Each Saturday morning I like to share some of the interesting property investment and economic articles I’ve read during the week.
I’ve put them here all in the one place for your easy reading.
Enjoy your weekend….and please forward to your friends by clicking a social link buttons on the left.
The end of the mining boom is near.
There was a good deal discussion during the week when both Deloitte’s Access Economics and BIS Shrapnel said our mining boom will be over before we know it.
Author and ex-Deloittian Peter Wargent took delight in reminding us in his blog that that this call of the end of Australia’s mining boom was “for a fantastic 8th straight year!”
He quotes a number of similar forecasts:
May 7, 2003, The Australian Financial Review:
‘The investment boom in the resources industry may be coming to an end, according to respected forecaster Access Economics.’
Sept 29, 2004, The Australian:
‘This is as good as it gets – the Australian economy is likely to grow much more slowly over the next financial year than it is growing at present, according to Access Economics.
Jan 24, 2005, The Age:
‘Australia’s trade woes will continue to plague the economy for years as a flood of mining investment around the world pushes commodity prices down, a leading forecaster has warned. Access Economics is predicting that the current account deficit – now at the highest level since Paul Keating issued his “banana republic” warning – will continue to disappoint…’
May 2, 2006, The Australian:
‘Commodity prices are likely to peak this year and are primed for a fall of up to 50 per cent, analysts warned yesterday as resource stocks again jumped sharply higher…a warning from…Access Economics that metal prices are poised to start dropping steeply from the end of the year. This year will be as good as it gets in metal markets, according to Access’s latest quarterly survey of 10 forecasters. Access said it was slightly more pessimistic on the outlook for prices than the forecasters.’
And then gives his thoughts on what the real numbers are doing.
Dispelling real estate myths
Another great Property Uncut show produced by Kevin Turner. If you don’t already subscribe to this excellent weekly Internet based radio show.
This week he has a heap of great guests:
- We continue the series of 20 Must ask questions with Margaret Lomas in the show today. These are questions that every smart investor knows will help make sure the investment they make in property is thoroughly researched to make it as sound as possible.
- I catch up with another 2 of our experts today in Michael Matusik and Peter Wargent. I asked Michael and Peter to tell me what they saw as the most common real estate myths that needed to be dispelled. They share them with us today and then go about dispatching them to the rumour file.
- We share yet another success story with you this week as I catch up with a young Melbourne couple – Brad and Keelie. With 2 young daughters, owning a sizeable chunk of their principal place of residence and a reasonable track record in the share market, why would they want to risk it all in property.
You should definitely subscribe to this weekly audio program. Click Here It’s free and you can listen on the go on your smartphone, iPad etc.
No Australian housing bubble, but tough times ahead for property market: David Koch
The Australian housing market is not in a bubble, according to Sunrise breakfast host David Koch, who says the market will start to turn around once the economy picks up and investor confidence returns.
Koch says anyone following the property market might be left a little bit confused by “contradictory news headlines and expert opinions” but says the bottom line is that in the medium term, “the tough times for Australian property appear set to continue”.
He says “there’s no bubble to burst, but prices are unlikely to have increased of late either”.
“A sharp global economic downturn would ensure they stayed this way for a while yet,” Koch writes in a thought piece for Yahoo7 Finance.
What’s really happening to property prices?
There has been a lot of mixed messages in the media lately about what’s happening to property prices.
RPData’s www.rpdata.com daily house price index suggests some of our capital city markets are rising, but other commentators are suggesting this data is inaccurate.
This interesting RicardianAmbialence blog is full of informative graphs showing that house prices (more than units) are increasing in our more expensive capital cities of Melbourne, Sydney and Perth.
Which Australian suburb is most popular with investors?
The Census provides some fascinating insights about the trends and geographic spread of renters. Based on figures from the 2011 Census, the proportion of dwellings which are rented has remained fairly consistent across Australia over the past decade.
Rented dwellings comprised 27.6% of all occupied homes back in 2001; ten years later the proportion had risen by only slightly more than one percentage point to 28.7%.
The Census data shows the biggest shift in dwelling tenure was seen in homes that are fully owned and homes that have a mortgage. The proportion of homes that are owned outright fell from 39.7% of all occupied private dwellings in 2001 to 31.0% in 2011. Conversely, the proportion of homes that are owned with a mortgage rose from 26.5% in 2001 to 33.3% in 2011.
This blog by RPData gives a fascinating insight into our changing demographics. Read more…
Investors surging back in Brisbane, Perth and Sydney but Melbourne left out
Investors are surging back into the housing market, according to Australian Property Monitors’ Dr Andrew Wilson.
May ABS housing finance figures show that the value of investor loans rose 26% over the month to the highest monthly total recorded since June 2010.
The value of investor loans approved over the first five months of the year rose 31% in Queensland and increased by 16% in WA and 6% in NSW, compared with the same period in 2011.
This is a good sign for our property markets as it’s a sign more investors are moving from the sidelines and getting ready to step into the market.
Property transactions to face increased ATO scrutiny in 2012-13
Each year the tax man tells us who he’s watching more closely.
This year small businesses that dispose of property, foreign owners of Australian property, individual tax payer with property investments and property developers will all face increased scrutiny from the Australian Tax Office (ATO).
Details of a crackdown on how property transactions are reported for tax purposes have been revealed in the ATO’s Compliance program for 2012-13, which highlights “particular issues” that will attract the attention of the taxman with a warning that it will “deal firmly with those who
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