Melbourne’s population to grow to 8 million

Melbourne’s population is likely to almost double to 8 million people by the middle of the century, with Victoria’s population swelling to around 10 million, according to a government report Victoria in Future.

Victorian Planning Minister Matthew Guy, suggested that 720,000 extra people will live within Melbourne’s suburban boundaries by 2031.

Regional Growth

The report predicts that more than half of the regional growth the state will see up until 2051 will come from people moving out of Melbourne to towns like Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo.

We’re having more babies

The report also showed the tide had turned on falling fertility rates. Mr. Guy said:

“Since the early 1970s, our fertility rate has been falling and the number of children born every year has remained virtually unchanged. But now that’s turned around, with twice as many babies expected to be born in 2050 than in 2000.”

This natural population increase would mean that, as a result of more children being born and a longer life expectancy, there would be an increase of 1.8 million people in Victoria by 2051.

Life expectancy for those born in 2051 is also expected to have increased to 87.6 years for males and 89.9 years for females.

Now if this isn’t going to underpin Melbourne’s property markets I don’t know what is!


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Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and one of Australia's 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media. Visit

'Melbourne’s population to grow to 8 million' have 2 comments


    July 20, 2014 VivKay

    Victoria’s TFR in 2007 was 1.889, and in 2012 it was 1.891. This is a minute difference, a slight increase in the overall number of births per woman, on a State level. Matthew Guy is obfuscating the real source of population growth in Victoria. It’s overwhelmingly from overseas migration! According to the ABS, et overseas migration contributed 241,000 to the population over the same period, accounting for 59 per cent of Australia’s total population growth. ABS: Victoria continued to experience record growth in net interstate migration, adding 7,500 people to its population in 2013, which is three times greater than in 2012 (2,300 people). It’s assumed that population growth is an indicator of economic growth, and it’s “good”, but it ignores the costs of growth – and the overloaded infrastructure, housing costs, and costs of living. Cut-backs to funding, and spending, in inverse proportion to population growth, is not good policy. The more of us there are, what we have must be shared between more people.



      July 20, 2014 VivKay

      Productivity is declining through loss of industries, traffic congestion, homelessness and all the infrastructure needed for growth! Already Australia has an infrastructure deficit of $770 billion! We need more industries, innovation and productivity, and better employment of our own human resources, not more housing growth!


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