The Economic State of Our States | ANZ August Stateometer

The ANZ Stateometer, which measures economic performance across the states and territories, continues to highlight the uneven economic growth across Australia Economy Conceptthe country.

  • New South Wales is posting well above-trend growth according to ANZ’s Stateometer, although growth has slowed sharply over recent months.
  • The Stateometer suggests that Victoria’s economy is growing slightly above trend.
  • After almost returning to trend earlier this year, Queensland’s growth continues to decelerate and is now significantly below trend.
  • Western Australia continues to expand at a well-below trend rate of growth, with a recent small improvement unwound.  The Northern Territory is also growing at a below-trend rate, although its momentum has improved significantly.
  • Tasmania, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory are all growing at near-trend rates.


Source: ABS, CoreLogic, National Australia Bank, Residex, SEEK, Westpac, ANZ Research

ANZ monthly stateometer by state:

New South Wales moderates further but remains above trend   

• The New South Wales index continues to signal that growth in economic activity is at an abovetrend rate.

• However, the smoothed index has fallen to its lowest level since early 2015, pointing to a marked slowdown in growth. This reflects slower growth across the labour market, the property market and the household sector.

• A broad slowdown in the underlying data suggests to us that the smoothed index will edge lower in July.


Victoria grows in line with trend

• Economic growth in Victoria is expanding at a slightly above-trend rate according to the smoothed state index.

• The index has been supported by the labour market, although the property market also remains a bright spot.


Queensland economy slows further

• After showing solid momentum through 2015, Queensland’s economic growth has steadily decelerated over the past few months and is now well below trend.

• The fall in the smoothed index reflects some weakness in the household sector, but a weaker labour market has played a larger role.

• The smoothed index is now back at the low reached in August and the underlying data suggest to us that there is a risk that growth slows further in July.


South Australia growth close to trend

• The index for the South Australia’s economy continues to signal growth is just below its trend rate, which is well up on last year’s low.

• A sizeable improvement in labour market conditions over recent months has driven the turnaround in the index this year.


Western Australia growth remains weak economy property market grow wealth house dream first home

• Economic growth in Western Australia remains at a significantly below-trend pace. The smoothed index improved slightly in April, but this has been unwound and the index is back at the seven-year low reached in January.

• The main drag on the index this year has been the labour market, although the contributions from both the housing market and the household sector have also been relatively weak.

• Based on the underlying data, we see a risk that the index weakens further in July, driven by the labour market and the housing market.


Tasmania’s growth picks up slightly

• After decelerating over the first months of 2016, Tasmania’s economic growth picked up slightly over the past two months and is now close to trend.

• The improvement in the index has been broadly based, with the property, business and household sector all growing at an about-trend pace.

• We see a risk that this improvement may be partly unwound in that the underlying data show that the labour market weakened in June.


Northern Territory’s momentum turns more positive

• Economic growth in the Northern Territory remains below trend but has steadily improved over the past three months.

 • After reaching a five-year low in March, the territory’s smoothed index has rebounded to its highest level since November 2015, which suggests to us that a turning point has been reached.

• The more positive momentum has been driven by the recent improvement in the labour market


The ACT’S growth remains above trend27238870_l

• Economic activity in the Australian Capital Territory is growing at a modestly above-trend rate, with the territory’s smoothed index showing a sharp pick-up in June.

• The smoothed index is at its highest level since February, which itself was the highest level since 2011.

• The key contributor to the improvement in the index is the buoyancy in labour market conditions.



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