Table of contents
This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State March 19th 2024 - featured image
By
A A A

This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State March 19th 2024

key takeaways

Key takeaways

Australia’s housing is so horribly undersupplied that I've rarely encountered a supply-demand inflection point like this.

Our combined capital cities have increased in value by 10.2% over the last year. That's very different to the pessimistic forecasts of double digit price falls made by the RBA and many of the bank economists only 12 months ago

And it's likely property prices and rents are going to keep increasing throughout 2024, albeit more slowly.

Sydney property prices increased 0.1% over the last week,  increased 0.4% over the last month and are 10.0% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Melbourne property prices remained flat over the last week,  but increased 0.2% over the last month, and are 3.8%  higher than they were 12 months ago.

Brisbane property prices increased by 0.3% over the last week, increased 0.9% over the last month and are 15.8% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Overall, Australian capital dwelling prices increased by 0.6% over the last month and are now 10.2% higher than they were 12 months ago.

This current property cycle has been driven by an undersupply of good properties relative to current demand pushing up property values and rents.

The depth of buyer appetite was again shown by this week's strong auction clearance rates despite 2,723 properties being put to auction as demand from buyers keeping up with the increased number of properties put to auction.

Australia’s housing is so horribly undersupplied that I've rarely encountered a supply-demand inflection point like this.

The depth of buyer appetite was again shown by this week's strong auction clearance rates despite 2,723 properties being put to auction as demand from buyers keeping up with the increased number of properties put to auction.

Easing inflation and the prospect of an earlier-than-expected rate cut are buoying vendor hopes and buyer appetites for property.

At Metropole we have never experienced the current level of enquiries from both investors and home buyers and based on indications from our teams on the ground in the 3 big capital cities, the property market has begun 2024 much stronger than most expected.

This is an interesting turnaround from the cooling markets of late 2023, where supply was increasing but demand was waning.

However beneath these headline results, housing market performance remains diverse around the country.

Moving forward, demand is going to continue to outstrip supply for some time to come as we experience high levels of immigration at a time when we’re just not building anywhere as many properties as we require.

At the same time, the cost of construction of delivering new dwellings will keep increasing not only because of supply chain issues and the lack of sufficient skilled labour but also because builders and developers will only commence new projects if they are financially viable and currently new projects will need to come on line at considerably higher prices than the current market price,

It will be much the same for our rental market where the supply / demand equation is so far out of balance that we’ve experienced an unprecedented rental crisis with historically low vacancy rates and skyrocketing rents and this will continue into 2024.

On the auction front, with 2,723 capital city homes going under the hammer last weekend, it was the second busiest week of auctions so far this year.

The preliminary clearance rate held up well under higher supply, coming in at 74.0%, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous week’s preliminary clearance rate (72.8% which was revised down to 68.0% on final numbers).

See Corelogic's full auction report below.

Property Cycle
Corelogic reports that:

  • Sydney property prices increased 0.1% over the last week,  increased 0.4% over the last month and are 10.0% higher than they were 12 months ago.
  • Melbourne property prices remained flat over the last week,  but increased 0.2% over the last month, and are 3.8%  higher than they were 12 months ago.
  • Brisbane property prices increased by 0.3% over the last week, increased 0.9% over the last month and are 15.8% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Overall, Australian capital dwelling prices increased by 0.6% over the last month and are now 10.2% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Clearly, the property cycle is moving on driven by an undersupply of good properties relative to steady demand from buyers.

Weekly Change 18 March

Monthly Change 18 March

12 Month Change 18 March

Source: CoreLogic March 18th 2024

Of course, these are "overall" figures - there is not one Sydney or Melbourne or Brisbane property market.

And various segments of each market are performing differently.

The more expensive parts of our capital cities are likely to outperform this year as the local residence will, in general, have more equity in the properties they are selling, and they won't be as sensitive to high interest rates and the high cost of living as the outer and new suburbs.

Monthly Change In Hvi

To help keep you up-to-date with all that's happening in property, here is my updated weekly analysis of data and charts as of 18th March 2024 provided by CoreLogic, and realestate.com.au.

Property asking prices

Property asking prices are a useful leading indicator for housing markets - giving a good indication of what's ahead.

Here is the latest data available for March 2024.

Sydney

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 1,887.405 -4.722 -1.7% 10.6%
All Units 793.750 0.850 0.0% 5.1%
Combined 1,447.330 -2.480 -1.4% 9.0%

Source: SQM Research

Melbourne

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 1,253.380 7.620 1.5% 7.9%
All Units 605.689 1.311 1.2% 2.0%
Combined 1,051.434 5.653 1.4% 6.6%

Source: SQM Research

Brisbane

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 1,059.581 4.401 1.8% 11.8%
All Units 580.478 0.822 0.5% 15.7%
Combined 940.439 3.511 1.6% 12.2%

Source: SQM Research

Perth

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 954.414 -1.801 1.7% 15.8%
All Units 497.004 6.496 3.0% 16.8%
Combined 835.644 0.354 1.9% 15.8%

