National Housing Market Update | April 2019 [video]

This month we are covering off on housing market trends through to the end of March, which shows a moderation in the rate of value decline, but a broadening in the geographic scope of weaker conditions.

PropertyCoreLogic has released their newest housing market update for April 2019.

Although the CoreLogic national hedonic index series trended lower in March, the actual rate of decline has been easing over the past three months.

National dwelling values were down 0.6% in March, which was the smallest of the month-on-month declines since values fell by 0.5% in October last year.

While the pace of falls has slowed in March, the scope of the downturn has become more geographically widespread.

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Dwelling values were down across six of the eight capital cities over the months, with Canberra values holding firm while Hobart values were 0.6% higher.

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Outside of the capital cities, most of the “rest of state” regions also recorded a fall in values; the exceptions being regional Tasmania where values were half a percent higher and regional South Australia where values were up three-tenths of a percent.

The quarterly trend in dwelling values is showing a similar pattern, with six of the eight capitals recording a fall in values over the March quarter, led by Darwin, which was down 3.9%, followed by Melbourne where the market was down 3.4% and Sydney which recorded a 3.2% drop in values.

National dwelling values have been trending lower for seventeen months and have fallen by a cumulative 7.4% since peaking in October 2017.

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Despite the broad-based weakness, the national index remains 15.9% higher relative to five years ago, highlighting that most property owners remain in a strong equity position.

Markets where values peaked much earlier have shown a more substantial downturn.

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In Darwin and Perth, where weak housing market conditions were driven by weaker economic and demographic conditions post-mining boom, dwelling values have fallen by a cumulative 27.5% and 18.1% respectively since peaking in 2014.

The silver lining here is that housing is now very affordable and first home buyers are proportionally much more active relative to other areas of the country.

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On the other hand, dwelling values remain at record highs across Hobart and regional Tasmania, and only marginally lower in Canberra, Adelaide and Brisbane, as well as regional Victoria.

Although housing market conditions remain relatively healthy in these regions, conditions have noticeably softened over the past twelve months with values either slipping or the pace of growth slowing materially.

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Tim Lawless

About

Tim heads up the Core Logic RP Data research and analytics team, analysing real estate markets, demographics and economic trends across Australia. Visit www.corelogic.com.au


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