot?' have 18 comments

  1. Avatar for Property Update

    November 27, 2014 luke norman

    hi there.
    i love reading your tips and advice,me and my wife are thinking of buying a cheap block of land to hold onto for a few years then and maybe sell it for a profit later,do you have any suggestions on areas that are under $10,000

    Reply

    • Avatar for Property Update

      November 27, 2014 Michael Yardney

      Luke

      Be very careful – I can’t see you making money out of that strategy.
      Cheap land is cheap for a reason – it’s where no one wants to live -so why would it increase in value over the years. And when you take account purchase costs (around 5%) plus holding costs (no rent) plus selling costs – I can’t see any way you’ll win from this

      Reply

  2. Avatar for Property Update

    January 3, 2014 john

    Thanks Michael – the main reason is they say it is an area that is not desirable due to housing commission and crime – I agree with that right now – But my thought process was that the area has all the required infrastructure and within 20km to the city. Also I spoke to the council about this house and they told me that it is within their zone to build a 4 level apartment block ( also has the right frontage and land size stca ). I have not seen any other similar properties in other suburbs around that price range. But I see your point – stick to what has worked in the past increases your chances of success – Vs speculating on area improving. I grew up in sydney and this suburb really reminds of some of the rougher suburbs in Sydney in the eighties which are now quite healthy from a capital growth perspective. I will have to think about it !

    Reply

    • Avatar for Property Update

      January 3, 2014 Michael Yardney

      John
      The main point is this is speculation rather than investment.
      While you wait for this suburb to pick up and in the mean time suffer poorer returns, you money could be working much harder for you elsewhere

      Reply

  3. Avatar for Property Update

    December 25, 2013 Joel

    Great stuff, what’s your quick thoughts on blacktown? Would you recommend a unit/apartment or a house in the area?
    Thank you.

    Reply

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      December 25, 2013 Michael Yardney

      Joel
      I would avoid Blacktown, there are many better locations in Sydney such as the inner West – I’d buy an established apartment there with the ability to add value through renovations

      Reply

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        January 2, 2014 john

        Hi Michael – I agree with your principles totally – I would like to ask you though – I am looking at buying a 1000sq block with decent livable 4 bedroom house and extra large frontage on St Albans within 2 blocks of keilor plains station as long term strategy – do you think I am mad like some others do? price under $450K. This is within my price bracket and banking on the area improving over the next 10 years.

        Reply

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          January 2, 2014 Michael Yardney

          John thanks for your comments.

          I do not believe you have mad, but I would not spend close to half a million dollars in St Albans.
          Hoping an area is going to improve is not an investment strategy. If you’ve been following my blogs you will know my approach and there are much better areas to put your money in the Melbourne.

          By the way… why do you all friends think you’re mad investing there?

          Reply

  4. Avatar for Property Update

    December 24, 2013 Monica

    Where would be the best area to invest in Sydney? Our budget is 500k. Many thanks

    Reply

    • Avatar for Property Update

      December 24, 2013 Michael Yardney

      Monica
      I can’t really answer that for you not knowing your personal circumstances, what else you own and your investment strategy.
      Having said that, I’d suggest you start looking in Sydney’s Inner West for an established apartment. But with the hot Sydney market you must buy very selectively.
      Have you considered using the services of the team at Metropole http://Metropole.com.au. They don’t have any properties for sale, but will give you unbiased advice about where and what to buy

      Reply

  5. Avatar for Property Update

    December 22, 2013 Mary

    Hi Michael, great article! We are looking at buying a1bedroom off the plan apartment in Docklands, Melbourne. We hear there is an oversupply, what are your thoughts?

    Reply

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      December 22, 2013 Michael Yardney

      Mary
      Dockland does indeed have an oversupply of properties as well as a very poor history of rental growth and capital growth.
      There are many better places to invest

      Reply

  6. Avatar for Property Update

    December 22, 2013 Michael Kiki

    Hi Michael

    Must commend the great work you are doing on property
    What’s your thought on Darwin please?

    Reply

    • Avatar for Property Update

      December 22, 2013 Michael Yardney

      Michael
      Thanks for the kind words
      While Darwin has performed well in the past, it didn’t really do well last year and is likely to under perform the big 4 capital cities in the future.
      The Darwin property market is very investor driven and therefore more volatile. It will also miss out the strong population growth of the big capitals – remember DON’T chase hot spots – go for the security of the big cities

      Reply

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        June 20, 2014 Eddy

        Hi michael,

        Can you comment further about darwin,
        they have the defence force, agriculture, and oil and gas which is now signed and approved and estimated to last 40 years.
        with 40 years behind Darwin oil and gas alone, Can you explain what could go wrong?

        Also where do you recommend to invest in Perth?

        Reply

  7. Avatar for Property Update

    December 21, 2013 henry

    HI, Michael: I often see the sentence “—a property below its intrinsic value” used when I attend the seminar. What does it mean actually? For example, I want to buy a 2-bed apartment in south yarra, melbourne.

    Reply

    • Avatar for Property Update

      December 21, 2013 Michael Yardney

      Henry
      Please be very careful buying in South Yarra! Theer is a huge oversupply of properties in this suburb at present – both for sale and for lease and this will impact both capital growth and rental returns – and definitely steer clear of off the plan in South Yarra.
      What is your budget

      Reply

  8. Avatar for Property Update

    July 26, 2013 Sally Hogs

    Thanks for the sound advice
    I never understood why everyone was into “hotspots” – it’s just chasing the quick buck.
    Slow and steady wins the race

    Reply


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