Source: SQM Research

Adelaide

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 874.293 3.763 1.2% 13.8%
All Units 443.387 -3.087 1.3% 16.0%
Combined 797.026 2.534 1.2% 14.0%

Source: SQM Research

Canberra

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 1,204.100 2.337 0.3% 17.0%
All Units 598.427 -0.052 -0.7% 0.7%
Combined 984.932 1.473 0.0% 12.7%

Source: SQM Research

Darwin

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 659.100 0.500 -0.6% -3.4%
All Units 378.168 0.165 0.7% 0.9%
Combined 548.932 0.369 -0.3% -2.4%

Source: SQM Research

Hobart

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 805.965 3.632 1.2% 1.7%
All Units 505.110 -1.474 -0.9% 2.0%
Combined 760.776 2.865 1.0% 1.7%

Source: SQM Research

National

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 908.057 -1.759 1.3% 10.8%
All Units 534.897 -1.282 0.5% 5.9%
Combined 828.369 -1.657 1.2% 10.0%

Source: SQM Research

Cap City Average

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 1,351.430 -2.636 0.2% 11.1%
All Units 669.278 0.083 0.8% 5.7%
Combined 1,151.278 -1.838 0.3% 9.9%

Source: SQM Research

The value of property asking prices as a leading indicator for housing markets is quite significant.

In fact it's more valuable than median prices which can be quite misleading.

Let's delve into why this is the case and how it impacts the real estate market.

  1. Early Market Sentiment Indicator: Asking prices often reflect the current sentiment of sellers in the real estate market.
    If sellers are confident, they might set higher asking prices, anticipating strong demand.
    Conversely, if sellers are uncertain or perceive a market downturn, they might lower their asking prices to attract buyers.
    This makes asking prices a real-time indicator of market sentiment, often preceding changes in actual sales prices.
  2. Predictive of Future Price Trends: Trends in asking prices can be predictive of where the actual property prices are headed.
    For example, a consistent rise in asking prices over a period can signal an upcoming rise in transaction prices.
  3. Impact of Economic Factors: Economic factors such as interest rates, employment rates, and broader economic health influence asking prices.
    For instance, changes in the Reserve Bank of Australia's policies or shifts in the job market can quickly reflect in the asking prices, providing insights into how these factors are influencing the housing market.
  4. Regional Variations: In a diverse market like Australia's, asking prices can also provide insights into regional disparities.
    For instance, the property markets in Melbourne and Sydney might behave differently from those in Brisbane or Perth. Asking prices can give early indications of these regional trends.
  5. Influence of Supply and Demand: Asking prices are also a response to the balance of supply and demand in the market.
    In areas with limited supply and high demand, asking prices tend to be higher and vice versa.

However, it's important to note that while asking prices are a valuable indicator, they should not be used in isolation.

Other factors like actual sales prices, time on the market, auction clearance rates, and economic conditions also play crucial roles in understanding the property market dynamics.

READ MORE: The latest median property prices in Australia’s major cities

Last weekend's auction report

Preliminary clearance rate holds up under higher supply

With 2,723 capital city homes going under the hammer last week, it was the second busiest week of auctions so far this year.

The preliminary clearance rate held up well under higher supply, coming in at 74.0%, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous week’s preliminary clearance rate (72.8% which was revised down to 68.0% on final numbers).

Capital City Auction Statistics 18 March

Sydney was the only capital city to record a lower preliminary clearance rate, with 74.8% of auctions returning a successful result so far, down from 76.2% over the previous week (revised down to 71.1% on final numbers) and the lowest preliminary clearance rate so far this year.

Although the trend in clearance rates has been softening across Sydney, the success rate remains above the decade average of 72.2% on the preliminary rate and 68.1% on the final rate.

Melbourne’s preliminary clearance rate recorded a solid bounce back, rising to 72.4% after the previous week’s long weekend saw the preliminary clearance rate drop to 66.2% (revising down to 61.9% on final numbers).

Last week’s early result was the second highest so far this year, after the second week of February (73.1%).

With 1,387 auctions held, this was also the second-highest number of auctions held so far this year.

The preliminary clearance rate was up across the smaller capitals as well, led by Adelaide with a stunning 92.6% preliminary clearance rate.

Brisbane’s clearance rate came in at 71.9%, while Canberra’s preliminary clearance rate came in at 69.9%.

There were 181 auctions held across Brisbane last week, 159 in Adelaide, 110 in Canberra and 19 in Perth.

Four of the eight auctions reported in Perth so far were successful, while we are yet to receive the results of the three auctions in Tasmania.

City Clearance Rate Total Auctions CoreLogic auction results Cleared Auctions Uncleared Auctions
Sydney 74.8% 864 652 488 164
Melbourne 72.4% 1,387 1,067 772 295
Brisbane 71.9% 181 114 82 32
Adelaide 92.6% 159 81 75 6
Perth n/a 19 8 4 4
Tasmania n/a 3 0 0 0
Canberra 69.9% 110 73 51 22
Weighted Average 74.0% 2,723 1,995 1,472 523

Source: CoreLogic

Our rental markets

Our rental markets have been tightening further over the last few months, with vacancy rates for both houses and apartments extremely low across the country and asking rents rising rapidly.

Annual Change In Rental Rates To February 2024

Gross Rental Yields February 2024

Asking rents across the capital cities for houses had been rising in annual terms in the “double digits”, while for units, new asking rents are rising at faster rates, at over 20% in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.

The recently released National Accounts showed that Australia’s population has grown by around 620,000 people in the past financial year.

That’s the highest number in history and a hundred thousand more than what the May federal budget projected.

This record 2.8% expansion in the 15 plus age group of our population is placing a great strain on our rental markets.

The number of overseas students and also people on graduate visas in Australia has increased by just over three hundred thousand in the last financial year.

In particular rents have been rebounding across inner-city rental markets (popular with international students) after slumping during the pandemic when international borders were closed. 

While the pace of rental growth is likely to slow down, with current vacancy rates rents will continue to increase as there is a minimal new supply of properties set to enter the market in the medium-term future.

Sydney

Property Type Rent ($) Weekly change Monthly change  12 Months change
All Houses $1,054.16 4.84 1.3% 11.9%
All Units $703.58 2.42 1.5% 10.3%
Combined $846.03 3.40 1.4% 11.1%

Source: SQM Research

Melbourne

Property Type Rent ($) Weekly change Monthly change  12 Months change
All Houses $741.14 0.86 0.5% 15.1%
All Units $552.70 2.30 2.3% 10.3%
Combined $630.36 1.71 1.5% 12.6%

Source: SQM Research

Brisbane

Property Type Rent ($) Weekly change Monthly change 12 Months change
All Houses $713.73 -3.73 -0.7% 6.9%
All Units $571.40 2.60 0.7% 10.9%
Combined $649.68 -0.88 -0.1% 8.5%

Source: SQM Research

Perth

Property Type Rent ($) Weekly change Monthly change 12 Months  change
All Houses $778.11 -1.11 -0.2% 17.4%
All Units $580.10 5.90 1.7% 16.9%
Combined $695.35 1.82 0.4% 17.3%

Source: SQM Research

Adelaide

Property Type Rent $) Weekly change Monthly change 12 Months change
All Houses $638.38 -0.38 -0.1% 12.9%
All Units $457.72 -3.72 1.4% 12.7%
Combined $576.18 -1.53 0.3% 13.0%

Source: SQM Research

Canberra

Property Type Rent ($) Weekly change Monthly change 12 Months change
All Houses $751.84 -0.84 0.1% -1.6%
All Units $575.89 1.11 1.0% 2.1%
Combined $656.44 0.22 0.5% 0.1%

Source: SQM Research

Darwin

Property Type Rent ($) Weekly change Monthly change 12 Months change
All Houses $719.33 0.67 -1.6% 0.7%
All Units $492.08 -0.08 -2.6% 9.4%
Combined $583.97 0.23 -2.1% 5.0%

Source: SQM Research

Hobart

Property Type Rent 9$) Weekly change Monthly change 12 Months change
All Houses $543.75 0.25 0.3% -1.3%
All Units $463.96 1.04 -0.9% -3.5%
Combined $511.69 0.57 -0.1% -2.1%

Source: SQM Research

National

Property Type Rent ($) Weekly change Monthly change 12 Months change
All Houses $688.00 0.00 0.0% 8.3%
All Units $532 -4.00 0.4% 8.6%
Combined $615.48 -1.86 0.2% 8.5%

Source: SQM Research

Cap City Average

Property Type Rent ($) Weekly change Monthly change 12 Months change
All Houses $834 2.00 0.8% 12.1%
All Units $622 3.00 1.6% 10.5%
Combined $721.10 2.53 1.2% 11.4%

Source: SQM Research

Vendor metrics


As the following chart shows, houses are still being snapped up quickly by eager buyers.

Median Days On Market 3 Months To February 2024

At a national level, properties are taking slightly longer to sell than they were during the property boom of 2020 and 2021.

However, the number of days to sell a property is still relatively low (a sign of the tight supply situation for good properties), and vendor discounting is still at very low levels.

In general, houses are selling quicker than apartments, but the shortage of good properties on the market is seeing A-grade properties selling quickly with minimal discounting.

Median Vendor Discount 3 Months To February 2024

ALSO READ: Latest property price forecasts revealed. What’s ahead in our housing markets in the next year or two?

About Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and one of Australia's 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media.
75 comments

Hi Michael, I am an Australian citizen living overseas. We left Australia in 1996 and have a property in Sydney. We have a great estate agent who has managed the property for us. We would really like to sell it soon, but the CGT for non-residents sel ...Read full version

1 reply

Yikes Perth just 13 days to sell a property. Yields through the roof and we are about to have a substantial period of Capital growth due to the "Rising market" phase on the property clock.

1 reply

Hi Michael. We have a Qld propert being rented out for 600 pw purchased less than a year ago with tennants in place. We are being told in the current market we can get 720 to 790. This would be a huge hike for the lovely tennants. We are currently ...Read full version

2 replies
72 more comments...
Copyright © 2024 Michael Yardney’s Property Investment Update Important Information
Content Marketing by GridConcepts